Back in 2016, there was some conventional wisdom that Brexit was an omen for Trump. Since Brexit was a Russian funded effort to retreat from the liberal global order and Trump was largely advocating the same idea, the shock of Brexit mirrors the shock of Trump's minority victory a few months later.
Now, we see Boris Johnson - one of the main architects of Brexit - immolate is a political dumpster fire of scandals and personal boorishness. Is that another omen?
The fundamental problem with Brexit is that it was a simplistic and chauvinistic response to a complicated but real problem. The benefits of global liberalism can be largely invisible to the average person in the developed world, because it has become the status quo. However, the Covid-induced supply shocks and the resulting inflationary spiral have demonstrated the importance of free trade. The low cost of living has been part of our economic reality for so long, we don't even remember what inflation looks like.
Brexit and Trump harnessed the resentment over stagnating wages that was the relative downside of global free trade, but never really replaced it with anything viable. They demagogued immigrants as a simplistic problem that would fix everything. In the US, at least, we now have a paucity of low wage workers that would usually be filled by immigrants. I can't say what is the case in Britain, but inflation there is very high.
Johnson had nothing to offer but Brexit, just as Trump really had nothing to offer but his "big, beautiful wall." Both men abused and broke the law, though Johnson's crimes pale in comparison to Trump's.
Hopefully, we will see these trends wash up in Budapest and Warsaw or even Ankara, and the retreat from the liberal order will itself recede.
We could use some good news.
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