Green Sprouts

 The news wasn't earth shaking, but there were a few things yesterday that could give one hope. The encouraging but not wonderful news were the special elections results in Florida. Democrats were not able to win either seat, but they significantly increased their vote share in deeply Republican districts. If that trend simply stays the same, they will easily win control of the House and maybe even the Senate in 2026.

A caveat. Let's look at Florida 1. In November, Serial Sexual Predator Matt Gaetz won 274,000 votes compared to Gay Valimont's 140,000. That's 66% v 34%. Valimont ran again in the Special last night. She increased her share of the vote to 42%, but her actual vote total fell to 72,000. That's the problem comparing a special election in April to a general election in a presidential year. 

We see the same dynamic in Florida 6. In November, Mike Waltz won 66% of the vote with 284,000 votes. Fellow Republican Randy Fine saw his share of the vote decline to 56%. That's a pretty big movement, but Josh Weil, his Democratic challenger, actually got 60,000 fewer votes than the Democrat who ran against Waltz, James Stockton.

The margins got better, but these elections are not necessarily predictive of what will happen in November 2026. On the other hand, there is ample evidence that Trumpist voters don't show up when he's not on the ballot. That might not flip a deeply Red House seat in Florida, but a swing district in NY or Pennsylvania sure looks more achievable. 

If we look at the better news from Wisconsin, we see something more encouraging. In November, Trump won Wisconsin with 49.71% of the vote and 1,697,000 votes. Susan Crawford, the Democrat, won election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court with 55% of the vote and 1,301,000 votes. There about a 1,000,000 fewer votes than in November, but that's a far more robust voter turnout than we saw in the Florida elections.

Put another way, the actual swing state swung towards Democrats, and they did so despite Elon Musk trying his damnedest to buy that Supreme Court seat.

The other green sprout occurred in, of all places, the floor of the Senate. Cory Booker conducted the longest filibuster in history, erasing segregationist Strom Thurmond from the top spot. Yes, it was performative. No, it did nothing to erase the Republican advantage in either chamber. Still, Democratic rank and file voters are looking for something, anything that demonstrates some fight.

Democrats have been moribund, with a few exceptions. Booker's speech went viral. His hoarse voice at the end pleading for Americans and his colleagues to be equal to the challenge was really impressive.

Democrats need victories, however small, however symbolic. Wisconsin and Booker gave them two. Florida promised some hope.