Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

How Does Politics Work?

When I read criticisms of Colin Powell endorsing Joe Biden, I'm left to wonder: Am I missing something?

The case Jon Chait makes in support of pushing Powell's endorsement seems so obviously clear to me that I can't help but wonder if the arguments that Ezekiel Kweku make in the same piece contain some hidden understanding that has eluded me.

Partisans in both parties are pretty close to locked in, but there is an obvious sub-set of Republicans who are willing to break with Trump. In 2018, Democrats ran a massive (but narrow in some ways) wave to control the House. That wave passed through the suburbs and college educated whites. Trump's explicit appeal to white ethnonationalism alienated a group of voters who have otherwise tilted towards the GOP. 

The idea is to get a lot more votes than Trump in November. Trump haters are highly motivated and are arguably more important than Biden lovers. I think the convention seems to be working in introducing Biden to those low information voters who are only dimly aware of him, despite his long presence in American politics. As Chait notes, bipartisanship is popular. To non-ideological voters who don't follow politics through a lens, if both sides agree on a thing, it must be good.

Biden looks to have about an eight to ten point lead on Trump. That's historically bad for an incumbent. However, there are still a great many voters who have not made up their mind yet. Perhaps they simply don't vote, but they are - by definition - persuadable. Biden is trying to persuade them.  Why is that so hard to understand?

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