States Matter

 David Ignatius might be too optimistic by half in predicting that the Middle East might be entering a "peace of exhaustion." But we have seen in history long cycles of wars that eventually end when belligerents realize that wars are ultimately destructive. Reaching the Clausewitzian realization that war must have a political end, a war that does not make you safer is a bad war. The Middle East has been fighting for decades a series of wars and proxy wars that have not made them safer. 

(Let us take a moment to remember that the impetus for many of these wars was the disastrous military policy of the Bush Administration. We can all applaud Liz Cheney's principled stand for objective truth without forgetting her and her family's role in the bloodbath that is the modern Middle East.)

As Ignatius blithely breezes over, Israel is an "outlier" in this pivot to peace, but I would argue the collapse of Syria is another one. That conflict is unlikely to end even with the withdrawal of proxy supports. The reason the Emirates and Iran can reach a quiet cease fire is because both are states. The Kurds, the various ethnic groups of Syria and the Palestinians are not states. It is their lack of statehood that leaves them both more vulnerable and more reckless. 

For years, the Turks have signaled that Kurdish statehood is a bright line for them. But then again, recognizing the Armenian genocide was a bright line and we traipsed over that one easily. If Erdogan pokes us again, poke back, and recognize Kurdish independence. My guess is that a Kurdish state would be an better negotiating partner is reining in Kurdish terrorism. A Kurdish state has something to lose.

A similar situation exists for Palestinians. Sure, there is the problem that a Palestinian state would want all of Israel, but having a Palestine gives them something to lose. Right now, they are freed from responsibility to manage and maintain an independent state. The ability of Hamas to provide ANY social services makes them legitimate in a territory that is among the most impoverished and constrained in the world.

Israel has basically abandoned the two-state solution, but our policy has not changed and we have not acknowledged that it has changed. We will not, however, be able to pressure Israel as long as Hamas is launching rockets at population centers. (Not that we say anything about Israel doing the same.)

A weak, small Palestinian state is still something that Palestinians could seek to support and protect. A true government would give Israel and others someone to talk to. 

We have known for years that the only solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the two state solution. Israel has abandoned that. Even as the Gulf States extend feeble feelers to Tehran, and we see the possibility of broader peace, I fear that the situation in Israel is on the verge of a third Intifada.