The Democrats loss of the House comes down to New York state. Democrats in NY had created a soft gerrymander to help their candidates, in response to similar GOP gerrymanders in states like Texas, Wisconsin and Ohio. Additionally, The New York Post seems to have an outsized effect on perceptions of crime by voters in suburban areas.
I think the crime angle was determinative. As Blue States work to introduce more justice to our justice system, it lends itself to fear mongering by the Murdoch press. My state tried to end felony convictions for minors, to end the "school to prison pipeline." Instead, it may have contributed to a spike in car thefts by minors, who were recruited by adults to commit the crimes. The state has amended that process, but the damage was likely done.
The two leading causes of the abandonment of Great Society liberalism were inflation and crime. Republicans aren't blind to this history and they will run this playbook again, if possible.
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