New York

 The Democrats loss of the House comes down to New York state. Democrats in NY had created a soft gerrymander to help their candidates, in response to similar GOP gerrymanders in states like Texas, Wisconsin and Ohio. Additionally, The New York Post seems to have an outsized effect on perceptions of crime by voters in suburban areas.

I think the crime angle was determinative. As Blue States work to introduce more justice to our justice system, it lends itself to fear mongering by the Murdoch press. My state tried to end felony convictions for minors, to end the "school to prison pipeline." Instead, it may have contributed to a spike in car thefts by minors, who were recruited by adults to commit the crimes. The state has amended that process, but the damage was likely done.

The two leading causes of the abandonment of Great Society liberalism were inflation and crime. Republicans aren't blind to this history and they will run this playbook again, if possible.

Unsustainable

 It's difficult for most Americans to understand the profound grip that soccer/football/futball has on the rest of the world. It's somewhat manic.

Which is why the news that Iranians are celebrating their country's ouster from the World Cup by the United States (The Great Satan) feels like another watershed moment. It is sometimes difficult for Americans or Westerners to understand that authoritarian regimes can actually be legitimate in the eyes of its' people. 

Since Covid, anti-authority protests have rocked governments around the world, authoritarian to democratic. George Floyd to the Yellow Vests to Iran to China. But democratic regimes are more adaptable, and we are seeing a fundamental challenge to "the way things are" which democracies are better able to address. 

Right now, the only thing keeping the mullahs in power in Iran is the military, specifically the Revolutionary Guard. There is a non-Revolutionary Guard military, though, and if they break with the Ayatollah the way the previous military broke with the Shah, we could finally see Iran rejoin the community of nations that it left in 1979.

Freaking Out A Little Right Now

 Under two hours until US v Iran. My yardstick for this World Cup was to advance out of the group. A win and nothing else does that. This is a damned good team, but one that does not score goals with needed regularity. Can they find the two goals they might need to move on?

Actual Tyranny

 The GOP caterwauling about "lockdowns" during the pandemic never made objective sense. We locked down in the spring of 2020, but then slowly returned to a varying level of engagement by the summer. We were masked, but not locked down. By the following spring, we had enough vaccine penetration to begin to unravel even those restrictions. There were certain high density areas that continued to be mask heavy and some school districts remained remote, but we were not under "lockdowns" except for a few months in 2020.

Meanwhile, there is China. They have been actively pursuing a "Covid Zero" strategy of frequent lockdowns but a poor vaccine campaign. They are claiming this is working, but it's almost certainly a massive load of bullshit. I'm currently sitting in an ambulatory surgery center and I have to wear a mask. It feels profoundly strange (and itchy!) because it's been so long since I had to wear one for this long.

I agree with some voices who are concerned about Covid-based learning loss. We need a plan for this generation of young people. Kids are resilient, but they need support and understanding. However, the overall US plan - mask, vaccinate, boost - is a good one, and while Covid does still exist my school is frankly dealing with more cases of RSV and flu than Covid.

China's pursuit of a lockdown-centric Covid strategy is blowing up in its face, because it is an actual tyranny, not the pretend one of Lauren Boebert's fever dreams.

So, About Those Nazis...

 Interesting about Trump's dinner with Ye and (Kanye West) and Nick Fuentes. The fact that Fuentes is an outright fascist - I mean, like, textbook - seems to have had a small impact on Trump. He seems to be distancing himself from the dinner, saying he had no idea who Fuentes was or that he would be invited. Even Trump gets that this was a dodgy meeting.

His trolls and cultists are defending - not the dinner exactly - the liberal outrage over the fact that the de facto leader of the GOP broke bread with a Nazi.

This dynamic is so fucking perverse. Trump does something that SHOULD end a political career. Normal people call him out on this abhorrent behavior. Cult 45 swarms on to Elon's Hellspace to attack those who think Nazis are bad.

Look, there are plenty of other awful, awful human beings in the GOP! You don't HAVE to defend Trump. He's old and mean and stupid and likely a criminal in multiple ways. His continued footsie with Nazis does not have to be defended! Jettison this orange shitsack and let the country move on.

Totally Normal, Totally Fine

 Trump meets with Nazi, but even Trump seems to realize this isn't good. The beast is bigger than his creator.

