There are a host of op-eds over at WaPo and elsewhere saying that Trump's convention was dishonest, illegal and effective. Ruth Marcus, a reliable weathervane, makes that case explicitly.
As of now, pollsters will be out there making calls and we should expect convention bounce. Or maybe not. There are a number of fallacies built in to the idea that the convention is a game changer.
The first is that there are such things as "game changers." Some pundits talk about fundamentals as being the critical factor. But more than economic data the "right direction/wrong direction" question is critical, as is job approval for an incumbent. Those numbers stay steady. Trump's approval rating has been amazingly stable to between 38-42%. If those numbers don't move, it's unlikely he can get close enough to steal the election.
The second is that anyone was watching the RNC beyond those who love Trump and those that were hate-watching. Ratings were lower than the DNC in large part because we know who Trump is. There was no need to marinate in the lies and focused hatred on display.
For instance, USC/Dornsife has been flooding the zone with polls that show Biden up in the 12-16% range, with Biden easily over 50% in the 53-55% range. If that numbers MOVES it's more important than what the final result is.
Biden's aggregate lead is around 9-10%. If he's above 4% on election day, that's a strong enough margin to win PA, MI, WI and possibly AZ. If he's above 8%, NC, IA, GA, FL and possibly TX are in play.
So keep an eye on the movement of polls. But also keep in mind that any bounce dissipates.
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