Thursday, November 8, 2012
The Sobering Truth
After watching that wonderful clip of Rachel Maddow and wading through the delectable salty tears of the deranged dead-enders, I thought some sobering perspective was in order.
The American people returned a GOP House of Representatives. This is despite the fact that the Democrats won 500,000 more House votes nationwide than did the GOP. In other words, the public as a whole preferred a Democratic House. Here the story.
But our system does not work that way. Some do. South Africa, for instance, has a system where everyone votes in a single, nationwide district and the percentage of votes each party gets determines how many seats in the legislature they get.
There are reasons why this is not a good thing, primarily in that you don't have a direct representative in the government. Parties also become more powerful than voters. So I'm not advocating for a pure proportional representation system.
No, this is about gerrymandering.
In Pennsylvania, Obama won by 5% points, but Democrats won 5 of the 18 House seats. In Virginia, Obama won a squeaker, Democrats won 3 of 11 House seats. In Ohio, Obama won, but the Democrats won 4 of the 16 House seats.
That's gerrymandering.
Even where Obama won... In Georgia, Obama won 45% of the vote, Democrats won 5 of 14 House seats. Mitt Romney won 40% of the vote in Connecticut, the GOP got 0 Representatives. Looking at my own district, a conscious decision was made to incorporate as many cities into the 5th District as possible, and those cities provided Elizabeth Esty with her margin of victory.
To look at a congressional map is to look at the fine parsing of demographic lines.
The real tragedy of 2010 was not losing control of the House, but losing control of the state houses. That was where the decisions were made to redraw the lines to return a disproportionate share of Republicans.
In Pennsylvania, for instance, the following districts gave the GOP candidate more than 60% of the vote: the 4th, 5th, 9th, 10th and 18th. None of them won more than 66% of the vote. Here's a list of the five districts the Democrats won and the percentage of the vote they won: 1st/85%, 2nd/89%, 13th/69%, 14th/77%, 17th/61%.
In Ohio, the lowest percentage of vote for a winning Democratic House member was 68%. The highest percentage for a winning GOP candidate was 64% (not counting Boehner who ran unopposed).
I could go on, but...
The result is that the current crop of legislative nihilists have no desire to compromise and no need to. They are from safe districts until 2022.
California re-drew their districts based on less partisan lines, using a citizen commission. The result? Incumbents went down to defeat, and perhaps not coincidentally, their delegation went from a 34/19 split to 35/15 with 3 too close to call, but the Democrats leading in all three.
In the end, probably the only way around gerrymandering is a constitutional amendment.
I have a hunch that won't happen.
Romney Concedes Florida
My predictive powers are awesome indeed.
So as not to double up posts, here is something that is purely distilled schadenfreude:
http://whitepeoplemourningromney.tumblr.com/
While, yes, these are a bunch of very white people, I was surprised at how many of them were young-ish. I'd say a 50-50 split between grumpy old geezers and young white people who still think Bush was a great president.
On another note, reading through the schadenfreude files, it is stunning how melodramatic and historically wrong the Right has become. Part of it, was that they had bought into their own bullshit. They really thought Romney was going to win. He was never going to win.
Secondly, they bought into their hype about Obama. That's also bullshit. So now, having convinced themselves that Obama is a Muslim, Kenyan, Marxist Socialist, they are convinced America is doomed. The reasons America is doomed are - of course - unhinged. America might be doomed, but that's only if the nihilist caucus in the House gets their way again.
Obama is a rational, measured hawk. He refused to nationalize the banks or the health care system. He passed a modest form of banking reform. He believes that the rich should pay the same rate they paid under Clinton. He believes women should be able to get contraception without being hassled over it.
And for this he is a monster.
Sometimes, when a psychotic is confronted by the depth of their delusions, they are able to snap out of it a little. But for most, it simply reinforces the delusion.
Sadly, I think the GOP is going to sink deeper into delusion.
So as not to double up posts, here is something that is purely distilled schadenfreude:
http://whitepeoplemourningromney.tumblr.com/
While, yes, these are a bunch of very white people, I was surprised at how many of them were young-ish. I'd say a 50-50 split between grumpy old geezers and young white people who still think Bush was a great president.
On another note, reading through the schadenfreude files, it is stunning how melodramatic and historically wrong the Right has become. Part of it, was that they had bought into their own bullshit. They really thought Romney was going to win. He was never going to win.
