Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, December 31, 2021

A Wartime CDC

 Josh Marshall makes a much more comprehensive and logical case for what I've been saying about the lessons we need to learn from the pandemic.  The CDC and especially the FDA are public health bodies intended to manage public health and medicines during normal times. They have done their best in a climate of uncertainty surrounding a novel coronavirus. That has been a mixed result. This mixed result is not unique to the US and it's health organizations, but our perverse definition of "freedom" and the inefficiencies in federalism have made it worse. Going into this long nightmare, the US was ranked #1 in the world in its ability to handle a pandemic.

How's that going?

We can't let this moment pass before we create a new agency for pandemic planning, but one that becomes a central hub for policy when the next pandemic comes. It does not appear we are going to do that.

Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Harry Reid

 Nice tribute imbedded here.

The Economy Is Starting To Move

 I can't link to the Bloomberg story here, but Biden's economic recovery has exceeded any other president since Carter. This shouldn't be surprising for two reasons. First, the problem in the economy was largely due to the pandemic and partly due to our chronic economic inequality. Second, the Democrats addressed both in their Covid relief packages. By putting a massive influx of money into the bottom of the economy, they increased aggregate demand a lot. The "problems" in the recovery have been related to supply, and they are in the process of sorting themselves out.

It takes months for an economic recovery to sink in with voters. The fact that consumer confidence is rising now is good news for the midterms, so let's hope Covid fucks off and becomes a common cold.

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

Rand Paul Is Just The Worst

 Paul cites a stupid "article" from The American Conservative and highlights this bold claim:

How to steal an election: “Seeding an area heavy with potential Democratic votes with as many absentee ballots as possible, targeting and convincing potential voters to complete them in a legally valid way, and then harvesting and counting the results.”

The stupidity and gall of this statement has been thoroughly pilloried online, but it's a useful marker for where the bulk of the GOP resides or is quickly moving towards. The article is simply describing an aggressive GOTV effort in Wisconsin. Ironically, the GOP has traditionally benefitted from mail-in voting, because their voters are older. Their efforts to make it harder for people to vote by mail will therefore have to be targeted towards cities and encourage it in rural areas that are already overcounted in our federal structure.

Lots of people on Twitter are claiming that American democracy is slipping away. That's a bit of a misread. Truly universal democracy in America is about 55 years old. Yet, America was plausibly a democracy, even if we wouldn't call it that today. It was certainly more democratic than most countries in the world by a large margin. The second wave of democratization that occurred after World War II forced America to extend democracy to its Black citizens. The third wave led us to believe that democracy was largely inevitable and irreversible. Neither are true.

I don't think democracy in America is doomed, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned. For the most part Trump and Trumpism is a political and demographic dead-end, but the idea that an election that Republicans lose is illegitimate could poison America for a decade or more.

Monday, December 27, 2021

Let's Go Biden

 The nontroversy over Bad Dad Jared Schmeck is a perfect encapsulation of how the Internet has broken our politics. I'm trying to think of literally anything that could be less important than some doofus thinking he was clever by saying a coded "Fuck You" to the President, because he's a MAGA shitheel. 

Somehow, this has been the main conversation on Twitter the past few days.

Lok, there are parts of Twitter and Facebook that I like. I see cool/funny things in my feed. But the minute I start basing my political opinions off the shit I read there, you will know it's time to send me to a farm upstate.

Sunday, December 26, 2021

The Unseen Gerrymanders

 If Democrats are ever going to enact real reform, they will need to win state house elections. Republicans are gerrymandering that into impossibility.

Saturday, December 25, 2021

America's Crime, Mexico's Tragedy

 The "Drug War" in Mexico is an unmitigated humanitarian catastrophe. More Mexicans died in Felipe Calderon's six-year term than Americans who died in Vietnam. Between 2006 and 2019, somewhere in the neighborhood of 400,000 Mexicans have died in organized crime violence associated with the drug trade.

There is a single gun store in the entire country of Mexico. The country is awash in guns bought in the United States. The demand for the drugs that fuels the Drug War is mostly from Americans. The cartels don't want to target Americans, but the insatiable demand for drugs in this country has created incentives towards violence that have immiserated that country.

Today, we celebrate the birth of the Prince of Peace. He may have died for our sins, but perhaps our sins are too many to be truly forgiven.

Friday, December 24, 2021

The Cart And The Horse

 Among the most important questions in America today is whether Trump is the cause or the symptom. I've long felt that Trump - as a good conman salesman - is naturally adept at telling an audience what they want to hear. That has always been the juice in his rallies, both for him and his cultists. He didn't create Trumpism, like everything else he's associated with, he merely rebranded it with his name on it.

Trump's recent foray into recommending the vaccine is another brick in the wall supporting the symptom. Trump bears almost no responsibility for  "Operation Warp Speed" but at least he didn't actively subvert it while in office. Since his defeat, he and all Republicans have moved to an actively supportive of Covid position. His break with that might be the realization that the unvaccinated - Republican voters - are the ones who are dying. 

That they are now fracturing again is telling. The literally mentally ill wing of Trumpist politics - the QAnon nutters, the Flat Earthers, etc - cannot brook reality permeating their perfervid worldview. 

Trump mainstreamed this insanity, but he didn't cause it. It's always been there, but Trump and the internet brought them together and gave them impetus. And we are paying the price for that.

Thursday, December 23, 2021

Who Breaks, And Will It Matter?

 Gym Jordan has a history of covering up sordid behavior, but he's been clearly rattled by the subpoena from the January 6th Committee. Greg Sargent runs down what Jordan might know.

Ultimately, the idea that there will be some extraordinary revelation that will change the behavior of either elected Republicans or their feral voting base seems naïve. We've been through Mueller and various iterations, including two impeachments. For whatever reason, the Department of Justice has seemed less interested in prosecuting those in Trump's inner circle, unless there are no other options. 

We know that Trump participated in meetings that pushed the idea of stopping the certification of the election. We know that he pressured state election officials to change results. He's guilty as fuck and additional hearings are just filling in gaps in our knowledge.

As long as Republicans remain in thrall to Trump and his criminality, there will not be a normal reckoning. This is at the heart of the threats to our democracy. 

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

The Wrong Data

 Yglesias makes the case for keeping schools open. I think he's missing something important that we saw as a mostly in-person school last year: No one learned well last year. The pervasive uncertainty of the pandemic left everyone just a little more stressed than usual. Kids need certainty, and that was gone. Adults could not say that they were going to be safe.

Anxiety and stress are forms of transient brain damage. It's something called cognitive load. How much can you "learn" or "think" varies from person to person, but when you add environmental stressors to that cognitive load, it significantly impedes learning. As Josh Marshall notes, everyone is broken.

Last year, we arrested educational decline rather than taught successfully, and we were largely in-person. Yes, I disagree with keeping schools closed, especially now that we have vaccines and treatments. There is no excuse, as Yglesias notes, for keeping schools closed and restaurants open. 

However, if we are going to properly understand the educational losses created by Covid, then we need to understand that those loses were not entirely created by the loss of in-person class time. 

For Generation Covid, we need to rethink how long a student should be in school. Basically, the overwhelming majority of kids should either do summer school or repeat a year, if we are serious about learning loss.


UPDATE: Good summary of the psychological factors involved here. They don't use the phrase "cognitive load" when talking about students, but it's clearly what they are talking about.

Monday, December 20, 2021

Rigorous Logic

 Paul Campos lays out the very logical rationale for calling the GOP a death cult. I went walking through America's Saddest Mall in Waterbury, CT yesterday, and I tried keeping a tally of who was wearing masks and who wasn't. I'd say about 60% of people were masked and maybe 5% more were wearing masks as props (around their chins). I've seen a surprising number of elderly people unmasked, which leads me to believe that people have simply given up trying to protect themselves and others.

So, the GOP being a death cult is not - as one would hope - electoral poison. People (and this antipathy is not unique to the United States) are simply too shortsighted to make a month's worth of mild sacrifice to keep people alive.

Sunday, December 19, 2021

Doomposting Is Killing Democrats

 This is a wise take on "doomposting" or the never ending scroll of people on Twitter especially who see only gloom and despair. The news today that Manchin cannot support BBB is deeply disappointing. But the Biden Administration has done some amazing things. Perhaps far short of what Bernie promised, but this isn't Amazon, where you order your legislation and it shows up on your doorstep in 48 hours.

It will be very hard to celebrate the real accomplishments of the Biden Administration in the lead-up to both the midterms and the re-election campaign in the face of relentless "emo eeyores" focusing on what wasn't done.

My "favorite" form of doomposting is the nonsense about how Democrats are weak and never get anything done. Leaving aside the impressive slate of legislation passed already, Democrats have won the popular vote in every presidential election but two since 1988. The reason they lost in 2000 and 2016 was not about Democratic fecklessness, but rather huge structural disadvantages that Democrats labor and oftentimes successfully overcome.

Bush managed to expand drug access to Medicare, but aside from that Republicans have not tried any positive legislative agenda. Cutting taxes, gutting regulations, trying to end ACA, confirming judges...those are not legislative pieces that require overcoming institutional inertia. 

Yes, I will remain worried about every election for as long as Republicans embrace anti-democratic politics. But I'm not going to give myself an ulcer worrying about it every day.

