A "pre-winter" offensive by Ukrainian forces has seemed inevitable since they entered an operational pause after the September offensive. Ukraine is now reporting significant Russian losses in men and armored vehicles in the last 24 hours. This might just be propaganda - how would they know they've killed 800 Russian soldiers? - or it might be the beginnings of the late-Fall campaign.
The seaborne drone attack on Sevastopol could have been designed to drive the Russian navy away from the Ukrainian coast, so that it could not provide cover around Kherson, for instance.
Also, Russia has re-entered the grain deal that allows for Ukrainian grain to be exported under UN auspices. Turkey appeared to be the guarantor of the ships' safety, which would have meant any Russian attack on the grain shipments would have risked direct military contact with NATO. Instead, Russia backed down. At most critical junctures, Russia has been careful to avoid crossing NATO's redlines. Worth keeping in mind as we debate Russia's nuclear threshold.
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