Trolldom

 From Trump to Elon Musk to various online Nazis to...well, it's just everywhere...we have became suffused with trolls whose currency is attention. What did these odious creatures do before the internet? Where did they get their visceral thrills at forcing people to engage with their nonsense?

Why is this the way some people are?

Deplorables

The reaction to the Club Q shooting represents another return to the dark days when "America was great" because being gay or Black was illegal. The shooter's dad is...woof. The fact that the shooter was likely trolling people with his pronouns has been used by Angry Hobbit Ben Shapiro to argue that it wasn't a hate crime at all. Not the usual "lone wolf" or "mentally disturbed individual" angle, but pretty much "who gives a shit if queers die."

The premier counterfactual for this period in history is simply this: If all those Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania had voted for the email lady, would the Trumpist-style of hate-based politics remain at the margins - rather than the absolute heart - of GOP politics? How much license did Trump's "victory" give the absolute most hateful people in America to vocalize and act on their hate, or how much does Trump simply represent a moment that was inevitable? Is he cause or effect?

Oh, yeah, Happy Thanksgiving and shit.

Yeah, No

 Chait seems off base here. He's been flogging the DeSantis Warning Bell for over a year now, it's kind of his hobby horse. I agree that DeSantis is dangerous, but the US is (thankfully) not Florida. 

Chait's premise is that if DeSantis beats Trump in a primary (doubtful) then Trump will be OK with that, because DeSantis will promise Trump a pardon, and Trump hates Biden just as much. Trump's "rage at Biden" would be half that as his rage at DeSantis, because Trump struggles with object permanence. The DeSantis wound would be fresher and a greater threat to his narcissism. 

Yes, he denied Biden's win, but he would deny DeSantis' win. He cannot lose. It's fundamental to his personality. Chait says he lashed out at Cruz and Rubio before mellowing on them, because he needed them. No. He mellowed on them, because he had asserted his dominance over them, and they had rolled on their backs and peed onto their own bellies.

I'm never quite sure what to make of the criticism of the media for "normalizing" Trump. There's some merit to it, but it has some holes as a theory. This, however, is treating Trump, once again, like he's a "normal" politician. He's simply not. Trump is a fundamentally broken man, and he cannot countenance losing to DeSantis.

These Men Are Nihilists, Donny

 Interesting take on Kevin McCarthy's attempt to become Speaker and leader of a caucus that wants nothing to do with governing. The purpose of legislatures is to debate and pass laws. But the GOP doesn't believe in either debate of passing laws. They won't be able to pass tax cuts, because the Senate won't go along with them. Their main leverage is government shutdowns and debt ceiling hostage crises. But McCarthy won't have enough of a margin in his fractious caucus to ride herd of them.

As Marshall says, the Freedumb Caucus was Trump before Trump was Trump. They were the faction of the GOP that made Steve King a home and tormented John Boehner and Paul Ryan. They have already said they won't vote for McCarthy. Without the support of his full caucus, he's sunk. By my count, the GOP has locked in 218 seats in the House. They likely win CO-3 (sigh), CA-22 and CA-3. CA-13 is a toss-up still. I think Democrats hold on in AK-at large. So they will have between 220 and 222 seats and need a 218 for majority votes. That's three votes and the Freedumbers won't support him.

If you enjoyed the cascading and comic failures of the Boris Johnson-Liz Truss revolving door, you should enjoy watching a party that doesn't believe in government trying to run the government. 

Happy Survive Your Family Week

 To all who celebrate.

Orange Check

 Elon Musk's Carnival of Crazy has just gone to 11, as he's going to let Trump back on Twitter. As Josh Marshall notes, that really shouldn't freak people out. One of the unknowable aspects of Trumpistan is the degree to which coverage of Trump leads to support for Trump. 

I think at this point, with the data from 2020 and 2022 solidifying, we can say that Trump is a simultaneously a drag on Republicans and a motivator for some voters. The degree to which people are simply tired of his bullshit - January 6th and so on - has to be factored into this.

Trump is powerless to restrain himself. He will confess to crimes just because. Since there is now a special prosecutor investigating Trump's crimes surrounding January 6th and stealing documents, Trump could very well starting digging a hole that he can't escape. As Marshall notes, we need to beat Trumpism by beating Trumpism, not silencing it and hoping it goes away.

The Ariana Grande Theory Of Politics

 Solid thesis from Paul Campos that most Americans have an, at best, rudimentary understanding of American politics. This is similar to his knowledge of contemporary pop music. He knows a ton about the music of his youth, but very little about modern popsters - like Grande. Most Americans dip into politics from time to time, like scanning the radio dial and hearing something they kinda like, but whatever.