Saturday, December 18, 2021

Energy Risks

 This is a fascinating story about the dueling priorities of France and Germany when it comes to meeting climate goals. President Macron has made a commitment to re-open and add nuclear reactors. Germany has decided that they are going to shutter their plants. There was a line from the mayor of a German town near a reopening nuclear reactor: "When a vegan business wants to settle, it probably won't move next to a slaughterhouse."

Germany currently produces a great deal more CO2 per capita than France, because as it shutters reactors, it has to open more coal burning plants. But their antipathy towards nuclear feels very much like many vegans I know: a sort of self-righteous virtue signaling. Is nuclear dangerous? Sure, the potential for a really bad outcome exists, because nuclear reactions create nuclear waste. However, the deaths attributable to burning coal and global warming tend to be secondary cause effects. 

The two worst nuclear disasters are Fukushima and Chernobyl. Fukushima - which the Germans reference a lot - killed one person and will likely lead to significantly reduced lifespans for dozens more. Chernobyl killed a few 100 directly and the question as to how many are going to see dramatically shortened lives is an ongoing debate, but let's take a reasonably high estimate of 4.000. Meanwhile, we have a study estimating that rising global temperatures kill 5,000,000 a year. Let's assume that's a ridiculously high number and cut it in half.

In other words, if you were to take Chernobyl and Fukushima combined, they barely make a dent in the yearly deaths from climate change.

Germany is engaged really poor risk assessment. Nuclear accidents are very, very rare. Should they happen they are very bad. Climate change is happening all around us and kills a great many more people, and like a very rare nuclear accident is rendering parts of the world as uninhabitable. (Let's leave aside that solar is a particularly poor option for Germany, given the hours of sunlight they get this time of year.) 

There a two impending crises threatening the world right now. One is democratic backsliding in the Europe, India and the United States. The other is the presence of too much carbon in the atmosphere. The impact of that carbon is rising temperatures, but the actual crisis is the presence of carbon. Nuclear power produces abundant electricity with much of any carbon output. Also, there is a new generation of nuclear reactors coming on line that are smaller and safer than existing reactors. 

Maybe the broad category of "renewables" will be able to produce enough electricity to power our world - a world that should require a LOT more electricity. If we want to produce more electric cars and burn less fossil fuels to heat and cooks with, then we need more megawatts. Adding more, safe nuclear reactors is the quickest way to zero emissions. Period.

The Germans are stuck in the environmental movement of the 1970s while the world burns.

Friday, December 17, 2021

We Need A Health Care GI Bill

 John Cole hit on something I've been thinking about, too. We are about to get hit with our 5th Covid wave by my count. There was the initial wave in spring of 2020, then the fall wave as weather got colder and schools tried to start up, then the brutal winter wave, then Delta and now the Omicron wave is coming.

In certain states or parts of states where vaccination rates are low, medical workers are near or past the breaking point. The next few weeks or months will again see our hospitals overflowing with people sick from an illness that they likely did not need to get. Nurses will be placing otherwise healthy people into body bags, because those people decided not to get a shot that would have saved their lives.

The physical and emotional toil of this will be massive.

These people are veterans of a two front war against a virus and ignorance. When this is over, we should reward them with several things:

- A lifetime of mental health coverage.
- Some sort of GI Bill that could include paying off their student debt or helping them buy a home. Whatever.
- A promissory note against future fucking ineptitude.

That last one will be the hardest.

Thursday, December 16, 2021

The Moral Relativism Of Conservative Christians

 This piece from The Atlantic is a fascinating peek into the mind of a certain type of conservative Christian. Judging from the byline, the author is a conservative Catholic, which would seem to mean that he would be stridently opposed to abortion. That's an inference, but I feel it holds water. I imagine he considers himself devoted to a "culture of life."

And he does not give a flying shit about Covid. There's the usual populist digs at city dwellers and the "upper middle class." The usual stupid whataboutism, in this case some other stringent standards surrounding what constitutes problem drinking. And there's the particularism of his specific case: he's not dead of Covid.

If someone transcribed "If it doesn't effect me, I don't care" into Latin, we could make that the motto of modern conservatives.

The irony of his piece is that he lives in rural Michigan. Yeah, dude, we know no one cares about mitigating the disease in rural Michigan, because over 27,000 people in your state at least have died from this disease.

Here's a self-described conservative Catholic who is outraged at the "murder" of zygotes who is all "da fuck do I care?" about tens of thousands of his neighbors dying.

Now, I agree with him on his observation: lots of people no longer care about Covid. They are "over" it. Medical facilities are strained to the breaking point and we are just beginning to enter a winter/Omicron surge that will cripple our hospital systems - even as it becomes less lethal on an individual level. 

Vaccinations (he doesn't explicitly say if he's had his, but he mentions boosters, so I presume he has) are our best defense, but the virus changes quickly when allowed to spread promiscuously. So vaccinations and masks are the way to end this pandemic.

But Real Muricans don't care about...other Real Muricans, I guess.

Wednesday, December 15, 2021

We Are All Burkeans

 Martin Longman talks about "popularism" and the burdens that Democrats labor under in terms of an asymmetric playing field.

Basically, without saying it, what Longman is describing is temperamental as opposed to ideological conservatism. America is not a "center right" nation when it comes to policy preferences. Ask Americans what they would like, and their views will largely line up with a broad range of "center left" priorities. Of the top of my head, majorities support some form of abortion rights, more gun control, higher taxes on the rich, more government help with health insurance, a better environment, improved public education, workplace protections...I dunno, I'm still ingesting my coffee. Ask them if they "want" these things and anywhere from 51% to 70%  will say, "sure." 

Here's what I think Longman hits on. When you craft your question a certain way, you get a certain answer. If you say, "Anyone should be able to get an abortion whenever they want," that won't be popular. If you say, "Abortion in the first trimester should be available to those women who need it." it will be.

This semantics argument is at the heart of "popularism." That there's some magical phrasing that will make Democrats an enduring majority party.

What Longman hits on, and I think this is more profoundly important than he realizes, is that ANY CHANGE will be unpopular compared to preserving existing structures. At first, this is really discouraging for a party that wants to improve things for most Americans. If you do something like Obamacare, you will get punished for it, because change is scary.

The flip side is that once you've instituted those changes, they become the status quo that becomes hard to change. We saw this with the Affordable Care Act. The GOP had control of both chambers of Congress and the Presidency and they couldn't gut the law. Bush couldn't gut Social Security. 

The temperamental deference to the status quo is a fairly normal human impulse. So how do Democrats navigate this?

First, the wasted time with Manchinema really does hurt more than I thought it would. Not because of the dysfunction narrative - though it doesn't help when you're trying to sell efficient government and they can't function efficiently. Rather any gains that Democrats want to run on in 2022 and 2024 require people understanding exactly what the new status quo is and Democrats effectively saying that they want to protect that.

In other words, you win an election; you issue reforms quickly; Republicans howl about the reforms; Democratic poll numbers drop; people like the reforms; Democrats run on protecting them from Republicans.

What I worry about is that a two year cycle simply isn't long enough to allow this process to give the Democrats working majorities for long enough to truly cement their gains.

If - somehow - Democrats can run and win in 2022 on a fear of a Trump Restoration and the end of democracy as we know it - then there is real hope for creating a virtuous cycle for enough time to bleed off support for Cult 45.

Tuesday, December 14, 2021

Must Read

 A lot here from Adam Silverman about both the recent revelations surrounding January 6th and the number of estimated insurrectionists. Really good stuff, as per usual from him.

There Is No Penalty For Hypocrisy, Part II: Electric Boogaloo

 The revelation that Fox News "personalities" and even Don Jr were frantically texting Mark Meadows to get Trump to call off his insurrection on January 6th is one of those typical Trumpistan revelations. I'll quote Josh Marshall:

The whole story of the Trump presidency and post-presidency is one of a series of shocks that drove momentary shudders in his followers before they quickly found a way to explain and justify and get about the business of saying everyone does it.

The presence of his own son among those alarmed by Trump's attempted autogolpe is pretty hilarious. The boy who craved Daddy's love is going to be frozen out when Trump finds out. Trump hates "betrayal" and sees it everywhere.

I "get" that the institutional GOP is terrified of Trump's cultists bolting the party if they hold him accountable for trying to overthrow American democracy. It's craven and cowardly and un-American, but I get it. Outside of a handful of elected Republicans, they have sold any principles they once had to serve their Mango-tinted God. It's despicable.

The question is: will facts ever - and I mean at the barest level - penetrate the blinkered world view of the Trump cultists? Will rank and file Republicans ever revolt against a man who tried to violently overthrow the government?

If the GOP broke decisively with Trump, it would cost them their shot in the 2022 midterms. I do think that's true. But it would set the party up for a return to sanity in the long run. Far too many don't care.

Their choice, I guess, but we will all be living with the consequences if they reject reality.

Monday, December 13, 2021

There Is No Penalty For Hypocrisy

 Rand Paul is among the worst people in a GOP filled to the brim with people who learned from Trump that the way to electoral success is being an utter asshole to "those people." Paul has repeatedly attacked disaster spending for other states, and now the horrible tragedy in Kentucky means that he will ask for disaster relief for his constituents.

Kentucky needs all of our help right now, and Rand Paul's utter assholeness should not detract from that. But we should absolutely hang this around his neck every chance we get. 

