What Does A Post-Roe World Look Like

 The assumption being made after oral arguments is that the Supreme Court will strike down Roe v Wade, either in total or in practical effect. I have no reason to doubt this. I've always felt that most Republican elite don't really care about abortion, but as we have seen time and again, they are captive to their evangelical base. So, they've been perfectly willing to mine evangelical voters with promises of overturning Roe, the smarter among them know that it is incredibly unpopular. 

Campos notes that there has been a whole subset of Center Left and Center Right (Susan Collins) types who have assumed that the noise from the Christianists about overturning Roe was simply noise, and that sensible people like John Roberts would not overturn established and reaffirmed precedent. Now that they have a 6-3 majority on the Court, there does not seem to be the same scruples. I've always felt that Roberts was worried about the legitimacy of the Court, hence his ruling in Sebelius, but that the path to overriding the 6-3 majority seems very much out of reach, so he will go for it. 

The horrible irony is that five of the Justices with lifetime terms were appointed by presidents who assumed office after losing the popular vote. The Court is intentionally "undemocratic" but it has become distressingly so in the era of GOP minority rule.

Anyway, let's assume that the Court effectively or definitively overturns Roe. I would lean towards effectively, as Roberts, Gorsuch and maybe Kavanaugh understand the political toxicity of overturning abortion rights. So they will craft a ruling that gives them a little bit of deniability. 

The key, ultimately, is whether this will move votes. The ruling will come out before the midterm elections. How many fence-sitting suburban women will flip their votes to Democrats over this? I fear the number will be distressingly few. Yes, roughly 60% of Americans believe abortion should be legal. How many of that 60% will base their vote off this belief? I have a detached support for abortion rights. I support it in a rather general way, and I'm sure that applies to the 60%. If you're a "single issue" voter on the subject of reproductive rights, I imagine you are already voting for Democrats.

I suppose that it could serve to rally voter in a critical midterm, but I just worry that middle class white women, who could be a critical tipping point demographic, will always be able to secure abortions for their daughters or themselves. Overturning Roe will fall disproportionately on poorer women, especially teenagers. It will take awhile for the horror stories of backalley abortions and dying women to change people's minds.

I've been saying for years that Christianists or political evangelicals are the greatest threat to American democracy, and the rush to overturn an established right seems to fit into that frame neatly. Is there enough democratic control over our government to make them pay?