I realize you don't want to get hooked on hopium, but I also think that it's going to be tough to capture the impact of Dobbs until we count all the votes in November. Josh Marshall has been collecting stories from women whose anger is palpable on the page.
Lindsay Graham's legislation is also a great example of just how tone deaf Republicans are politically on this issue. In all, I can see what he thinks he's doing. It does NOT ban abortion during the first trimester and there is some nod towards rape, incest and life of the mother, but it's very poorly constructed to continue to empower Talibangelicals at the state level. Secondly, it does NOT overturn Dobbs, which is the critical factor, giving Dobbs the feeling of permanence. Graham, who last came in contact with a vagina on the day he was born, simply cannot grok why women are so incredibly pissed.
Also, let's be clear that polling is deeply problematic these days. My own theory is that Trump motivates a certain segment of the population that is just really hard to reach, so you get results like 2016 and 2020 where the GOP significantly outperforms the polls. In 2018, the polls were their usual mixed bag - some leaned D, some leaned R - in part because Trump wasn't on the ballot. I also know from the behavior of partisan insiders, their internal polling is much more favorable to Democrats.
The people who do polls skew male, as well. They want to get their numbers right, and they don't want to have another 2016 (or even 2020) on their hands. As we get closer to the midterms, it will be interesting to dive into the polling data to see what their gender and age ratios are. I've never been a fan of relying on young people voting, but maybe Dobbs scrambles that.
At the very least, midterm elections are disproportionately skewed towards college educated professionals. This is why I'm OK with the Democratic party shifting towards that demographic. Dobbs, again, should motivate that group to move left.
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