Coalitional Collapse

 "Democrats have to fall in love; Republicans just fall in line." - James Carville

The nature of America's electoral system necessitates a two party system. Since we don't have proportional representation and have 'winner take all' districts, voters need to more or less fall into one of the two broad coalitional parties. Dilettantes may lament the fact that they don't get their own very special party that caters to their explicit desires, but that's just the reality.

Trump came to power both times mostly because he was the Republican nominee. That alone gets him to the low 40s in votes. His own perverse appeal as a reality TV star and celebrity billionaire gets him the rest of the way. Trump has decidedly engaged a part of the electorate who is not usually engaged, but that doesn't mean the rest of the Republican coalition is irrelevant.

Richardson records how Trump's economic self-immolation and overall idiocy is fracturing that coalition.

Are you one of those rural farmers who vote reliably Republican? His tariffs are going to kick the shit out of you, and his shuttering of USAID has already destroyed some agricultural subsidies.

Are you a Chamber of Commerce Republican? The markets are expressing their concerns in rather stark terms.

Are you an anti-vaxxer? We have the second recorded death from measles and RFK is now retreating from his own warnings about vaccines in the face of actual deaths.

Do you live in Tornado Alley? Trump gutted FEMA.

Are you elderly? Social Security is on the brink of a "death spiral".

Are you a libertarian? Trump has arrested and deported innocent people without due process.

It's 10:30 and markets in the US are already falling. All the warning lights of a recession are blinking red.

Perhaps the worst news of all is that it's so far from the midterm elections when we can restore some sanity to at least one branch of government.