Will it make a difference? Of course not.

Sunday, December 12, 2021

Dollar General Is Evil

 This story is just heartbreaking.

Vaccines Save Lives, Part 3,975,291

 If you were a kid, Covid was unlikely to kill you, however, being vaccinated does dramatically reduce that small chance of death in those ages 18-29. The same roughly holds true for those 30-49, though again, few in that age group will die in the first place.

In the middle aged group, 50-64, we can see Covid spike to around 23 deaths per 100,000 people who are unvaccinated, whereas the vaccinated in that group spiked at .95 per 100,000. That's remarkable efficacy. That number gets even better when we move to 65-79 year olds. During the summer Delta peak, over 75 people/100,000 who were unvaccinated were dying, whereas that number plummets to 3.4/100,000 among the vaccinated. That's 25 times more likely to die if you don't get vaccinated.

Omicron is still somewhat of a mystery in terms of its lethality, as the lag between infection, hospitalization and death can take weeks. The early returns are pretty good. A virus does not want to kill or gravely sicken its host. It can't replicate from a dead host. If Omicron represents a more contagious, less lethal version of SARs-Covid-19, it could be the moment where Covid moves from a global pandemic to an endemic coronavirus that just gets you sick.

Especially if you've been fucking vaccinated.

Saturday, December 11, 2021

What Is The "Thinking" Here

 Ron DeSantis is routinely touted as the less insane, less crude, less impulsive Donald Trump.

Ron DeSantis wants to lock up Dr. Anthony Fauci.

So, the "Sane" Wing of the GOP wants to lock up a leading public health expert because...

I worry - with others - that the norm of not locking up political opponents is one that Merrick Garland might be hewing too closely. It seems pretty evident that Trump has committed myriad crimes, even apart from January 6th. However, the entire GOP seems intent on locking up people that they simply disagree with. In much the same way that Democratic states eschew gerrymandering while the GOP runs full speed ahead, Democrats can't unilaterally back down in the face of this authoritarian insanity.

Friday, December 10, 2021

The Nutmeg Laboratory

 James Surowiecki has some Covid stats from here in Connecticut. We have one of the highest adult vaccination rates in the country. Seniors are vaccinated at a 90+% rate. We had 37 Covid deaths here last week and 29 of them were unvaccinated. Anti-vaxxers will say, "See, 8 people died despite being vaccinated!" But 85.3% of all adults are vaccinated. That means the death rate for the unvaccinated is 16 times higher than the unvaccinated.

The pandemic is not going anywhere, for a number of reasons. One is variants, one is anti-vaxxer refusal to create the sort of barrier to spread, and a big one is that people are just "over" the pandemic. The number of people wandering around with no masks or poorly fitted masks is a sign of basic selfishness. Yes, masks suck. They are mildly uncomfortable. They are a hassle.

They are also the only way to properly fully arrest the spread of the disease. The vaccines do a great job, but they need a little boost and masks can give that.

Take it from me. Vaccines are a great way to prevent serious Covid, but they are not infallible. Well fitting, high performance masks are a great way to prevent serious Covid, but they are not infallible. Combine the two, and you're in a very strong position. Connecticut is demonstrating both the efficacy and the limits of vaccines. Because people are stupid and unserious, they aren't able to grok that distinction between extremely effective and infallible. If something prevents something 95% of the time, it still allows it one time in 20.

I think we have to accept the fact that we live in a country that is willing to accept a large number of dead school children every year in the name of "FREEDUMB!!!!1!!1" We are perfectly fine having people die of Covid as long as I don't have to inconvenience myself in any way.

Thursday, December 9, 2021

The Biden Boom

 Paul Krugman has a very good question that should be easy to answer but it's not: How is the American economy doing?

So much of the underlying data seems pretty damned good. Employment is high, real wages are rising, the supply bottleneck is easing. As Krugman notes, many of the economic indicators look great. What's especially weird, but maybe unsurprising, is that people think the economy is in bad shape, but they also say their personal economic situation is pretty good. Some of this is a lag between what people feel personally and the tenor of news coverage.

Dana Milbank just launched a broadside against the sensationalist news media. His methodology might not be perfect, but he had a computer program analyze media coverage of Biden over the last 11 months and Trump during the last 11 months of his presidency. You may remember Trump's 2020: mismanaging a pandemic that eventually almost killed him; fueling racial violence in the streets; undermining faith in our democracy through the Big Lie; Infrastructure Weak. I'm sure there was more.

Nevertheless, Biden's coverage has been as bad or worse than Trump's. Most notable was the media freak out over Afghanistan. Most Americans had the opinion of "About time, but I wish it had been handled better." Much of the latter part was from the media's incessant doomsday predictions and negative coverage. Killing a million Americans in a pandemic gets you the same coverage as ending America's forever war.

Much is the same on the economy. Inflation is both a real concern and likely an ephemeral one tied to gas prices. People don't like paying too much for gasoline. However, I can remember when gasoline hit $4.00+ a gallon in 2008. No one freaked out about inflation, probably because the economy was about to Wily Coyote itself into the side of a cliff. Instead, today, we have rising real wages, but that's being eroded by both gas-fueled inflation and supply bottlenecks that inflate prices. As both of those pressures ease, perhaps Biden's handling of the economy will hew closer to reality.

Covid, however, remains the primary focus of dissatisfaction, and I think people express their unhappiness with pandemic restrictions - mild as they are - in economic terms.

Right now, the best hope for American democracy is that the media allows itself to accurately report on a pretty miraculous economic recovery and that Covid fades into the background for good by May.

Wednesday, December 8, 2021

The Greatest Threat To American Democracy

 is the Republican Party of Donald Trump. This has been building for years, but they are increasingly abandoning basic ideals of democracy.

And they will likely win control of Congress in eleven months.

The Pandemic Should Have Been An Opportunity

 Yglesias goes on one of his "I'm not an expert, but here's how I would completely change a field that I'm not an expert in" bits. It's not clear exactly how much merit there is in this because - wait for it - I'm not an expert.

However, there are undoubted problems with America's health care system. I don't think this is a surprise to anyone. We focus a LOT on access to health insurance, because that's Problem Number One, but there are a bunch of other issues. Massive disruptions tend to generate new policy ideas, however, and it doesn't look like we are "building back better" when it comes to our public health institutions. After 2008, we passed a number of important financial services reforms, because we had an administration who wanted to make government and the economy work. So far in 2021, Biden has focused - wisely - on getting the economy back on track, because that's a playbook that has been run before.

On public health there are a number of issues, some of which Yglesias mentions. Our public health institutions are sclerotic; the virus is agile. As a result, we had the mask fiasco in March and April of 2020. Currently, he points out that it really seems like we should have a longer gap between vaccines. However, the evidence from this comes from other countries like Canada, so we pretend it doesn't exist. The FDA is a MUCH stricter regulatory agency than those in Europe. My guess is that the origins of the FDA at a time of patent medicines, means that their desire to be stringent is rooted in past practices. However, we have to acknowledge that the lobbying power of drug companies makes the idea that Pfizer is just pursuing profits plausible. We live with a regulatory regimen that is paralyzed by the ghost of thalidomide. 

The other issue that Yglesias notes is rapid testing. Speaking from experience, the ability to test frequently and easily has <knock wood> kept Covid from rampaging through our school - a school with both dormitories that function as petri dishes and teenagers who think masks are chin straps. Combined with mandatory vaccinations, when we find someone who's Covid positive, we can rapidly track and trace and alter our behavior until more testing puts us in the clear. Right now, flu is the big illness on campus precisely because we don't test for it.

That we have regulatory barriers to at-home testing because we worry about false results is both understandable and nuts. False negatives are no worse than operating in the dark, which is our current status. False positives would be caught by follow up testing. If we tested large swaths of the population at random, we would do a much better job of tamping down this pandemic. If David Leonhardt is right, the FDA is the reason we do not have widespread, cheap testing kits.

That's inexcusable.

The issue with treatments is a good one, too. When I was hospitalized with Covid pneumonia, they gave me a rheumatoid arthritis drug. That was "experimental" but it sure seemed to work. Yglesias notes the success of an SSRI drug. One of the knock on problems of the ivermectin bullshit is that alternate treatments are also dragged through the guilt-by-association issue.

However, we can go beyond what Yglesias notes to more general issues. 

We have a patchwork of public health agencies that communicate poorly or not at all. We have political whackaloons running public health agencies who have become anti-vaxxers because that's what their Tangerine God told them to do. 

We have no global network for vaccination, despite the very real need. In fact, globally, we are still just as unprepared as we were in 2018.

Dr. Fauci has become the default national face of the pandemic response, but he's very old. Who steps into his shoes for the next pandemic - and there will be a next pandemic.

When 1929 or 2008 broke the world economy, we got a robust response following the old New Deal form of Relief, Recovery and Reform. The reforms coming out of the New Deal and the Obama Administration are really important to prevent economic cataclysms from returning to their 19th century regularity. 

It does not appear we have anything close to a reform movement to prevent a repeat of the Covid pandemic in 15 years.

Tuesday, December 7, 2021

Russia

It's unclear what Putin's plan is for Ukraine. His goals are pretty obvious. He wants a Ukraine that is separate from the West and largely dependent on Moscow for security. That is not what Ukraine wants, though. Ukraine wants increased integration with the EU and NATO. The problem is that authoritarian regimes can often get trapped in information silos more complete than the ones usually found in democracies. 

