Russia

It's unclear what Putin's plan is for Ukraine. His goals are pretty obvious. He wants a Ukraine that is separate from the West and largely dependent on Moscow for security. That is not what Ukraine wants, though. Ukraine wants increased integration with the EU and NATO. The problem is that authoritarian regimes can often get trapped in information silos more complete than the ones usually found in democracies. 

For instance, the Bush Administration created an information silo around invading Iraq in 2003. However, there was robust pushback and millions of people protesting in the street. Bush went ahead anyway in one of the worst foreign policy disasters in American history. The dissent, however, was real and substantial, and the self-evident failures in Iraq perhaps put an end to discussions about invading Iran. 

Putin faces none of that. There is no dissenting viewpoint that might interject a stark dose of reality into Kremlin plans. If Putin feels that invading Ukraine will not hurt him, then he will do it. This action if unlikely to occur without serious repercussions for Russia. Can he see that?

Frankly, the US and NATO should make the case that Russian military interventions in Ukraine make NATO membership more likely, not less. 

I've always felt that 9/11 broke something in this country. The specter of Islamist terrorists unleashed the latent racism and xenophobia simmering beneath the surface of American civil life. I wonder if the pandemic has broken something else. Not just here, but globally. There are mask protests and anti-vaxxers in Europe, too.

Covid might have broken something in Russia, and that could introduce instability into an authoritarian decision making system that has dire repercussions for us all.