The Senate Is Important

 Conventional wisdom is that Republicans will benefit from a wave election tied to Biden's poor approval numbers. However, we are seeing shades of 2012 play out in the Senate races. Republicans, tied to Trump, have nominated some truly egregious candidates in places like PA, AZ and GA, where Democrats nominated people who have run state-wide races. In NV and NH, reasonably popular incumbents enjoy the advantages of office, too. 

Then there is the politics of abortion, and there is no doubt that this could scramble the "fundamentals" of the race for both the House and Senate. Democrats have difficult holds in GA, AZ and NV, possibly NH and CO, though I don't buy it. If they hold those seats, then they can work to build their majority. Seats in PA and WI seem really winnable, but I wouldn't sleep on NC, OH and FL because of abortion. I would've considered those reaches but OH Republicans nominated JD Vance, who's a total shitbird and Tim Ryan has exactly the same sort of appeal that Sherrod Brown has. Chuck Grassley is a million years old and facing a strong challenger in IA. Even MO could be in play, because the GOP nominated an absolute sewer of a human being in Eric Greitens.

Democrats need to expand their majority by about 3-4 seats for three reasons. The first is get rid of the filibuster. If Democrats lose the House, then this could be irrelevant for the short term, but getting rid of the filibuster is a critical long term need for democratic rule in Congress.

Secondly, in 2024, Democrats will have to defend WV, OH and MT. Those states are trending away from Democrats at warp speed. Winning those would require a second round of Trumpist nominees and a Democratic wave, perhaps engendered by Trump's run for the presidency. There aren't many opportunities to pick up Senate seats in 2024, outside of Texas and Florida and those two states exist primarily to break Democrats' hearts.

Finally, a Democratic Senate majority allows for Biden to appoint judges at his convenience. The long task of undoing the Federalist Society's radical alteration of the nation's courts can't be done in two years. 

Relying on the GOP to nominate horrible people isn't the worst bet in the world, but it's not a sustainable strategy in the long run. Winning 6 year Senate terms when we can is essential.