Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Monday, September 12, 2022

Rumors In War

 There is a rumor - and it should be made clear that it's only a rumor - that Russia is not sending reinforcements to its collapsing front in northeastern Ukraine. Some of this may be a fact that Russia has significant manpower issues. They are prioritizing stabilizing things where they can, and that list is pretty short.

There might also be a sense among Russian military command that this is a lost cause, and they don't want to throw what's left of their battered army into a losing cause. It could also be that Ukraine really HAS killed or captured significant number of Russians and there are simply no more troops to send.

Finally, it seems that even Ukraine has been surprised at the complete collapse of Russian forces. They may be primed for another assault towards Mariupol, but their successes have put that on the backburner for now. But Russia might be holding what few troops they have in reserve for prong three of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

In 1950, when North Korean forces collapsed after Inchon, Stalin was said to be resigned to a US/UN/ROK victory. "Fine, let the Americans be our neighbors." Then Mao stepped in and altered the trajectory of the war, but Russia is - in George Kennan's word "opportunistic" in its foreign policy. They push and if the world pushes back, they will retreat. If that remains true for Putin, we could see a complete collapse of Russian forces into pre-February boundaries. 

I doubt Ukraine stops there.

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