Or to put it in 2022 terms: the Politics of Vibes.

Obviously, for those who care deeply about politics and believes the old Pericles quote, "Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you," this is maddening. You're a citizen! This shit is important. Democracy depends on the Rational Voter idea of someone who votes to maximize the "good" in their life. 

Yet Trump and Trumpism is a secure harbor for those who really do not give a shit about rational choices. They are voting their feels, their vibes and their priors.

What's more, those of us who are infuriated by these people are exactly like music snobs who cannot for the life of them understand why Ed Sheeran is a huge star. I really like Taylor Swift's music, but her tickets are reselling at insane prices. WTF? How can you not see that Morgan Wallen's version of Cover Me Up is (ironically) a cover and inferior version to Jason Isbell's intensely autobiographical version?

Do liberals look down their noses at conservatives? Yeah, I think we do. But I don't look down my nose at someone who believes in supply side economics. I think they're wrong and evidence has demonstrated conclusively that they are wrong. But I get that they are making a choice of preferred policies. I do, however, look down my nose at someone who thinks Donald Trump is the greatest American in history. That's simply awful.

Twitterdammerung

 People have been saying Twitter was going to die from the moment Elon Musk began to talk about buying it. Apparently it might die this weekend. You have a lot of moments on there now of people saying goodbye to the friends they made online. 

It makes sense that it would fail now, as I finally had a "breakthrough" Tweet that skyrocketed me to 28,300 likes and hundreds of new followers. 

Nancy Smash

 We are awaiting word on Nancy Pelosi's future. I'm certainly split, because Pelosi has been the most effective Speaker in my adult life. Some of this is because the GOP is not capable of being a legislative party. They are interested in tax cuts and stripping government of the ability to function - precisely the opposite of crafting laws and policies that might benefit the country and even the world.

Could Hakeem Jeffries pick up where she left off? I suppose some of Pelosi's success is inherently personal to her. She is extremely effective in whipping votes outside of the DC limelight. Tales of her finding a childhood friend to lobby a wavering member of her caucus suggests this isn't just the inherent desire of the Democrats to pass good policy. However, she is not going to enter a nunnery after stepping down; she can be a resource for a new leadership team.

Perhaps more importantly, Nancy Pelosi is 81 years old; Steny Hoyer is 83; Jim Clyburn is 81 and, of course, Joe Biden is 79. The leadership in the House MUST change via a plan rather than on the fly. I think Pelosi knows this. Whether Hoyer does is unclear. Clyburn sounds like he wants to stay in the #3 slot. 

Elevating Jeffries (52) and Katherine Clark (59) seems like a solid plan to transition away from an aging - if still effective - Speaker. The only argument against it would be that Pelosi does not want to make it seem like the attack on her husband forced her out. That could incentivize more violence.

Whatever the case, Pelosi has earned - more than earned - the right to make her own decision.

Where Do You Even Start?

 Yglesias will occasionally falls face first into the pundit's mistake of assuming that the American electorate behaves as rational actors from an econ textbook. In this doozy of a column, he suggests that Ron DeSantis needs to delineate his policy preferences so that we can better assess his strengths as a candidate.

Who the f*** thinks voters make decisions that way anymore? This weird tic where political writers think that Trump won by moving away from Paul Ryan's GOP austerity budgets is one reason why we keep normalizing the insanity of the GQP. Trump voters - especially but not exclusively Cult 45 - like Trump because he's a bruising culture warrior. They don't really expect the government or politicians to actually do what they say they will do, but they want an avatar in the White House. Someone who hates the same people they hate.

You can't look at the 2020 election - where the GOP platform was basically to bow before Trump's Golden Calf - and suggest that these voters were motivated by policy. The word "vibes" gets thrown around to much, but there is really no other explanation for Trump's rise. The whole point of demagoguery is that it is emotive, not rational.

Is DeSantis basically Paul Ryan with Trump's hand gestures and rhetoric? Maybe. Or more likely, most GOP politicians want power first and while a few hew to important positions and philosophies, most just want power. If that means abandoning Paul Ryan's entitlement cuts - at least while campaigning - then any savvy GOP politician will do that. "Savvy" was a term used to describe the cynical position most press members and many DC figures adopted where actual governing policies are just postures to win elections, as opposed to actually governing the country wisely.

