Facile Comparisons

 I was just skimming the day's news when the Times suggested that 1988 - when Bush 41 made a huge comeback against a large Dukakis lead - was a cautionary tale for Biden and a map for Trump. Reluctantly, I clicked through. That 1988 race was especially brutal - it was the Willie Horton and Dukakis-in-a-tank election. Dukakis was a bland technocrat with a largely unexamined record. Bush was an experienced politician with a very smart and ruthless team working for him. The "Wrong Track" number was 46%, as opposed to the 58% it is now. Dukakis let Bush define him and Bush won in a romp.

Almost none of the same dynamics are at play today. Democrats DID learn from 1988 to not allow your opponent to define you. Biden has a strong established identity that Dukakis didn't have. The economy was not the worst it had been since 1933. There was not an out of control pandemic. Bush was disciplined and experienced.

It's also worth noting the demographic shifts that have occured since 1988. America is a more diverse country. What Trump did was leverage that into a minority victory where his opponent won 3,000,000 more votes than he did. Trump's erratic, hateful politics got crushed in the suburbs in 2018, a potent harbinger of discontent among college educated whites. Since Trump allowed the pandemic to rampage across the country, Biden now has a powerful lead among elderly voters - a consistent and reliable voting bloc. 

When you unpack - for instance - this YouGov poll, Trump leads Biden by one point among HS grads; Biden leads by 11 points among "some college," 14 points among college grads and 22 points with post grad degrees. Biden wins among people earning less than 50K 51-40, 50-100K 52-39 and 100K or more 51-43. That middle number is the suburbs and he fares worst there. The YouGov post had Trump winning people aged 65+ 54-41, but many other polls have Biden winning that group. Biden is over 50% with every other age group and over 60% with 18-29 year olds. Biden leads in the Northeast 58-31 and the West 56-36, which doesn't mean much. But he wins the Midwest 47-43 and in only trailing in the South 45-46. 

Those are crushingly bad numbers.

In 1988, Reagan was still popular (bafflingly so, due to corruption, a market crash and dementia) and Bush was considered an experienced moderate Republican. In 2020, Trump is incredibly unpopular, his base is a shrinking demographic group, the economy sucks and the pandemic is the top concern on many voters minds. There are going to be dead school children this fall. 

Trump's innate awfulness as a human being will be on display every day. As Obama said, he cannot grow into this job. He will mock Biden's stutter. He comes closer and closer every day to saying the "N-word" on a hot mic. 

But papers like the Times are desperate for a horse race. Trump isn't wrong when he says that his defeat in November would be terrible for CNN's ratings. Certainly "anything can happen," but given the profound and deep hatred for Trump in large voting segments of the population, it seems unlikely that the margins will move greatly in his direction. Still, the Times and other outlets will keep flogging bad historical analogies to keep you hooked. The trauma of 2016 still resonates with people and should keep people anxiously looking at Rasmussen polls and freaking out (don't).

I suppose it is possible that Covid will disappear like a "miracle" to quote Mike Pence. I suppose it is possible that the economy will roar back to life. Much more likely is that the Senate's refusal to extend more aid to the unemployed and struggling small businesses will mean an economic collapse this fall. The sort that puts Kansas into play for Biden.

Don't fall for panic. Work, organize, register, vote.