For instance, the Bush Administration created an information silo around invading Iraq in 2003. However, there was robust pushback and millions of people protesting in the street. Bush went ahead anyway in one of the worst foreign policy disasters in American history. The dissent, however, was real and substantial, and the self-evident failures in Iraq perhaps put an end to discussions about invading Iran. 

Putin faces none of that. There is no dissenting viewpoint that might interject a stark dose of reality into Kremlin plans. If Putin feels that invading Ukraine will not hurt him, then he will do it. This action if unlikely to occur without serious repercussions for Russia. Can he see that?

Frankly, the US and NATO should make the case that Russian military interventions in Ukraine make NATO membership more likely, not less. 

I've always felt that 9/11 broke something in this country. The specter of Islamist terrorists unleashed the latent racism and xenophobia simmering beneath the surface of American civil life. I wonder if the pandemic has broken something else. Not just here, but globally. There are mask protests and anti-vaxxers in Europe, too.

Covid might have broken something in Russia, and that could introduce instability into an authoritarian decision making system that has dire repercussions for us all.

The Counting Capacity

 Good Yglesias has a nice rundown of how the government does a poor job accumulating and managing data. We live in a world where data is everywhere and levers great power in our economy. Yet we don't know how many people are murdered every year, not precisely. We have no real idea how many vaccines have been given.

I've argued that a central focus of the Biden Administration has to be government capacity. We need to hire good people to do good work. The Reagan Regression created a slow war of attrition on governmental competency. While the argument "government is incompetent" is largely false, it could certainly be MORE competent.

The CDC that Yglesias begins with is a great example. For various reasons, the CDC has been stripped of capacity over time. That - combined with a certain hesitancy to get ahead of the evidence - is why we have had such mind-boggling confusion over masks in the spring of 2020. That confusion is the wedge for the conspiratorial to infect the discourse with a series of whataboutism and false equivalencies. 

Monday, December 6, 2021

Deadly Trolls

 The modern "conservative" movement has degenerated to a simple movement to troll non-"conservatives." That's the best definition of Trumpism and Trump's personal appeal. The insanity of this Christmas card is further and unneeded proof of this dynamic. This is a member of Congress posing with his family with enough weaponry to kill hundreds of people...FOR CHRISTMAS.

As the GOP moves into a post-policy form, whereby it has no real plans for how to run or staff a government, we are increasingly seeing the elites of the GOP embrace trolling as form of politics. This has dire implications, because some wannabe dictator like Trump can leverage this into an attack on our democratic institutions. "Oh, you think voting is important? Well, we are going to oppose voting." Some of this is naked power politics, but some is simply Cleek's Law in overdrive.

If the only coherence your politics has is oppositional, that can win you elections, but it does not provide a rationale for governing the country.

This Is Crazy Cool

 Scientists are able to create an animated map of how the coronavirus lives inside a tiny droplet of aerosol. 

Sunday, December 5, 2021

Good News, Bad News, Good News, Bad News

 Potential "good news" on Omicron: while it looks much more contagious and able to evade acquired immunity, it has done so by becoming less deadly.  This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective, as the virus wants more hosts and killing the host is ineffectice.

Bad news is that social distancing - which we have used in our dining rooms and athletic practices - really doesn't seem to work much at all.

Good news is that if you add a mask, you significantly reduce the spread of the virus.

Bad news is that the mask has to fit well. Just anecdotally, we have a decent mask policy here on paper, but the number of noses that I see every day is depressingly reminding me about the risk tolerance of adolescents. 

Pro-Life Is Bullshit

 There are any number of ways to catalog the galling hypocrisy present in the anti-abortion movement calling itself "pro-life," when really they mean "forced birth."

There is the argument that the GOP simply does not care one whit for child welfare in this country. They do not care for pre and neo-natal care. They will fight efforts to reduce child poverty.

There are two other cases of this hypocrisy. First, the people who hate abortion usually support the death penalty and they are usually anti-asylum when it comes to migrants.

Pope Francis has at least punctured the hypocrisy by downplaying abortion as an issue for Catholics, and constantly reminding people of the lives currently under siege by bigotry and racial animus. That there is whole sect within the Catholic Church that is opposed to this tells us all we need to know about the priorities of the Forced Birth movement.

My son has a consistent and abiding hatred of religion. There are many wonderful parts of religion and faith, but there really is no defense of much of what modern evangelical and conservative Catholicism has become.

Saturday, December 4, 2021

Possible Progress On Gun Violence

 The arrest of the Crumbleys in connection with their son shooting up a school shows a way to begin to impact the scourge of gun violence. We are vanishingly unlikely to put into place legitimate efforts to prevent future mass casualty events, like registering and licensing guns and gun owners. 

However, guns are exempt from any number of normal liability laws. Not just the owners but the manufacturers and the retailers. If a bartender overserves a customer and they drive drunk and kill or injure someone, that bartender can be held liable. If someone leaves a literal loaded gun around the house, nothing.

That seems a small way forward. Like with police violence, at this point we are simply trying to hold people accountable for horrible actions. Actually preventing them is as effective as mask and vaccine mandates.

Friday, December 3, 2021

The Law Of Unintended Consequences

 Many laudable efforts have been made to make policing more responsive to community needs. However, some of these decisions are most likely leading to a spike in property crime. I'm going to predict that the murder spree of 2020 was most likely pandemic related, but cities and states have reduced the penalties for non-violent crimes, and it is having an impact on public safety.

Here in Connecticut there was an effort to reduce criminal penalties for teenagers committing felonies. The laudable goal was to keep kids out of the criminal system. It was an effort to interdict the school-to-prison pipeline. The result, however, has been to create gangs of teenaged car thieves, working for Fagin-like adults, who can steal cars and not face felony jail time.

This is going to lead to a correction. Will it be rolling back these laws - perhaps creating more stringent penalties and diversion programs - or will it be the advent of a more dangerous Nixon (like Trump). Someone who rides a fear of lawlessness to grab power and become lawless themselves?

The Defund the Police movement is exactly the sort of overreach that any political movement is prone to, but unlike the effort to overturn Roe, this really has and will move votes. Democrats need to get ahead of this NOW, before the (false) perception sets itself in stone.

What Does A Post-Roe World Look Like

 The assumption being made after oral arguments is that the Supreme Court will strike down Roe v Wade, either in total or in practical effect. I have no reason to doubt this. I've always felt that most Republican elite don't really care about abortion, but as we have seen time and again, they are captive to their evangelical base. So, they've been perfectly willing to mine evangelical voters with promises of overturning Roe, the smarter among them know that it is incredibly unpopular. 

Campos notes that there has been a whole subset of Center Left and Center Right (Susan Collins) types who have assumed that the noise from the Christianists about overturning Roe was simply noise, and that sensible people like John Roberts would not overturn established and reaffirmed precedent. Now that they have a 6-3 majority on the Court, there does not seem to be the same scruples. I've always felt that Roberts was worried about the legitimacy of the Court, hence his ruling in Sebelius, but that the path to overriding the 6-3 majority seems very much out of reach, so he will go for it. 

The horrible irony is that five of the Justices with lifetime terms were appointed by presidents who assumed office after losing the popular vote. The Court is intentionally "undemocratic" but it has become distressingly so in the era of GOP minority rule.

Anyway, let's assume that the Court effectively or definitively overturns Roe. I would lean towards effectively, as Roberts, Gorsuch and maybe Kavanaugh understand the political toxicity of overturning abortion rights. So they will craft a ruling that gives them a little bit of deniability. 

The key, ultimately, is whether this will move votes. The ruling will come out before the midterm elections. How many fence-sitting suburban women will flip their votes to Democrats over this? I fear the number will be distressingly few. Yes, roughly 60% of Americans believe abortion should be legal. How many of that 60% will base their vote off this belief? I have a detached support for abortion rights. I support it in a rather general way, and I'm sure that applies to the 60%. If you're a "single issue" voter on the subject of reproductive rights, I imagine you are already voting for Democrats.

I suppose that it could serve to rally voter in a critical midterm, but I just worry that middle class white women, who could be a critical tipping point demographic, will always be able to secure abortions for their daughters or themselves. Overturning Roe will fall disproportionately on poorer women, especially teenagers. It will take awhile for the horror stories of backalley abortions and dying women to change people's minds.

I've been saying for years that Christianists or political evangelicals are the greatest threat to American democracy, and the rush to overturn an established right seems to fit into that frame neatly. Is there enough democratic control over our government to make them pay?

Thursday, December 2, 2021

Republicans Are Trying To Kill You

 Example one: Donald Trump knowingly exposed Joe Biden to Covid during their debate in October 2020. As Paul Campos and others have noted, this is barely a story. Despite a media that is hungry for Trump-fueled ratings, they are ignoring that the frontrunner for the GOP nomination in 2024 basically attempted biological warfare against his opponent.

Example two: the student who committed our latest school shooting had a Trumpist mom. OK, that's not necessarily a problem, except - as Campos (again) notes - the parents had been informed of his troubling behavior, had in fact had a conference about it the morning of the shooting, and yet still bought him a gun.

Is this "malice murder" or "negligent homicide"? 

