Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, May 7, 2021

Getting to 80%

 Any hope of 95% of Americans getting the vaccine foundered long ago on the shoals of American scientific stupidity. There are some people who legitimately cannot get vaccinated, but that's a small percent of people. How do we get people vaccinated to get to the herd immunity figure of 80%?

Despite their noisiness, it's not anti-vaxxers who are introducing a drag on immunizations. To this point, my wife and I are vaccinated, our youngest son is getting his second Pfizer shot next week and our eldest son had the J&J shot this past week. Our eldest is extraordinarily needle-phobic, and his decision to gut it out and get the shot impressed the hell out of me. He was able to get it at a pharmacy right around the corner, with no wait to get his nerves up. Our youngest is getting it done at a state drive-thru facility that is frankly a pain in the ass. It took about an hour and a half for the whole process, whereas my wife and I and our eldest breezed right through in about a half an hour. 

I'm convinced that "friction" plays a huge role in our increasingly complicated lives. Any little hiccup can delay taking needed action. I hate talking on the phone, especially if there is a phone tree involved, so efforts that require me to "press five" will reduce my incentive to make the call in the first place.

Vaccines have reached the phone tree stage, with the motivated people increasingly being vaccinated. Even my eldest - who has an abiding terror of needles - was motivated to get the shot (but he wasn't getting the two shot regimen under any circumstances). 

There needs to be a plan to reduce the friction points in getting the vaccine, and there needs to be some mandatory vaccinations, including schools and certain jobs. Bring the shots to the workplace. Start bringing them to churches on Sundays. That's got to be the next step.

UPDATE: Matthew Yglesias and I are apparently on the same wavelength, as we wrote about the same thing. One aspect he brought up was mandatory vaccines for the military and police. As he moved in to talking about kids being mandated for school, he noted that medical personnel might find it immoral to mandate vaccinated reluctant and low risk populations like children when the virus is raging through India and they need shots now. As Yglesias notes, this is true, but political impossible. 

He also notes what I have been noting that medical advice is poorly aligned with human psychology and incentivizing vaccine uptake. 

He points to this chart:



This is a great example of terrible advice.

Why do I need a mask to go to a baseball game? Yesterday, I got my haircut and I wore a mask, but...why? I'm vaccinated. There's a slim chance I get a mild case of Covid, true...but...slim...mild. 

We all want to get back to "normal." Yesterday, I also ate inside a restaurant in NYC. I wore my mask until the food arrived and popped it back on when the waiter came over.  All the while, I was thinking: Why? Especially once my sons vaccinations have really set in, I'm not risking anyone. 

I suppose the question of whether a vaccinated person can still spread the disease needs to be answered, but the early evidence seems to be: not really.

If you want to get shots into arms, you need to show WHY getting the shot will make your life better. This chart ain't it.

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