I like this take from Florida Woman (not really) Betty Cracker: Ron DeSantis' basic pitch of "Make America Florida" is unlikely to play well outside of the Sunshine/Meth State. While Jon Chait has become a full time Casandra on the DeSantis Beat, arguing that DeSantis should be seen as the GOP Frontrunner and a much stronger threat to democratic norms than the erratic and moronic Trump, the argument that DeSantis' schtick will only play with the GOP base is a strong one.
In fact, Chait somewhat elides this fact in the linked piece above. DeSantis has come out against aiding Ukraine, a position that is going to become gospel among the MAGA Right. While there has been some softening of support for Ukraine, that has been mostly a product of partisan division. (This write-up buries the lead that it's the collapse of Republican support that has seen support for Ukraine soften across the board.) As the GOP becomes more and more aligned with Vladimir Putin, I don't think that will play to their electoral advantage.
Florida is synonymous with lunacy. While the state is trending redder and redder, some of that is the generational sorting of retiring Boomers bringing their baggage with them. The weird shibboleths of American conservatism are unintelligible to most Americans. Democrats could be hurt if inflation stays high or the Federal Reserve tips us into recession, but no one outside the Fox-o-sphere gives a shit about DeSantis' war on AP African American Studies.
They might, however, care about his efforts to track the menstrual periods of high school athletes.
Then there is the fact that DeSantis is an whiny unctuous little troll who no one likes. "Make America Florida" is bad, but "Only A Slightly Worse Person Than Ted Cruz" isn't much better.
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