Some odd events in eastern Ukraine. Russia has been conducting a meatgrinder campaign around Kremina and Bahkmut. But most knowledgeable analysis - including that within Russia - suggests that Russia is waging this attritive combat because they haven't the capability to do maneuver warfare.
This form of sacrificing conscripts and convicts to make incremental gains could work if Ukraine becomes obsessed with holding on to a place like Bahkmut. Ukraine is presumably preparing for a spring offensive with their new tanks. They will need enough troops to make that happen. Russia has the clear advantage in manpower - if not morale. That could change if they kill enough of their own troops, or we see wide scale mutinies.
It sure seems like Russia is making a bad decision, and we shouldn't assume that they are out of wishful thinking.
However, their decision-making has been shit all year anyway.
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