It is also worth noting that plenty of GOP politicians continue to thrust themselves into unpopular positions on issues like abortion, so maybe they will fall behind Rick Scott's draconian plan if they get power. 

The broader point is that GOP politicians - with a few exceptions - have no moral compass, no guidestar beyond whatever Trump says it is at any moment. The idea that DeSantis would offer a bunch of white papers on entitlements is just galactic pundit brain on Yglesias' part.

Here We Go Again

 Trump announced his bid to return to the presidency with a typical rambling, low energy, dark speech about American Carnage. I have to think most Americans - by a substantial margin - are tired of this shit. I know Cult 45 will never abandon him, but normie people just demonstrated in this midterm that they aren't OK with people who attack the basic idea of American democracy. (I heard democracy defined as "a system to execute a peaceful transfer of power." Not bad.)

I do think that - push polls notwithstanding - Trump defeats DeSantis. DeSantis is a whiny little bully, and Trump and his minions will eviscerate him. Plus, as I mentioned, Cult 45 will be there for him. Hopefully, the primary is long and painful.

I also think Biden beats Trump and maybe flips North Carolina. I have zero confidence in the voters of Florida or Texas finally getting wise to his shit. 

If Trump runs, I fear Democrats lose the Senate, unless people start really abandoning him in the face of multiple indictments and revelations of treasonous actions. My hoped for result -Trump loses to DeSantis and starts a third party run, complete with down ballot candidates - seems less likely. 

Still, Trump's schtick is old and tired and he is old and tired. DeSantis has the charisma of a sewer rat, but maybe he takes the old fool out.

GOP House

 It's all over but the shouting for "control" of the House. Looks like the GOP will end up with around 221 seats. Now, I say "control" because it's incredibly unlikely that someone like McCarthy can actually control this burlap sack of mad weasels. The biggest issue with a GOP House is both government shutdowns and potential debt default. I think the narrow margins makes it far more likely that the GOP agrees to raise the debt ceiling, though it would be awesome if Democrats would use the lame duck session to stop this stupid game of fiscal chicken. I do think you can find four Republicans out of 221 who don't want to start a global financial crisis.

Also, Kari Lake lost, bringing the record of election deniers to 0 for the entire freaking election. Meanwhile, I finally became popular on Twitter, right as it's dying.

Sports And Politics

 I don't really have any insights into this, but it was striking to me the last few days how much athletes and athletics are intertwining with politics on the global stage.

Obviously, we have the corrupt and illogical staging of the World Cup beginning next week in Qatar. From the moment it was announced until the moment they hand out the trophy, there has been a strong sense of WTF and disgust. Some of this naturally falls on FIFA, who make the Gambino Crime Family blush, but Qatar is apparently doubling down on being a shitty host and telling people not to protest. Good luck with that. I predict that at some point there will be large scale arrests during the Cup, either from drunken fans or LGBT protests. Well played FIFA

We also have numerous instances of Iranian teams refusing to sing their national anthem. I guess that constitutes a form of protest (as opposed to not knowing the words). There will be some interesting overlap with the Iranian men's team playing the US, England and Wales in the group stage of the World Cup. There's a fair amount of obvious bad blood between Iran and the US and UK. How will THAT play out against the simmering unrest in Iran will be interesting, too.

Meanwhile, on the subject of national anthems, Hong Kong's rugby team played the "wrong" anthem.

I guess to try and tie it together, the world in 2022 remains a brittle, fragile, angry, damaged place. Democracies are certainly dealing with this, but authoritarian regimes cannot by definition be flexible with their population. Sports elicits emotions in us that are hard to control. When they meet it could get combustible.

Speaker McCarthy

 Josh Marshall lays out a compelling argument that a narrow GOP House majority - like one or two seats - would actually be in Democrats' best interest. The basic contours are this: Democrats do not have 52 seats in the Senate, so they won't be able to pass Roe. They will have control of the Senate, so they can confirm judges. But having a batshit insane clown posse "running" the House means that Biden can take credit for what I imagine will be a much improved economy in 2024, without having to answer for not passing Roe or Voting Rights or any other pet issue.

I'm not 100% sure I agree. I wonder if there are 9 GOP cloture votes for Roe to get it off the table after this week. But it does track with Obama and Clinton's reelections.

