Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Russia's Own Goal

 Josh Marshall lays out how disastrous an "own goal" Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been from a policy standpoint. He doesn't even address how Finland and Sweden joined NATO or Russia's growing isolation. (Even Kazakhstan thinks it's terrible.)

Own issue that hasn't been addressed in anything I've seen is Russia's ongoing and pre-existing demographic problems. Russia has had a terrible death rate among men going back decades. Alcohol and other drugs and violent, stupid behavior kills a huge number of Russian men.

Now, if we are to believe the estimates, Russia has lost around 50,000 men in less than a year - roughly the number of Americans who died in over a decade in Vietnam. Now, they are about to send tens of thousands of raw, untrained recruits into a meatgrinder. Additionally, tens of thousands of young men are fleeing the country. I also can't imagine a ton of immigrants feeling like Russia is a place to move to.

Even if Ukraine wins a relatively quick victory by next spring, the demographic catastrophe will echo over generations.

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