Doesn't matter if you're dead.

As it is, Covid is killing off many of the MAGA crowd. So, I guess it's murder-suicide?

Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Celebrity Culture

 The news that New Jersey resident Dr. Mehmet Oz is going to run for the Senate in Pennsylvania is the latest sign that the GOP is captive to a weird sort of celebrity culture. Oz rose to prominence as a mediagenic star who was able to crossover from being a successful heart surgeon to a quack whisperer selling bogus health treatments. (It is worth noting that Oprah has unleashed this fool AND Dr. Phil upon us.)

Aside from name recognition, what possible qualifications does Dr. Oz for sitting in the Senate? I suppose he has a more credible claim than Donald Trump or Tommy Tuberville, but at this point, the Republican Party's full-scale retreat from policy can be wrapped up in their embrace of reality show celebrities.

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Reforming Public Health Institututions

 Yglesias builds on some of the points I was raising yesterday and adds to them. It's distressing that the enormous bill that is BBB has seen a steady erosion in funding for pandemic defense. There are a host of reasons why we were unprepared for Covid, but there is no excuse to not be working double overtime to stop it now and prevent the next pandemic.

The languishing state of mRNA vaccines before Covid is a great example of how regulatory slowness in our public health institutions needs to be changed. It's like they are operating in a pre-computer/Internet timeline.

I would hope that some of this gets addressed in the Pentagon's budget. No one in DC objects if the military gets money.

Monday, November 29, 2021

The CDC Should Not Be Trying To Figure Out Politics

 As we await - nervously - the impact of Omicron, we are relying as we should on the CDC and WHO to determine how dangerous this new variant really is - especially to the vaccinated. The immediate move to shut off air travel with the south of Africa has been widely panned by health officials. The problem with this is that they are looking at the issue as a medical one, yet proposing political solutions.

True, Omicron is probably out of the bag and loose in the Global North. However, it is also most likely more widespread in southern Africa. Ideally, you get a delay to figure out how to fight this - and travel bans DO give you a delay. If there are 100 people in the US with Omicron, that's objectively better than 1,000. The argument health officials make is that travel bans create a false sense of security, and we really need to be testing, tracing, vaccinating and masking.

Well, of course we do. Most people advocating for travel bans would also advocate for testing and tracing, and they are already pushing vaccines.

The reality is - and the CDC and WHO seem oblivious to this obvious fact - that there is a sizable portion of the world who simply will not take any additional measures to stop the spread of Covid. In fact, the people who DO want to stop the spread of Covid have often been held back by health officials. I would like my 17 year old son to get a booster, but he can't because reasons. 

The point of public health is to achieve what is possible. Wiping out Covid appears to be impossible, simply because the politics of the virus has warped ideas of public good. Some communities are on board and some aren't. Navigating that landmine of patchwork effectiveness means that ANY delay in the spread of Omicron should be worth it.

UPDATE: Marshall makes the point better, as per usual.

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Invisible Biden Isn't The Problem

 There's a media narrative that Biden needs to be more visible and improve his messaging.

Paul Waldman explains why this is bullshit, so that I don't have to.

Lowest Common Dumb-nominator

 This snippet of news about Marjorie Traitor-Greene threatening Kevin McCarthy by withholding her support for his Speaker bid next year (presuming they win the House) shows the problem that the GOP poses to American democracy.

Traitor-Greene is a monstrosity of the QAnon world vomited forth by rural Georgia voters to "own the libs" and pursue the vindictive, brainless politics that Trump elevated from the shadows into the mainstream of American politics. Kevin McCarthy is a spineless idiot who will constantly cater to insurgents like Traitor-Greene because he knows that she represents a sizable wing of his political party. 

As long as the GOP has to bend to the will of people like Traitor-Greene, Lauren Boebert, Madison Cawthorn and Ur-Morons Paul Gosar and Louis Gohmert, one of the two viable political parties will be constant threat to democratic institutions. I would doubt very much that the Moron Caucus could pass a basic civics or citizenship test, and yet they could be calling the tune in Congress as soon as 13 months from now.

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Who Needs Some Good News?

 The Omicron variant has us all on edge. I think we know that if a new variant comes along that evades vaccines (zero evidence of that yet), we are basically going to sit back and let hundreds of thousands of people die rather than go back to square one. I know that we are planning on flying next month and I will be shopping for N95 masks prior to that. If we do return to the worst days of Delta, then - yes - I fear hope for the midterms is lost. This is about as favorable a Senate map as Democrats will face for a while, so that's pretty huge. All the doom-posting about Democrats based on Virginia seemed misplaced (if entirely in character for Dems), given that the single biggest issue is Covid.

So, we need some good news!

Gas prices are stabilizing and should start dropping as countries ramp up pressure and production. Gas is unusually vulnerable to price manipulation, and Biden threatening oversight is a good step. Hopefully, more people follow the clues and do what our family did and move to hybrids.

The Biden Administration will be helping underserved communities find health care workers. Elections matter! Good policy is good policy.

Shipping delays are starting to ease, as Biden Administration puts the boot to port facilities.

The Charlottesville racists have been fined enough to bankrupt them.

We are making it harder to drill for oil on protected land and easier to build windfarms

The frustrating thing about American politics is that Democrats have plans and ideas to make the country better. Republicans do not, because their basic idea is that government can't do anything and anything it does do is tyranny. It's frustrating, because a proper, unified response to Covid would have shown that the government CAN do big things. But we have an incompetent fraud in charge and a million Americans have died.

Ideally, Democrats could have a nice 12 year run of control of the government to set things right in this country, but I'm not terribly optimistic. 

Sorry, this was supposed to be optimistic.

Friday, November 26, 2021

Not Great

 There are two bad Covid stories running neck and neck right now.

The first is an expected surge as people move indoors due to cold weather. Again, hospitalizations is the key metric here, and those are rising. How many of them are unvaccinated is unclear, and I doubt they will publish the data, because there will be a sizeable portion of vaccinated people hospitalized, simply because a majority of Americans are vaccinated, not to mention the need for boosters.

The second and even scarier story is the Omicron variant, which has appeared in Africa. Europe has banned travel from southern Africa and frankly the rest of the world should follow suit. The sad reality is that China is central to the world economy in ways that Africa is not. At the moment, there are not many people sick with the Omicron variant, but that is why it's essential to quarantine the area. As we have seen recently, the world is simply sick of being sick. Masking measures provoke protests in Europe as well as America, vaccine uptake is not where we would hope and might not be effective against this variant.

If anything, Covid has taught us how woefully unprepared we are for global pandemics and how high the costs can be. Quarantining southern Africa is extreme, yes, but we need to finally take the measures necessary to keep new outbreaks under control.

Thursday, November 25, 2021

Lynching Is Not OK

 The guilty verdicts for the three men who lynched Ahmaud Arbery have drawn a contrast between a rural Georgia county and the decision to exonerate Kyle Rittenhouse for killing two people on the mean streets of small town Wisconsin. 

There are two parts to the Arbery case that bear scrutiny, and they are contradictory so unlikely to get much play in the Hot Take Hothouse of American Discourse in 2021. 

First, Arbery's murderers were almost never charged. The implicit and explicit racism at play in the initial decision not to charge the McMichaels and Bryan is part of the Good Ole Boy South. Charges were only brought when video leaked out. This is the Bad Old South and America.

Second, once the broader public became aware of what happened, there have been and potentially will be consequences for both the murderers and the law enforcement personnel who abetted the cover-up of their lynching.

On the one hand, this is a stark demonstration of the "Two Americas" dynamic. There were the people who killed Arbery and those who were OK with that. The subsequent elections of new DAs and the conduct o the judge and the jury stand in contrast with the judge in Wisconsin and those who tried to hide Arbery's murder. The judge in Rittenhouse's case was such a buffoon, that it almost seems incumbent on the DOJ to file weapons charges against Rittenhouse. 

But we also need to appreciate that what we saw in the case is that - to survive - racism has to remain in the shadows in 2021. As I mentioned the other day, racism and prejudice usually declines the more you interact with people different than you. The South is increasingly a tri-racial society, but has always been biracial. Even in the height of Jim Crow, virulent hatred of Black people was rarer than we tend to appreciate. By 1900, the brutalization of Black people in the South creating a self-replicating apartheid state that required fewer exemplary killings. As long as Blacks "knew their place" everything hummed along. I was always struck by the vehemence of racism when I came North in 1982.

Racism in the South is very real, but it's way more complicated than Hollywood films about Mississippi Burning portray it. The Arbery case showed that racist actions in the deepest South have to be hidden from public view to survive. 

It's not enough, but I think it's important to recognize progress where it exists. If you don't, what's the point of fighting for progress at all? To recognize the progress in the South - while also recognizing that absent the video evidence, those three men go free - is to turn away from despair and take renewed purpose to the fight. 

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Collective Narcissists

Nancy Le Tourneau has a nice summary of the psychology of Trumpism and really the entire Republican Party. It's been called "grievance politics" and that is accurate up to a point. As Le Tourneau notes, it is the fear that's the real driver of these politics in America and elsewhere.