Nerdcasting

 This fall has seen two fairly prominent fantasy shows and a third less prominent sci-fi show. The fantasy shows - The House of the Dragon and the Rings of Power - are pretty good. I enjoyed watching them. The sci-fi show - Andor - is in my opinion, the best thing to ever come out of the Star Wars cinematic universe. 

Now, I think the competition isn't great. Star Wars is a cultural force, but most of the movies and TV shows are pitched to kids. The godawful prequels seem entirely created to show of Lucas' new F/X and sell merchandise to kids under 15. Baby Yoda is adorable, but...c'mon.

Andor, by contrast, is the first Star Wars project where you can imagine people having sex (it opens in a brothel). Rather than just starting off from the presumption that "Empire Bad/Rebels Good," it demonstrates with emotional force just how cruel the Empire is. They aren't the Bad Guys because they were scary uniforms - they are genuinely evil in a bureaucratic way. Additionally, the main Good Guys are incredibly complex characters. Stellan Skarsgard is great in everything, but he gave a monologue this week that was brilliant all the way from the writing to the delivery. 

Rumor has it that Andor isn't being watched as much as bullshit fan-service like The Book of Boba Fett. That is the loss of everyone who enjoys good sci-fi.

Remember How Biden Was Always Screwing Up?

 All the Kewl Kidz were saying that Biden's pre-election message of "democracy is on the ballot" was a terrible blunder. He should have offered a policy package on inflation and crime. 

Anyway, so far every election denier running for Governor or Secretary of State has lost. If Katie Hobbs holds on then they will be 0 for '22. Especially in Governor's races, the focus on electoral legitimacy and "democracy" - exactly the tactic behind Biden's closing message - turned out to be smart.

Once again, the Kewl Kidz need to realize that the Irish pol from Scranton absolutely "get" politics.

Is This The End?

 Jon Chait lays out the case that Ron DeSantis could oust Trump as the head of the Trumpist movement (aka the GOP). It's a fairly compelling case, but one based on a fundamentally unprovable assumption: Trumpists are loyal to the GOP as an institution.

Beginning Tuesday night, various Rightist media outlets, led by Fox, began to note the same things they noted in 2016 and January 2021: Trump is a problem. In favor of Chait's argument is the fact that in 2016, the GOP was hopelessly splintered among a host of candidates, which allowed Trump to skate by with 35%-40% of the vote in each primary. A binary choice between Trump and DeSantis would deprive him of that ability. 

He argues less persuasively that after the insurrection, the GOP briefly abandoned him, only to return because to turn on Trump was to acknowledge Biden won. That doesn't really work for me, because GOP elites KNEW Biden had won. The issue - as always - is that the GOP establishment is afraid of losing those WWC voters who respond to Trump in ways that are both mystifying and strong. Cult 45 is a real thing. There is an argument that they have a figure to turn to in 2024 that they lacked in 2021, but that same dynamic of not wanting to alienate Trump's cultists isn't going away.

Max Weber wrote about what he called "charismatic legitimacy." This referred to a leader who represented an idea of some sort that gave him or her special standing. Famously, Hitler and Mandela both enjoyed charismatic legitimacy - it's neither good nor bad. Trump is the manifestation of White Grievance. People can't understand why Trumpists are drawn to him in really perversely devout ways, but if he's understood in terms of the avatar of White Grievance, then it makes more sense. Trump's actual words and deeds are less important than his symbolic stature.

Weber also said that charismatic legitimacy is inherently ephemeral. Charismatic figures die or fade away. What had to happen was what he termed "the routinization of charisma." This is why Lenin could die, they could display his embalmed body and create the "Marxist-Leninist" state. Same deal with Mao or Khomeini. You create a cult of personality that endures beyond the charismatic figure. Chait argues that this process is already under way:

To be sure, that does not mean (DeSantis) can convince Republicans voters he can out-strongman Trump. He definitely lacks the former president’s skills as a showman and performer. But the idea Trump’s personality cult can’t be replicated misses the fact Republicans build personality cults as a matter of course. Ronald Reagan was a cult figure. Two decades ago, George W. Bush created an intense following — conservative organs were selling coin and bronze busts of his likeness. (This was all wiped from memory when the conservative movement decided Bush was a liability and retroactively decided he was a fake conservative all along.) The emotional bond between Trump and the party base may be stronger than these previous versions, but the base is filled with authoritarian personalities who are habituated to finding new leaders to follow.