Secondly, they bought into their hype about Obama. That's also bullshit. So now, having convinced themselves that Obama is a Muslim, Kenyan, Marxist Socialist, they are convinced America is doomed. The reasons America is doomed are - of course - unhinged. America might be doomed, but that's only if the nihilist caucus in the House gets their way again.
Obama is a rational, measured hawk. He refused to nationalize the banks or the health care system. He passed a modest form of banking reform. He believes that the rich should pay the same rate they paid under Clinton. He believes women should be able to get contraception without being hassled over it.
And for this he is a monster.
Sometimes, when a psychotic is confronted by the depth of their delusions, they are able to snap out of it a little. But for most, it simply reinforces the delusion.
Sadly, I think the GOP is going to sink deeper into delusion.
The Victory Lap
Find yourself 15 minutes of free time.
Find a comfortable spot - a chair, a couch - and maybe bring a snack or a frosty beverage.
Make sure your internet connection is strong.
And enjoy:
http://tbogg.firedoglake.com/2012/11/07/there-are-real-problems-in-the-world/
Find a comfortable spot - a chair, a couch - and maybe bring a snack or a frosty beverage.
Make sure your internet connection is strong.
And enjoy:
http://tbogg.firedoglake.com/2012/11/07/there-are-real-problems-in-the-world/
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Historical Note
If Obama pulls out a majority of the popular vote, he will be the third Democratic president to win two popular vote majorities, after Andrew Jackson and Franklin Roosevelt.
The Death Of The Wedge Issue
Voters in several states had two wedge issues on the ballot: same sex marriage and marijuana laws.
In Maryland, Maine and Washington, voters - for the first time - explicitly and directly legalized same sex marriage. Particularly in Maryland (Baltimore) I think Obama's endorsement of same sex marriage made a real difference.
In Massachusetts, suddenly a lot of people developed glaucoma, as they legalized medical marijuana. In Colorado and Washington, they said, "Forget nausea and PTSD, just spark up dude!" The legalization of small amounts of marijuana is a remarkable thing to happen by ballot initiative. Medical marijuana only barely failed in Arkansas.
Arkansas.
The War on Drugs and the War on "Traditional Marriage" have been conservative vote getters for decades. Gay marriage may have cost John Kerry the presidency.
Those days are gone, apparently, although we might see a marijuana backlash at some point.
Watching the presidential returns was like watching a DVR'ed football game, where you already knew who won, but you were waiting to see how it played out.
But the ballot initiatives were truly interesting.
Nate Silver Is A God
He should seriously strut through the NY Times newsroom in a gold plated jockstrap.
If Mike Trout wins the AL MVP, he may ascend to heaven on a cloud of cherubim and slide rulers.
Favorite moment of the night was the numbers people at Fox explaining to Rove that he's basically innumerate.
Silver's model called every state, including Florida being a "hung jury". To be fair, he may have blown Montana and North Dakota senate races by being too GOP leaning.
Here's live footage of Silver going on Morning Joe:
Not Bad
Looks like I got the Electoral College, but missed the Nevada Senate. And in the House controlling the redistricting means controlling the composition of the House. More on that later perhaps.
Great night for LGBT rights and pot heads. Bad night for rape.
Now it comes down to the House of Representatives. Will they be arsonists again? Or will they try and govern?
I am definitely getting sick. Runny nose, pounding headache.
But that's OK if it's a pre-existing condition now.
UPDATE: So I called NV and ND wrong, as things stand now. If Tester and Heitkamp win, I will have gotten the number of Dems in the Senate right while messing up which states will send them there. My number show a Dem pick-up of five seats in the House, I predicted 5-10 and there are a few seats still to be decided.
I may have actually outpredicted Nate Silver on the Senate races.
UPDATE 2: Tester wins. Suck on it, Silver! Who's a wizard now?
Great night for LGBT rights and pot heads. Bad night for rape.
Now it comes down to the House of Representatives. Will they be arsonists again? Or will they try and govern?
I am definitely getting sick. Runny nose, pounding headache.
But that's OK if it's a pre-existing condition now.
UPDATE: So I called NV and ND wrong, as things stand now. If Tester and Heitkamp win, I will have gotten the number of Dems in the Senate right while messing up which states will send them there. My number show a Dem pick-up of five seats in the House, I predicted 5-10 and there are a few seats still to be decided.
I may have actually outpredicted Nate Silver on the Senate races.
UPDATE 2: Tester wins. Suck on it, Silver! Who's a wizard now?
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Live Blogging 3.0
11:05 John Oliver is punking Wolf Blizter.