I belong to a Facebook group in my rather conservative hometown. It is...quite the experience. You get a lot of "kids these days are out of control" and "bring back the Indian mascot" and "crime is everywhere." Sure, you also get the "nice" conservative small town stuff like buying local and thanking a neighbor who helped someone move. The most engaged posts are those that deal with this constant state of fear that A) the country is changing from the one that they are most comfortable with and B) American Carnage. 

When Trump gave his inaugural address, it was routinely marveled over by those of us in the reality-based community. But Trump's vision of an American falling apart at the seams, with blood running in streams through the streets of our cities and people as destitute as if it had been 1932 was both designed for and emblematic of Rightist media. Trump marinated in that world and spoke its language naturally.

It is also clearly a conscious strategy on the Right to depict America as descending into a Mad Max hellhole. Fox is always screeching about something stupid - migrant caravans! Ebola! Socialism! - and they are losing market share to the even shriller screechers at OANN and NewsMax. 

Here's the problem for Biden and Democrats: Thing are measurably improving. With an improved economy and pent-up demand, we are seeing inflation (which of course, Fox and Company are beating the shit out of). This inflation should peter out over the winter, as gas prices fall, ports clear and the labor market stabilizes. 

The real issue remains Covid. It sucks. I don't like wearing a mask, but I do, because I'm not a selfish prick. I don't like the impact it has on our teaching and coaching, and we are fairly free of restrictions. But a winter surge is likely coming. Whether it impacts our school specifically, we are going to see another surge, because winter drives people indoors. Yglesias the other day spoke about how poor a job the CDC has done in public messaging. I agree, but that's more important over the next four to five months. We will get a surge, but it is VERY unlikely to be a deadly surge, given both the vaccination rates and the availability of oral anti-virals to treat the ill. 

If Covid becomes an annoyance by May, I think that gives Biden and Democrats enough time to point to genuine good news. It's always risky to claim things are good when they are not. Right now, just enough is not good to make those claims ring hollow, but we are still capable of setting things right with enough time to have an impact on the mid-terms. 

But if Covid spirals out of control, we are fucked.

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

The Great Resignation

 Josh Marshall points out the central truth of the "Great Resignation": most of the people who quit bad paying jobs did so to get better paying jobs. Some of this is two-wage families where one member has stayed home with young kids because day care is too expensive or too risky. But the central point is that this is not a normal jobless recession. If anything the Great Resignation's focus on better paying jobs may explain part of the inflation conundrum we find ourselves in.

It strikes me that this is also a latent product of Trumpism. Specifically, we need more low-income immigrant labor. As people decide that certain jobs aren't worth the money, we need to find laborers that are willing to do that work. Historically, that has meant immigrant labor. The workforce is essentially mobile - slow-moving, but mobile. There was some talk about Biden retroactively giving green cards to people who were denied them during the slowdown under Trump. There is an obvious political downside to this, as certain Americans hate immigrants. However, people also hate not being able to grab a quick meal at Burger King, because they have to close early for lack of workers. (The situation in my home town.)

For those that would complain that this is exploitive, I suppose the counter argument that if your choices are working a subsistence farm in Honduras and hoping that local drug gangs don't kill you or living in an apartment with electricity and hot water while doing menial labor...which one is more exploitive?

Working at Burger King is...not great. If we want our Impossible Whoppers, I think the answer is in Guatemala, Honduras and Haiti, rather than in the Federal Reserve.

Beating That Dead Horse

 Matthew Yglesias makes the point that I've made before: There is not a lot of evidence that DEI training actually works. Some of this, I believe, is because a great deal of DEI training is coming from Education Departments that aren't - shall we say - tremendously rigorous in their methodology.  

Yglesias points out that the single best way to overcome racism is to have people actually meet and interact with people of other racial, ethnic and gender groups. There is a lot of shit given to (mostly) Republican politicians who respond to some sort of sexual crime with "As the father of a daughter...", because theoretically, you shouldn't need to have a daughter to know that sexual assault is wrong. However, the traditional doubts about false accusations tend to melt away, when you consider someone you know either surviving a sexual assault of being vulnerable to it. So...I get it. They should be more empathetic to a theoretical person, but the reality is, we aren't wired that way.

Yglesias goes on to mention the very real possibility that not only does DEI training not work, but it might actively make prejudices worst. Most corporations undergo DEI training for the purpose of avoiding getting sued. I've always felt that we have a certain formula at our school for responding to these issues, that seems more about "doing something" than solving the actual problem.

The insight that people who are told that stereotyping is bad wind up stereotyping more, because - after all - stereotyping is prevalent does not seem far-fetched to me.

Thing of it this way: the modal person you are trying to reach with this training in a school is a white boy or girl who has very little personal experience with people of color. In our school, these young people are usually the very picture of privilege. You tell them, repeatedly, that they are privileged and that they have benefitted from racism and that they walk around with unconscious biases. It seems likely that you are subtly instructed them that this is simply who they are. At the very least, you activate the native oppositional streak in teenagers. 

Tell a person that they are unconsciously racist enough and they will eventually come to agree with you.

On the other hand, there is some evidence that focusing on progress leads to more progress. I center race and slavery in my US History class during the first semester. There are basically two main events - the Revolution and the Civil War - that function as focal points for causation thinking. Slavery is fundamental to the latter. In the second semester, the focus is on change. Tracing the actual history of racism, Jim Crow and the "Second Reconstruction" of the Civil Rights Era, shows progress. I have to be clear that this progress is incomplete, but if I simply harp on the negative aspects of race in America, I will eventually lose the very students I'm trying to reach.

Both Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass focused on the Declaration of Independence over the Constitution when opposing slavery. This is the paradox of Thomas Jefferson: the slaveholder, who loosed the ideals that would eventually end slavery.

When studying the arguments during the Civil Rights movement (for African Americans and others) the essential insight was universalist arguments when over particularist arguments. King, especially, simply wanted a seat at the table, whereas X and Carmichael explicitly talked about throwing the table over. Similarly, "same sex marriage" or "gay marriage" was how George W Bush won Ohio and a second, disastrous term. "Marriage equality" currently enjoys a 64% approval rating, including a 50-50 split among Republicans under the age of 45. 

It's unclear what - exactly - would constitute an effective form of DEI training. I know that my immature attitudes towards homosexuality changed completely, simply by being around homosexuals. The small Georgia town that my parents lived in went out of their way to protect the Mexicans living in their community without documentation, because they knew them and liked them. There is a presumption in America - and this is new - that racism is wrong. It's not a universally held belief, but close enough. (This is why Republicans freak out when they are called racists. It does sting.) However, we could be activating biases through the very efforts we are taking to make racism and bias unacceptable. 

Anthony Bourdain used to say that the only solution to the world's problems was for everyone to have sex and make babies with everyone else until we were all the same color. He was joking, but the idea that simply hanging out with those different from you is not a joke and seems the most effective way to combat the worst effects of racism. Not sure how you scale that up, but that's the clearest way forward.

Sunday, November 21, 2021

The Reality Gap

 Nancy LeTourneau points out that so much of the Doom and Gloom narrative surrounding the Biden Administration is a product of a largely media created gap between reality and those narratives.

Afghanistan is a perfect example of this, as people wanted out of Afghanistan, Biden did it, some of it wasn't media-genic, the War Pigs raised a holler and here we are. Biden did the right thing, the media hit him for it and a "narrative" is created.

Inflation is "real" but it's not terrible for coming out of a pandemic induced recession. You should see growth after a slowdown. That's a good thing! Gas prices are largely cyclical and a huge part of consumer perceptions about the economy. Gas around us is about $3.50 a gallon. I would prefer it wasn't but I can remember $4.00 a gallon in 2008, and we survived that just fine.

Josh Marshall has observed that the Washington Media is "hardwired for the GOP." It's not because they are Republicans or even sympathetic to the Republican party. But they must have drama, they must have a horserace, and they can't very well point out that one of the horses is a rabid jackal. "Opinions differ" is a lazy, narrative vs analysis driven way to cover the news. Plus, they have to be seen as "fair" for criticizing Trump for trying to overthrow American democracy, so they are going to hit Biden for a marginal increase in the price of gas.

The Very Online will aver that this is a product of "poor Democratic messaging," but it's really not. There is no "messaging" that will overturn the biases of the Fox addled or the Terminal Beltway Brains. 

Hopefully, Covid fades away, as we reach critical densities of immunity and therapeutics improve. With that people might just notice that things have actually improved.

Saturday, November 20, 2021

Our Laws And Culture Are The Problem

 This explanation of the legal issues in the Rittenhouse case is very good and thorough. There are two reasons why Rittenhouse escaped the most significant consequences of his actions.

The first is that our laws give broad latitude to people defending themselves. The most extreme case was the Trayvon Martin case, that bears a fair amount of similarities to what happened in Kenosha (and which the author references). The "Stand Your Ground" laws are invitations to lethal force. They are nothing less than fetishizing the myth of the "good guy with the gun."

The second stems from this, which is our sickening gun culture. I own some guns that we inherited, family heirlooms. We keep them in a safe. My son has gone hunting with them on a few occasions. That's fine. But that's a LONG way from where the gun culture is in America today. We elevate guns through open carry and Stand Your Ground laws. Our laws encourage people to walk into a Burger King with an assault weapon on their hip. 