The flaw in this is, of course, that Bush's personality cult did not come at the expense of Reagan's. As Chait notes, Trump's cultish following is more cultish than those two who were fundamentally normal politicians in ways that Trump isn't. That's precisely WHY Trump has a hold on a constituency that wasn't a strong participant in politics prior to his arrival.

The single best outcome of this possible fight between DeSantis and Trump is that the GOP establishment manages to oust him in a bruising, nasty primary fight that leaves the perpetually aggrieved Trump furious. Trump then launches his own Trump/MAGA Party that includes candidates for the House and Senate. The 2024 Senate map is unkind to Democrats, including defending seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. If - say - Joe Manchin or Jon Tester only tops out at 45% of the vote, while the Republican gets 35% and the MAGA candidate gets 30%, you get six more years of that Senate seat.

Trump has always been a match throwing arsonist in a room full of open gasoline cans. A decisive break with the institutional GOP that leads to a nihilistic MAGA party bid would lead to consolidated Democratic gains in 2024 and the long term alienation of those WWC/MAGA voters from the institutional GOP.

One can hope...

UPDATE: That didn't take long.

The Senate

 Jon Ralston is the "dean of Nevada politics" and he thinks that Catherine Cortez Mastro will likely pull out a narrow win in Nevada, based on the currently uncounted ballots being primarily from Las Vegas, where she's win closing to 60% of the vote. 

Mark Kelly still looks most likely to hold on and win in Arizona, which gets Democrats to 50 seats, plus Kamala Harris' tiebreaking vote. 

Which SHOULD mean that the Georgia referendum won't have an impact on control of the Senate - there won't be enough Democrats to end the filibuster - and hopefully the people of Georgia will decide that embarrassing themselves by electing a benighted fool like Herschel Walker isn't worth dragging themselves to the polls.

51-49 is better than 50-50 for a number of reasons. First, Senate terms are for 6 years and the 2024 map has Democrats defending Senate seats in Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin and West Virginia, with precious few opportunities to pick off Republican seats.

Secondly, the dynamic of 50-50 allowed Manchin and Sinema to play off each other. There is a slim but existing chance that Democrats improbably hold on to the House by the skin of their teeth. If so, Democratic leadership can negotiate with Manchin OR Sinema for the 50th vote.

In the end, the narrow losses in North Carolina and Wisconsin's Senate races hurt for precisely this six year cycle reason. Still, being able to fill judgeships and pass (part of) the federal budget is critical.

Could be BS

 There's this, but if this data is from exit polls, it might be BS.

I'm a bit skeptical of the collapse among White Gen-Xers, because I could see them making extensive use of early voting. However, those are pretty stark numbers for the party of Old White People.

In Other Possibly Good News...

 Looks like Russia might be abandoning Kherson. I say "might" because there is some real question as to whether they are trying to bate the Ukrainians into a trap, but let's presume they are actually making the sound decision to retreat across the Dnipro.

While this will simplify some aspects of keeping Russian troops supplied, it will bring Ukrainian HIMARs within reach of the supply bottleneck where Crimea meets the rest of Ukraine.

Allowing Ukraine to establish a defensive line on the Dnipro could also free up troops for an assault in Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

Disaster Averted, Opportunity Missed

 Looks like I may have been right yesterday. On the one hand, there was no Red Wave. America remains an intensely divided country and that was demonstrated in the midterm. If - and at this point it's still unclear - Democrats can hold on to their Senate seats in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona then they will have a one seat majority. Even losing one of those seats will mean Biden can appoint judges and executive branch officials. However, losing an opportunity to flip Wisconsin (still possible, but...yeah) and North Carolina means that you are stuck with two execrable Senators from states that could, theoretically, elect a Democrat. In fact, I think Democrats need to give up on Florida and work on North Carolina as the next "purple" state.

The House looks like it will tilt to the GOP, but it will not be the wipe out many feared. In some ways it doesn't matter, as the difference between a 4 seat and 40 seat GOP majority isn't especially relevant. With a small majority, the House might not force a debt default, which would be, ya know, a good thing.

The Red Wave that was going to sweep out people like NY governor Kathy Hochul never appeared. In fact, Democrats may do pretty decently in gubernatorial races, especially if Katie Hobbs can hold on to beat the frightening Kari Lake.

In August, I saw a potential to add 3-4 Senate seats and hold the House. The GOP has offered no plan to deal with the very real issues of inflation, crime and energy prices. They shouldn't even be competitive. However, we will take our wins where we can. Plus, Lauren Boebert might lose! 