11:09 Long way to go, but marriage equality is winning in Maine, Maryland and Minnesota. Yay, equality!
11:14 Obama wins a second term. Suck on that, Mitch McConnell.
11:20 Speaking of which:
Mitch McConnell vows to make Barack Obama a two-term president.
— @dceiver via TweetDeck
11:22 I've got the Electoral College at 290-219 with two states (FL/VA) still to come.
11:29 Killed a bottle of chardonnay. Not sure how that happened. Glad I don't have the 7:30 carpool.
11:33 Nate Silver is a god walking among men, by the way.
11:39 MLB Trade Rumors just popped into my Twitter feed #inappropriate
11:41 Medical marijuana legalized in Massachusetts. All of my students just developed glaucoma.
11:50 My 332 prediction is looking Boss right now. I am awesome.
11:52 Donald Trump wants a revolution. Does that mean I can shoot him now?
11:54 Karl Rove is apparently going Mortimer Duke on Fox. "Turn these machines back on!"
11:56 Chris Matthews schools me in history (tough to take). If Obama wins 50% of the popular vote, he will become the second Democrat since the Civil War to win two elections at 50% of the popular vote. # Democrat Reagan
11:59 Rachel Maddow is making me wish I was a lesbian. She's calling out the GOP for their wholesale rejection of objective fact.
12:09 Marriage Equality and legalized pot winning on the ballot. Times do change don't they.
12:18 Getting sleeeeeeeepy. I assume I will wake up tomorrow and Romney will have won with 206 electoral votes and while Obama will be inaugurated he should probably defer to Mitt Romney's judgment.
12:25 This is great:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/11/for_the_ages_4.php?ref=fpblg
12:31 Rove/Romney still holding out. Despite the fact that if Nevada and Colorado went for Obama (which they did) the election is still over.
Going to bed.
11:09 Long way to go, but marriage equality is winning in Maine, Maryland and Minnesota. Yay, equality!
11:14 Obama wins a second term. Suck on that, Mitch McConnell.
11:20 Speaking of which:
Mitch McConnell vows to make Barack Obama a two-term president.
— @dceiver via TweetDeck
11:22 I've got the Electoral College at 290-219 with two states (FL/VA) still to come.
11:29 Killed a bottle of chardonnay. Not sure how that happened. Glad I don't have the 7:30 carpool.
11:33 Nate Silver is a god walking among men, by the way.
11:39 MLB Trade Rumors just popped into my Twitter feed #inappropriate
11:41 Medical marijuana legalized in Massachusetts. All of my students just developed glaucoma.
11:50 My 332 prediction is looking Boss right now. I am awesome.
11:52 Donald Trump wants a revolution. Does that mean I can shoot him now?
11:54 Karl Rove is apparently going Mortimer Duke on Fox. "Turn these machines back on!"
11:56 Chris Matthews schools me in history (tough to take). If Obama wins 50% of the popular vote, he will become the second Democrat since the Civil War to win two elections at 50% of the popular vote. # Democrat Reagan
11:59 Rachel Maddow is making me wish I was a lesbian. She's calling out the GOP for their wholesale rejection of objective fact.
12:09 Marriage Equality and legalized pot winning on the ballot. Times do change don't they.
12:18 Getting sleeeeeeeepy. I assume I will wake up tomorrow and Romney will have won with 206 electoral votes and while Obama will be inaugurated he should probably defer to Mitt Romney's judgment.
12:25 This is great:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/11/for_the_ages_4.php?ref=fpblg
12:31 Rove/Romney still holding out. Despite the fact that if Nevada and Colorado went for Obama (which they did) the election is still over.
Going to bed.
Live Blogging 2.0
The last live blog was getting crowded.
Chuck Todd is pointing out that Obama is meeting his expectations in the early voting.
I can't help but think that the failure to call PA and OH is to keep viewer and voter interest.
9:15 PA called for Obama. Romney's Hail Mary predictably fell on the 15 yard line to the bemusement of all.
9:20 Stephanie Cutter is like Claire from Modern Family but with political chops. And she, too, is wearing a shit eating grin.
9:22 Twitter is telling me Tammy Baldwin is a Senator. Awesome. First LGBT Senator. Well, first OPENLY LGBT Senator. Let's not forget Larry Craig. Or James Buchanan.
9:25 Now Twitter is telling me it's not Baldwin. Oh, Twitter. My guess is that this is a formality.
9:32 Sherrod Brown wins Ohio. Romney lost Massachusetts. Ryan lost Wisconsin. When did THAT happen?