This is absurd and obscene. No one, and I mean no one, needs to be packing a weapon capable of mass casualties in order to get a burrito at Chipotle. Some of this is the warping of gun culture the NRA has been doing since the 1980s. The way they have done so is to stoke fears of American Carnage. Trump's rhetoric was of a piece with this trend to make Americans terrified of other Americans. Many of our issues with police shootings stem from the police reasonably worrying that every traffic encounter could involve a firearm.

This is then amplified by the paranoid conspiracy theories about the American government and the need for Bubba to pack major weaponry to defend against the tyranny of infrastructure spending and increased access to health care. The idea that Mr. Open Carry is going to defend his community against antifa and Biden's black helicopters is ridiculous, but it becomes a major problem when we add the ubiquity of these weapons to the mix.

From Sandy Hook to Orlando to Las Vegas, we have shown repeatedly that we simply do not care how many of our countrymen die, as long as we don't threaten the fragile masculinity of our ammosexual population.

Friday, November 19, 2021

Welcome To Thunderdome

I held out some hope that Kyle Rittenhouse would at least be found guilty of manslaughter. 

Nope.

Presumably, there will be protests over this verdict. What's to prevent someone from showing up with a weapon and shooting protestors because they feel threatened? Apparently not the laws or courts of Wisconsin.

Unless of course, the person showing up with a long rifle over their shoulder is Black, in which case he will be gunned down in the streets.

Pretty fucking sickening.

Thursday, November 18, 2021

How Bad Was 2019-2021?

 The idiocy of the anti-vax movement is well on display at sites like SorryAntiVaxxer. The two pronged assault of idiocy runs along the axis of 1) TYRANNY! and 2) Covid is just the flu. The "Microchips in the injection" or "the vaccine alters your DNA" are less examples of idiocy than the outright delusions characteristic of the conspiracy minded.

The "getting a shot is the end of liberty" is a weird sort of projection from people who cheered on efforts to end democracy and carry long guns to Chipotle as form of performative penis extensions. The stupidest defense, though, has to be "It's not that bad a disease."

This comes back, once again, to American innumeracy. They hear 2% mortality rate (it's a bit higher than that) and compare it to the flu. Now, the flu is unusually deadly for the elderly, like Covid. However, before the vaccine, we had terrible results for Covid. In the 2018-19 flu season, 21,261 people over the age of 65 died of the flu or flu complications. That's not a number we talk about, because it's simply the nature of being old. However, in 2021 - even after the availability of the vaccine and its widespread use among the elderly - roughly 264,000 people over the age of 65 will have died of Covid. That number needs to be added to the 311,000 who died in 2020, before the vaccines became available.

As Paul Campos notes, more Americans will have died from Covid in 2021 than in 2020, even though the vaccine became widely available last spring and early summer. We know that vaccines drastically reduce both cases and especially deaths, so the fact that more Americans have died of Covid while unrolling a life-saving vaccine is just a staggering display of idiocy. On thing I found striking was that deaths under the age of 60 have roughly doubled from 2020 to 2021. These are the people who decided that Covid was "just the flu" and that, while they might get sick, they wouldn't die. They don't let the flu determine what they can do, why should Covid do that?

I'm not a fan of the CovidActNow webpage, because their metrics are pretty strict. Here in Connecticut, they list as being at High Risk, because we have a rising number of cases and our infection rate is a little high. But 82% of Connecticut residents are at least partially vaccinated. Some of those positive cases are simply people who test positive or have a mild, vaccine-blunted case. Compare that to, say, Montana with its 58% vaccination rate. Somehow their "infection rate" is measured lower than Connecticut's despite having three times the cases. Their ICUs are 76% of capacity while Connecticut's is 17%. Eleven people a day are dying in Montana, despite having significantly fewer people, whereas only three people a day are dying on average in Connecticut.

People have been referring to the fall as the "pandemic of the unvaccinated." I think that covers the whole of the Delta Surge this summer, too. I was quite sick, but my life was not in jeopardy. The states with high vaccination rates are going to see Covid cases lingering around, but they aren't going to see ICUs maxxed out and refrigerator trucks used as morgues. 

What is clear and becoming clearer is that Covid was a demographic event of enormous significance. We are still losing a 9/11's worth of people every three days. That also does not capture the "deaths of despair" including drug overdoses that have claimed even more lives. When I went looking for a good graph or chart on excess deaths, most of what I saw was crap or inaccessible to laypersons. However, ballpark estimates are roughly an additional 200,000 to 400,000 deaths. 

While these deaths fell - as they ordinarily do - heaviest among the elderly, I don't think we've completely assimilated the disruption to the demographics of our world. 

UPDATE; Josh Marshall points out the good news in anti-viral therapies that should change our thinking a great deal about Covid. There is no longer much reason for Covid to be any worse than the flu, though I would argue that insufficient testing is still a bit of a glitch.

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Good Matt, Bad Matt

 I was prepared to disagree with Yglesias' take on the AMA adopting more inclusive language. He has a tendency to be pointless and aggressively contrarian. However, I think he strikes an important point that I've made in the past as well. Too often, groups engage in eyewashing issues like racist policies by changing language and symbols rather than actual policy. It's so much easier to produce a PowerPoint about how to talk about race than to inconvenience yourself with changing how things are actually done. For instance, our school does a lot of the right things surrounding language, but we still could increase the number of students of color, if we shifted more resources towards financial aid.

The specific take about the medical community is just a real stark example of how "doing something" really doesn't do anything, if the real problems lie unaddressed.

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

The Rittenhouse Trial

 I've only paid sporadic attention to it, but the conduct of the judge in the case certainly seems problematic. Ruling out the gun charge would seem to take away the murder charge. I can't speak for the laws of Wisconsin, but usually when you kill someone while committing another felony, that's automatically murder one. By removing the gun charge - for reasons that seem spurious - the judge makes it easier to acquit.

Frankly, Murder Two or even manslaughter seems most appropriate, but if he's completely acquitted, that basically gives license to any murder-minded fuckwad to insert themselves into any situation, kill someone and then claim self-defense.

Monday, November 15, 2021

Tek Rrr Jahbs

 Yglesias makes the economic case for increasing immigration at a moment when we have real labor shortages driving up costs. He's a "more immigration is good" anyway so this isn't surprising, but he's right that Americans - because of the pandemic and other reasons - are leaving the workforce and haven't been replaced. Especially in low wage fields like agriculture, there's a huge demand.

As far as solutions, he's a little light. But he mentions the idea that Trump dramatically scaled back legal immigration. Perhaps Biden could retroactively award the "missing" Green Cards from the Trump years.

Bringing legal immigrants from Guatemala and Honduras would serve two purposes. First, it would obviously provide the needed labor force to put food on our table. Second, it would incentivize staying in Guatemala and Honduras rather than trekking across Mexico and showing up, desperate, at the southern border.

This would, inevitably, invite a certain backlash from the Right, but if it's done via legal channels, I have to wonder if it wouldn't mute the xenophobic "Tek Rrr Jahbs" crew.

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Despicable

 It's not 100% clear what is going on between Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States, especially what the motivations of Putin and Belarusian strongman, Aleksandar Lukashenka, are. However, if Putin is orchestrating it, he's trying to destabilize the West, because that is always his priority. As Covid ravages Russia, a little saber-rattling probably makes him feel good.

However, it's HOW Belarus and Russia are pressuring the West that's really awful. They are flying refugees in from the Middle East and then trying to release them into Poland or Lithuania. They are basically using refugees - people already suffering untold hardships - as a pawn to elicit a fierce blowback from a bunch of racist Europeans who don't want Muslims in their lands.

Very ugly.

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Patience, Grasshopper

 The DOJ indicted Steve Bannon, because of course they did. There has been a swelling chorus of "WHY ISN'T GARLAND DOING ANYTHING?!1!?" because people have the attention span of gnats and the craving for immediate gratification. Usually, in a situation like this, the DOJ is trying to negotiate with the party in question so they don't have to indict. The point is to compel the testimony. So it took a few weeks. Mark Meadows will be next, but it won't happen Monday. 

Twitter Legal Eagles need to relax and let the professionals do their job.

Friday, November 12, 2021

Trump's Cheka

 This piece is just one of those Holy Shit Artifacts that we will continue to unearth about Trumpistan. Basically, it's what we already know but in Technicolor. Trump hired awful, awful human beings who were - not coincidentally - completely unqualified to do the jobs he gave them. The only qualification to work in the Trump Administration was unqualified fealty to the person of Donald Trump. Expertise or relevant work experience was unnecessary. One detail stuck out to me:

McEntee’s underlings were, for the most part, comically inexperienced. He had staffed his office with very young Trump activists. He had hired his friends, and he had hired young women—as one senior official in the West Wing put it to me, “the most beautiful 21-year-old girls you could find, and guys who would be absolutely no threat to Johnny in going after those girls.”

There it is. Trumpism in all it's repellant glory. A cult of personality intended to squeeze as much benefits from government work - the people's work -  as possible, especially gratuitous appeals to sexism. Nepotism, combined with cluelessness with a dollop of television ready attractiveness in women...it really is the apex of how fucking stupid Trumpism is.

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Higher Education Is Kind Of Broken

 News that a prestigious university like USC engaged in horrible behavior to harvest students and bilk them of tuition for bad online courses should not be a shock to anyone.