My Prediction

 I think Democrats lose the House, but it's not a total rout, as GOP gerrymandering has reduced the number of swing seats held by Democrats. The Senate remains in Democratic hands...I think, I hope. However, I can definitely see a scenario where rankly unqualified candidates like Oz and Walker win. The idea of a thermostatic election that swings from one party to another is predicated on there being enough non-aligned voters. Turnout, too, is a huge issue in the midterms. Can the Dems get enough pissed off women to the polls?

I also predict a messy night of returns. I'm very much considering turning off the news and my phone and going to see a movie or something. I don't want to watch that fucking needle at the NY Times crush my hopes for functional governance.

At any rate, Mandela Barnes and John Fetterman will stop hitting me up for money, so at least there's that.

Crime

 My gut says if we lose the Senate tomorrow it will be because a fear of crime drove enough suburban women in PA, GA, AZ and OH to forget Dobbs and worry about faceless criminals.

As Scott Lemieux notes (in citing Radley Balko) the actual data on crime is mixed and confusing. Murders went up from 2020-21 but they are trending downwards. They are still higher than 2019. Other forms of crime are NOT up, despite the vibes that they are. (We just exchanged texts with our son who is in Savannah who saw a likely drug deal outside his house. That "feels" like crime is increasing.) With Fox and other news sources blaring crime stories, the actual data doesn't matter.

What is interesting is that the perception - not the reality, but the perception - is that Democrats slashed funding to the police. Didn't happen outside Portland and Minneapolis. There does seem to be some instances of police forces being understaffed, but there was no concerted effort to make that happen. In fact, the Biden Administration spend MORE money on cops.

Yet we will likely get a Republican House and possibly Senate because people just naturally trust the party of January 6th to be the law and order party.

Tomorrow

 Ugh. I don't know.

I think the politics of "thermostatic" elections, whereby the independent voter throws our politics into chaos because of vibes, is stupid but real. I know that inflation is not a policy problem and that crime isn't a Democratic problem, but it will likely lead to robust GOP turnout. I don't know how Dobbs and January 6th will put a dent in that.

If Democrats manage to hold on to even a 50-50 Senate, I think we have to chalk that up as a win. The GOP nominated terrible candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina and Arizona. Ideally that means Democrats hold on to the ability to staff the Executive and Judiciary branches, but I'm despondent, frankly.

As Paul Campos writes:

Of course this is what reactionary centrists have been saying forever, and it’s easy enough to pick apart the bill of particulars: no elected Democrat above the level of a Berkeley city council member has advocated anything like defunding the police, crime isn’t actually up, national Democrats don’t actually favor more liberal immigration policies, inflation is an international phenomenon at present that has almost nothing to do with any Democratic policies, trans panic is a completely made up issue, “valuing hard work” is just code for there are too many colored people voting for Democrats etc. etc.

Just vote. It's all you can do.

Trump v DeSantis

 Keep an eye on the burgeoning feud between DeSantis and Trump. The best we can hope for is that Trump signals for enough of his cultists to sit out the Florida election and Crist wins. Then DeSantis and Trump square off in LoserFest 2024. DeSantis would have been a uniquely horrible human being if it wasn't for Trump warping our metrics for what counts as an awful person in politics.

Rooting for injuries.

Hey, God? Are You There?

 Maybe it's time to come down and smite some assholes.

Pretty Much

 This nugget from Martin Longman sums it up:

The problem the Democrats have right now is really not that they’re doing an inadequate job of explaining the threat to democracy if the Republicans win, nor is it that their platform is too partisan to attract independents and conservatives. Their problem is that they’re in charge at a time when people are very unhappy. Voters tend to express their unhappiness by punishing incumbents. A winning strategy has to convince a lot of people that the Republicans are the source of their unhappiness, and that’s a heavy lift.

The Stakes

 Yglesias lays out what is at stake next Tuesday. I mostly agree, but would make some distinctions.

At the Federal level, maintaining control of the Senate is critical and still possible. Republicans will not confirm either judges or executive branch positions if Dems can't hold the chamber. Ideally, they add to their margins by defending Arizona, Georgia and Nevada (in ascending order of difficulty) and add to it in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida or Wisconsin. If Dems lose the House, we will be faced with the usual Republican fuckery surrounding the debt ceiling and government shut downs, but whatever, I guess. Stupid business as usual.