9:35 Well, it happened in 1972...
9:38 New Hampster to Obama. Romney has lost three of his four home states, and will lose California.
9:41 A lot of the marriage equality measures are doing well. Yea, equality.
MSNBC calls it for Warren, and one of the guys on MSNBC just orgasmed, I think.
9:46 My crawl said Alan Grayson is returning to the House. I didn't know he was running.
9:50 Chuck Todd's goatee just told me that this election is about demographics, especially Hispanics. True, but another story in this election is the validation of LGBT rights. First Baldwin and now let's see how marriage equality does on ballot initiatives.
9:56 People are still voting in Miami-Dade. Obama will win Florida.
10:06 Claire McCaskill sends pro-rape candidates to 0-2.
10:10 Tweet of the night:
10:15 North Carolina not called yet. That's interesting.
10:17 Robert Gibbs gloating over what looks like a surprise win in Florida.
10:19 Joe Walsh, GOP neanderthal in the Illinois House, goes down to defeat. To another Vagina American.
10:21 Rachel Maddow asks Robert Gibbs what he will do tomorrow. Gibbs surprisingly says he will party with five hookers and a crate of Moet et Chandon.
10:30 A half hour away from the Pacific Coast coming in for Obama. At which point, we might finally see them call Ohio for Obama.
10:36 This is getting boring. Call Ohio, people.
Howard Fineman says that the Romney campaign is ready to baptize Romney's campaign retroactively.
10:39 Can we fucking run an election properly? Why are people still waiting in line to vote? That is an absolute disgrace.
10:41 Chuck Todd: Absentee ballot nonsense keeps us with people watching us until 11:00 pm. Hey, Chuck, I'm switching to Jon Stewart at 11.
11:00 Switched to Daily Show, because why not.
Chuck Todd is pointing out that Obama is meeting his expectations in the early voting.
I can't help but think that the failure to call PA and OH is to keep viewer and voter interest.
9:15 PA called for Obama. Romney's Hail Mary predictably fell on the 15 yard line to the bemusement of all.
9:20 Stephanie Cutter is like Claire from Modern Family but with political chops. And she, too, is wearing a shit eating grin.
9:22 Twitter is telling me Tammy Baldwin is a Senator. Awesome. First LGBT Senator. Well, first OPENLY LGBT Senator. Let's not forget Larry Craig. Or James Buchanan.
9:25 Now Twitter is telling me it's not Baldwin. Oh, Twitter. My guess is that this is a formality.
9:32 Sherrod Brown wins Ohio. Romney lost Massachusetts. Ryan lost Wisconsin. When did THAT happen?
9:35 Well, it happened in 1972...
9:38 New Hampster to Obama. Romney has lost three of his four home states, and will lose California.
9:41 A lot of the marriage equality measures are doing well. Yea, equality.
MSNBC calls it for Warren, and one of the guys on MSNBC just orgasmed, I think.
9:46 My crawl said Alan Grayson is returning to the House. I didn't know he was running.
9:50 Chuck Todd's goatee just told me that this election is about demographics, especially Hispanics. True, but another story in this election is the validation of LGBT rights. First Baldwin and now let's see how marriage equality does on ballot initiatives.
9:56 People are still voting in Miami-Dade. Obama will win Florida.
10:06 Claire McCaskill sends pro-rape candidates to 0-2.
10:10 Tweet of the night:
Disappointing night for rape
10:15 North Carolina not called yet. That's interesting.
10:17 Robert Gibbs gloating over what looks like a surprise win in Florida.
10:19 Joe Walsh, GOP neanderthal in the Illinois House, goes down to defeat. To another Vagina American.
10:21 Rachel Maddow asks Robert Gibbs what he will do tomorrow. Gibbs surprisingly says he will party with five hookers and a crate of Moet et Chandon.
10:30 A half hour away from the Pacific Coast coming in for Obama. At which point, we might finally see them call Ohio for Obama.
10:36 This is getting boring. Call Ohio, people.
Howard Fineman says that the Romney campaign is ready to baptize Romney's campaign retroactively.
10:39 Can we fucking run an election properly? Why are people still waiting in line to vote? That is an absolute disgrace.
10:41 Chuck Todd: Absentee ballot nonsense keeps us with people watching us until 11:00 pm. Hey, Chuck, I'm switching to Jon Stewart at 11.
11:00 Switched to Daily Show, because why not.
