There has been some effort to quash Democratic enthusiasm for a solid set of midterm elections by noting that the polls were really wrong in 2020 and 2016. Josh Marshall collects the arguments here.
As Marshall notes, the pundits urging caution tend to leave out 2018, which was a very good year for Democrats in congressional races. Some pundits note that 2018 was slightly overstated for Democrats in polls, too.
Maybe.
To me, it's pretty clear that pollsters cannot find or measure a segment of Trump voters. In 2018, Trump wasn't on the ballot, so Democrats performed much closer to the polling numbers, because Trump wasn't on the ballot.
It remains to be seen whether the GOP can motivate the Trump Coalition to get back to the polls, when the news surrounding Trump is terrible, the GOP have terrible candidates and then there's Dobbs. And the thing about Dobbs is that we can actively measure various special elections since the decision was reached and Democratic strength has been understated. Then you have the GOP seemingly intent on scoring own goals.
Certainly, yes, you should be skeptical of polls. But there has been real, measurable movement recently, too.
Get out to vote, people.
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