At the state level, electing election-deniers and Big Lie proponents is a real long term threat to the integrity of the 2024 election. Electing some Big Lie Secretary of State in Arizona won't "secure the border" or stop inflation, it will simply imperil democracy in this country.

Notably, Yglesias has a poll that asks what each side will do if they assume power. People say if Democrats gain control they will pass a national version of Roe. and increase Social Security benefits Yes, they will. They also say that - despite having the power to do so for two years and NOT doing it - they will "open the border" and cut police funding. The last two are solid Fox News talking points that have zero impact on actual governing realities. 

Meanwhile, if Republicans take over people think they will increase US energy production. No, they won't because we already ARE increasing energy production. They probably won't try to pass an national abortion ban, because they know it's unpopular and Biden will veto it anyway. Will they follow through on vague threats to impeach Biden? I'm guessing yes. Will they try and overturn Democratic wins in elections? Absolutely.

What's infuriating is that this sort of coverage is largely absent from the media. We get endless stories abut inflation, which is real, but also we are in a period of robust economic growth (plus a war and post-Covid disruptions). For many people, I'm guessing inflation is a nuisance rather than a crisis, but the non-stop drumbeat of inflation stories makes it feel like we are spiraling out of control.

Biden can give a speech talking about the very real threats to America's democracy and all the media can offer is theater criticism and the fact that he didn't mention inflation.

If democracy dies in this country, our news media will be the pallbearers at the funeral.

Has It Started?

 A "pre-winter" offensive by Ukrainian forces has seemed inevitable since they entered an operational pause after the September offensive. Ukraine is now reporting significant Russian losses in men and armored vehicles in the last 24 hours. This might just be propaganda - how would they know they've killed 800 Russian soldiers? - or it might be the beginnings of the late-Fall campaign. 

The seaborne drone attack on Sevastopol could have been designed to drive the Russian navy away from the Ukrainian coast, so that it could not provide cover around Kherson, for instance. 

Also, Russia has re-entered the grain deal that allows for Ukrainian grain to be exported under UN auspices. Turkey appeared to be the guarantor of the ships' safety, which would have meant any Russian attack on the grain shipments would have risked direct military contact with NATO. Instead, Russia backed down. At most critical junctures, Russia has been careful to avoid crossing NATO's redlines. Worth keeping in mind as we debate Russia's nuclear threshold.  

Elon

 This is a wonderful takedown of Elon Musk's Twitter takeover. (This isn't bad either.) It's so obviously accurate that Twitter exists in a tiny niche of simmering resentment that it's impossible Musk didn't know what he was getting in to. In fact, it seems as if precisely the awfulness of much of Twitter was what appealed to him in the first place.

The fact that he paid a ridiculous amount of money for an unprofitable company that cannot possibly be anything other than what it is makes this whole thing hilarious. 

I've mentioned in the past that I've had my share of interactions with students who see Musk as a sort of tech-messiah, a real life Tony Stark. I never saw it. As far as I know, Musk is not, in fact, some engineering genius. He has bachelor's degrees in physics and economics. He's a venture capitalist of the sort that are thick on the ground in Silicon Valley. Silicon Valley, in fact, is perhaps better understood as a hub of venture capitalism rather than technological innovation.

While is Musk is undoubtedly "smart," he is also a man cosseted from a young age by immense wealth. He grew up within the comforts of apartheid South Africa to the son of a wealthy emerald mine owner. That's not his "fault" but we've seen repeatedly recently - with Trump the Platonic Ideal of this - that wealthy people, especially men, are just wired differently because they have been so insulated from the typical consequences most of us have to face.

So, we have Trump - a pampered scion of a wealthy slumlord - becoming a celebrity despite running multiple business into bankruptcy who decides this is sufficient life experience to become president. The resulting shitshow may yet break American democracy. 

Musk, meanwhile, has bought into his own hype about being the next Nicola Tesla. In fact, he's the next Thomas Edison, a man who had a few good ideas, but mostly stole the hard work of those who worked for him. Edison, however, never made as bone-headed a move as buying Twitter. That Musk thought he could somehow make Twitter "work" is a prime example of Wealth-Induced Hubris.

Maybe his fanbois are right and this enfant terrible will make Twitter something glorious and profitable. Or maybe human nature remains human nature and he will fail, because he does not understand people much at all.