A number of years ago, I remember reading how automation, computers and fast communications (the internet) were increasing labor efficiency by leaps and bounds, but two sectors were immune to this: education and medicine. Medicine has subsequently found a way to use the internet to improve efficiency. When I had Covid pneumonia, I was in a little hospital on Nantucket, but my chest CT scans were read by a radiologist in Boston (I think).  The ability to share data quickly has lead to some real improvements in healthcare delivery.

Which leaves education. 

Public high schools are struggling with poor working conditions, mediocre salaries and now batshit insane parents and school board members threatening to burn books. But ultimately high school education is "always broken" and always trundling along, doing better than you think but not as good as it should.

Higher education is much worse. Because it's not universal, there is no need to create common requirements and standards. The advent of bloated bureaucracies of administrators has ballooned the budget without necessarily adding to the quality of the educational experience. Adjunct professors - the Uber drivers of academia - are now the standard. A university scrimps on teaching and scholarship, while building expensive new building to sell on the tours to harvest more full-pay students to pay more administrators.

Online "education" has a narrow potential to create a few good graduate level programs with flexible hours and workloads for people who need to keep working while they get an advanced degree. Because a prosperous life is now largely correlated with a BA-or-better degree, colleges can harvest students without actually providing them with a useful education. This isn't a "teaching" problem, it's an institutional problem.

We need national standards for online education, because it is rife with opportunities to scam students.

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

We Have To Change Our Metrics

 I'm seeing a lot of things like this tweet, that talk about rising cases in America. You see the same issue on Covid ActNow, which is a reliance on "cases" to talk about spread. As testing is still fairly pervasive, we have a much better idea of who is currently carrying the virus. If you look at the map at the tweet, you can see that Africa has almost no cases. Really? Given how poor their vaccination rates are?

Much more likely is that much of the developing world simply doesn't know who is infected, because they lack the testing infrastructure. However, knowing someone is infected does not determine whether they are sick. My county is currently listed as dark orange or "high" risk. Currently these are the numbers they list at Covid ActNow: Litchfield has about 14 new "cases" per 100,000; our R0 is 1.03; our positive test rate is 3.8% and 77% of residents have at least one dose of the vaccine.

One metric that they DON'T use is hospitalizations, especially ICU. They have it on their website though, and only 29% of ICU beds are filled. Deaths are sporadic. In fact, ActNow rates our vulnerability as Very Low, even as they rate our risk level as High.

That simply doesn't add up.

Covid is not going anywhere. We need to understand that. Andy Slavitt, an epidemiologist whose been a voice of sanity on Twitter (of all places), wants to stress that we are not at the end of this pandemic. Certainly new variants are pretty terrifying, as we saw with Delta. Reasonable precautions should be followed, but "reasonable" varies from person to person.

It seems we are finally moving past the Hot Take Season over Democrat's poor performance in Virginia and New Jersey, though everyone wants to focus on CRT and liberal culture war overreach. If you want to know my theory as to why Democrats suffered and why Biden has low approval ratings? Simple, Covid continues to bedevil our lives - both in terms of schools and the economy. There are still some school districts that are virtual or partly virtual. The disruptions to the economy are real, and people are unhappy. When they are unhappy they take it out on the President's party.

As we move into a world where vaccines and therapeutics greatly reduce the number of Covid deaths, we need to adjust how we deal with Covid. In the US, deaths are falling after the DeSantis Wave of early fall. Not quite to the rate of the giddy months of June and July, but deaths lag cases by several weeks, especially as we get better at treating the disease.

I wear a mask to class; I wear a mask to shop; but I'm not typical in my community. Lots of people in stores are going unmasked. It could very well be that they have Covid and are simply asymptomatic. There are small measures that we should continue to take. I don't really care about wearing a mask, but I very much want this wrestling season to happen. My athletes have missed a season that they will never get back.

We can no longer set policies, though, based on the idea that we have to get to zero infections, but as close to zero deaths as possible. Back in 2020, Trumpist talking points were that Covid was "just like the flu." That was bullshit. But that IS what we need to be willing to accept, and I wonder how we are going to measure that.

Tuesday, November 9, 2021

Measuring DEI Success

Professional Contrarian Matthew Yglesias has written a pair of articles drawing into question various practices surrounding DEI efforts in schools. His point is not to jump on the ludicrous CRT bandwagon, but rather to note that some of the controversial ideas of CRT are imbibed in graduate programs in education and come out in flawed practices.

Notably, he takes issue with the idea that poor performances by students of color on standardized testing means that the test are basically racist. In fact, it seems the evidence is much more suggestive that poverty, poor school infrastructure, poor school meals and poorly paid and trained teachers is a much more plausible root cause of poor performance. The stress of poverty, in fact, functions almost as a form of transient brain damage, no different than a concussion. Generational poverty therefore functions more like CTE. 

Another point he makes - and again, I can see the merit here - is that parent anger about public schools is less about CRT and more about prolonged school closures. This goes back to the long internecine warfare between people like Yglesias and Jon Chait over teacher's unions. Teacher's unions are reliable voting pools for Democrats, yet they often stand in the way of needed reform. Bad teachers should not be rewarded with lifetime sinecure. Mediocre teachers should be given the resources and a mandate to improve. Good teachers should be rewarded. However, because "good" and "bad" are often measured by standardized testing, there is a powerful incentive for unions to decry the merits of a metric that might hold them accountable for their classroom performance.

I have long been skeptical of education schools' scholarship. Here is a good example of why. Rigorous, evidence-based social science is REALLY hard. Political science really struggles to account for causation vs correlation, and using evidence that does not come with some form of inherent or implied bias (in an academic, not a racial sense). It very often fails, but the field sees the wrestling with the nature of evidence as a critical part of its scholarship. Very often, education studies rely on small data sets and don't filter for confirmation bias. 

Yglesias notes how phonics education for reading has really proven to work, yet schools stepped away from phonics. There was a really interesting comment from a parent whose child was struggling - to the point of tears - with algebra 1, because she had never memorized her multiplication tables. Phonics and memorization are "boring," our director of learning and pedagogy decries any attempt to drill into students basic facts via memorization. All the literature says "engagement" is more important.

If all this is true, how were we ever educated in the past? Of course, many millions were not educated well. Public education as "always been failing." And to a certain degree, pedagogy is malleable - a relationship between teacher and student. When I speak to current and former public school educators and they tell me that they have 160 students across six sections, I'm left speechless. It is almost impossible to find a pedagogical solution to those ratios. If I have 160 students, you're damned sure I'm going to give more multiple choice tests and fewer essays. At this point in the year, I'm starting to know exactly how each of my students write, what their relative strengths and weaknesses are, and what interventions they prefer, if any. Without knowing that baseline information, any blanket pedagogy is unlikely to help.

My school is excellent. It's not perfect, but it's excellent. We have amazing kids who are motivated to do well, both because they self-select to come here and because the environment promotes a culture of excellence. We have tailor-made supports for students who need them. It costs a shitload of money.

But I think it works, and I'm most proud of the dozens of students each year who come from the sort of backgrounds that typical don't produce four-year college students that we send on to very fine schools. We can change lives that way. Now, they self-select, they usually come through foundations that help prepare them to come here, they are not selected at random. However, it still works. And the evidence is, frankly, yes, some standardized tests like APs, and our college admissions picture. I had a wrestling captain whose parents lived over the bodega that they ran. He went to Johns Hopkins for pre-med. Those are my favorite stories, but they come with a measurable result.

So much of our DEI work has been...good? I guess? I know there's a playbook. We had a series of horrible acts of racist graffiti a few years back. We went through a series of meetings and ad hoc committees. After George Floyd, we added various affinity groups, held innumerable workshops, brought in guest speakers like Eddie Glaude, training over the summer...all the things the playbook says to do.

Maybe they helped? I don't know. I don't think we ever measured whether they helped. I would guess that affinity groups have helped students who are clearly a small percentage of our overall student body, feel safe to discuss certain things. But they also silo those experiences away from the White majority. What we have NOT done is measure the effectiveness of all those steps. We did not measure racial attitudes before and after we took those steps, especially among White students. If anything, the anecdotal evidence I got from my two (White) sons is that some of it may have unsurprisingly backfired. Our director of pedagogy is quick to note that lectures are often poor forms of instruction, and then we set off on a nine month sermon that probably reinforced racist or bigoted attitudes in exactly the sort of students we would have most liked to reach.

As a US History teacher, I feel very comfortable saying both that Thomas Jefferson was an extraordinary humanist, who introduced and advocated for popular rule and natural rights that was truly revolutionary, while predicating those amazing ideas upon a foundation of white supremacy. For democracy to challenge social hierarchies and castes, it had to be built upon racial hierarchies and castes. It can be both. And those ideas sowed the very seeds that destroyed the idea of racial castes and chattel slavery, even if their founder could not have imagined that.

In other words, education is messy and nuanced and incredibly human. If we are going to engage in improving it, we should probably account for that. And we should be skeptical of One Weird Trick pedagogies or the latest fad from the academy. My wife and I argue over the merits of having grades. The examples of schools that DON'T use grades and have success is great, until you realize that those schools have about 50 students over six grades. That's not a school, it's a tutorial. The "evidence" is not very rigorous.

As we - rightly - try and create a school system that is inclusive and is tasked with overcoming the history of racism in this country, we should make damned sure the methods that we use are actually working. I have no idea if they are.