I Was Wrong

 They are coming for Obergfell and Lawrence. While I'm not 100% sure they will get five votes to overturn marriage equality and the right to private sexual acts, I am absolutely certain they will try. Thomas and Alito voted against it the first time and will again. Roberts voted against Obergfell but wasn't on the Court for Lawrence. If I had to guess, he would be the 5th vote to preserve, but would vote to overturn it if there were already five votes against, similar to his precedent in Dobbs.

I don't think Kavanaugh would overturn Obergfell, but that's really not based on anything. For same vague reasons, I bet Gorsuch would overturn. Comey Barrett? No clue. But I think there are clearly at least three if not four votes to overturn marriage equality.

With abortion, as I mentioned yesterday, there has been egregious moving of the goalposts. Scott Lemieux adds to the literature cataloguing how they are saying basically, "Who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes?" We will see the same arguments made about Obergfell: "Oh, they won't really overturn marriage equality, they will just refer it back to the states." This, of course, means that theocrats in broad swaths of the country will immediately strip a right away from millions of Americans.

I thought that the Assembly of Religious Experts would not touch marriage equality as a fundamental right, because there was no money in it. The fundamental purpose of the Federalist Six is to transfer wealth upwards, or so I thought. Dobbs - and in particular Roberts' joining the majority - has convinced me that I was wrong.