Live Blogging The Freaking End
7:32 Finally. No more poll parsing or "unskewing". No more focus groups of dumb-assed morons undecided voters. No more caring about how the GM bailout played in Cuyahoga county.
The end of our long national nightmare is over, and we can return to the national nightmare of a nihilistic GOP majority in the House.
Exit polls suck. So says the guy who got elated by exit polls in 2004. Having said that, the important information coming out so far really favors Obama.
For instance:
Alex Castellanos looked defeated on CNN just now when talking about the exit polls. Said they must be wrong. Ouch.
The CBS exit poll had a 73% white electorate. If that's even remotely true, then Obama can stop being the Black Jimmy Carter and start being the Democratic Ronald Reagan.
7:38 Looks like Richard "Rape Babies Are A Gift From God" is going down to defeat.
7:54 Twitter is not helping...
8:14 Chuck Todd says Florida is a must-win for Romney. I concur, sir. My boldest prediction on the electoral college was Obama winning Florida. My guess is we won't know the winner of Florida for a week.
8:18 Twitter comes through for me. Apparently Fox Talkers are ripping in Chris Christie. Meanwhile on MarxistSocialistNBC, there seems to be a barely concealed sense of gloating. Too early yet to say the exit polls are right, but that's what the vibe is.
8:21 Apparently they will crucify Chris Christie for Romney's sins. Of course, they will need a forklift to get him up on that cross.
8:25 Exit polls suck, but they are trending hard to Obama. He's CRUSHING the Hispanic vote. Probably not as big as this, but Fineman was talking about a 60 point margin among some state Hispanic populations.
8:30 CHRIS MURPHY WINS!!!! Outside of an Obama win, this is the best news of the night. Freaking hate Linda McMahon.
8:35 Linda McMahon just spent about $200M over five years to prove that she really knows how to waste $200M.
8:43 I started getting a headache and a bad stomach around 4pm. Currently treating it with chardonnay and Chris Matthews shit-eating grin.
9:00 NH Gov stays Dem, so does PA Senate.
9:06 Elizabeth Warren displaces Scott Brown.
9:08 MSNBC somehow calls House control for the GOP. Not sure how they can do that, but OK.
The end of our long national nightmare is over, and we can return to the national nightmare of a nihilistic GOP majority in the House.
Exit polls suck. So says the guy who got elated by exit polls in 2004. Having said that, the important information coming out so far really favors Obama.
For instance:
Alex Castellanos looked defeated on CNN just now when talking about the exit polls. Said they must be wrong. Ouch.
The CBS exit poll had a 73% white electorate. If that's even remotely true, then Obama can stop being the Black Jimmy Carter and start being the Democratic Ronald Reagan.
7:38 Looks like Richard "Rape Babies Are A Gift From God" is going down to defeat.
7:54 Twitter is not helping...
8:14 Chuck Todd says Florida is a must-win for Romney. I concur, sir. My boldest prediction on the electoral college was Obama winning Florida. My guess is we won't know the winner of Florida for a week.
8:18 Twitter comes through for me. Apparently Fox Talkers are ripping in Chris Christie. Meanwhile on MarxistSocialistNBC, there seems to be a barely concealed sense of gloating. Too early yet to say the exit polls are right, but that's what the vibe is.
8:21 Apparently they will crucify Chris Christie for Romney's sins. Of course, they will need a forklift to get him up on that cross.
8:25 Exit polls suck, but they are trending hard to Obama. He's CRUSHING the Hispanic vote. Probably not as big as this, but Fineman was talking about a 60 point margin among some state Hispanic populations.
8:30 CHRIS MURPHY WINS!!!! Outside of an Obama win, this is the best news of the night. Freaking hate Linda McMahon.
8:35 Linda McMahon just spent about $200M over five years to prove that she really knows how to waste $200M.
8:43 I started getting a headache and a bad stomach around 4pm. Currently treating it with chardonnay and Chris Matthews shit-eating grin.
9:00 NH Gov stays Dem, so does PA Senate.
9:06 Elizabeth Warren displaces Scott Brown.
9:08 MSNBC somehow calls House control for the GOP. Not sure how they can do that, but OK.
Who Will Win???!!!
I know, let's ask the punditry! These learned sages will undoubtedly have all the answers!
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/11/exhaustive-collection-of-pundit-predictions.html
Or perhaps they will be all over the map.
Note, however, the polls. Stupid numbers.
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/11/exhaustive-collection-of-pundit-predictions.html
Or perhaps they will be all over the map.
Note, however, the polls. Stupid numbers.
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