And What About Russians?

 The Post has a good story about the Russians leaving Russia. While it is difficult for Russians to emigrate to Europe at the moment, they are fleeing to places like Armenia and the Middle East. Russian oligarchs have been offshoring their money since the oligarchs existed. Now, not only are they fleeing, the broader middle class seems to be fleeing, too. It's telling that IT people - people whose livelihoods are tied to global connectivity - are abandoning Russia. 

There's a demagogic argument that we should treat all Russians as culpable for Russia's actions. This is an argument to prevent Russians from fleeing Russia to NY or London. 

The counter argument - aside from the fact that few Russians are able to impact Russian policy - is that depriving Russia of their most educated and global citizenry will weaken it over time. I think that's a strong argument. Russia is in the midst of a demographic crisis. 

This is the population of Russia. The dark crimson are the number of excess women over men in older generations. Men in Russia die in staggering numbers from alcohol and drug abuse related reasons. Now, they are dying in Ukraine and fleeing the country to avoid being drafted. That big bulge in the middle is a period in the '80s when Russians were urged to have a bunch of kids. There is an echo of that from 2011-2018. 

That bulge generation is done having kids. The bust that follows is are the people fleeing the countries, so the population of Russia will shrink even faster.

I suppose there's an argument that forcing unhappy Russians to stay in Russia could prompt a revolution. I doubt it, but it's not impossible. Or perhaps after living abroad these refuseniks from Putin's War could come home and bring expectations that Putin can't meet.

Either way, the future of Russia seems pretty bleak.