Ideologues

 There is a theory called horseshoe theory that posits that if you go far enough out to the right or left on the political spectrum it bends back in on itself. This is the "Red-Brown" alliance that links "tankies" (unreconstructed Stalinists) with Trumpists. This is how some on the far left can look at Trump's populism and see a legitimate attack on wealth, which is of course bullshit. The rhetorical nods towards egalitarianism are simply an attack on cultural elites, not on wealth and plutocracu.

It seems to me that the root of this phenomenon is a predilection for seeing the world through a lens of abstract ideas. Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist-Maoist economics does not work. Period. We ran an experiment on this and we got real data. Planned economies don't work and collectivized agriculture is one of the worst ideas humans have ever conceived. Yet there are still people out there who will claim that we just didn't communist hard enough. 

In other words, if you are "imprisoned by your priors", if you are devoted to an idea, then you simply don't care what the evidence actually says.

This is obviously true of Trumpists and rightists in America right now. We can see this pretty clearly in the response to Trump's multiple indictments. There is a mountain of evidence, including Trump's own words and actions, that essentially prove Trump's guilt. "Find me the votes." "Check out these top secret files I shouldn't have." Instead of looking at actual evidence, Trump is innocent because...well, you have to believe some pretty nefarious shit about anyone who is not a Trumpist/Republican. In an almost comical touch, you get the Anti-Anti-Trumpers whose basic position is "Sure, Trump is an authoritarian, a bigot and a crook, but at least he's not a Democrat."

The ironclad belief that someone like Biden (Biden?!) is a communist is therefore impervious to evidence that contradicts that belief. I have been saying since 2020 that "Defund the Police" is a terrible slogan or strategy, and whatever few impulses towards police reform we have seen, few of them have been outright "Defunding". Still, ask a Republican and Biden wants to get rid of the police, despite increasing budgetary aid for police departments.

Which brings me to an especially fraught topic: human and especially child trafficking. This is, of course, the central tenet of QAnon: that the cultural elites who are making you look at same sex couples in your Volkswagen ads are also trafficking in children to harness some sort of chemical from kids brains. (In an aside, my one almost-paid effort as a screenwriter was to write a sci-fi horror film about rich people kidnapping kids and stealing the poor kids "intelligence" by doing something to their brains...it was a shitty, unworkable idea, but that was 1994.)

The third biggest movie of the summer is Sound of Freedom, which is about Tim Ballard's quest to stop child trafficking and stars QAnon nutter Jim Cavaziel as Ballard. 

The reason these allegations are so powerful among the overlapping circle of Trumpers and QAnon is that it's almost impossible to have a reasoned, evidence-based discussion on child and human trafficking. Any effort to introduce perspective on how much trafficking actually takes place and how lunatic the idea of harvesting adrenachrome is basically demonstrates that you endorse the trafficking of children.

Now, it should come as absolutely no surprise that one of the people who helped get Sound of Freedom made is under investigation for, you guessed it, child kidnapping. Sure, this is the millionth example of "every allegation is a confession" but it's also the weird effect of people who are obsessed with the exploitation of children are spending a lot of time thinking about the exploitation of children to begin with. Efforts to prosecute this individual will be seen by lots of people as the "deep state" of pedophiles trying to silence a brave truth teller - a repeat of the narrative on the right about Trump's numerous indictments.

There is also a lot of evidence that Ballard himself is basically a self-aggrandizing con artist who has done very little actual work, and mostly claims credit for the work of others. Meanwhile, if you are legitimately concerned about the sexual exploitation of children, that overwhelming evidence points to religious figures - especially in the more patriarchal denominations. It's not just the Catholic Church, as evangelical youth pastors seem to be another target rich environment for pedophiles.

What do we actually know about trafficking? Here's the government website on the issue (which is of course suspect among QAnon-ers):

Due to the “hidden” nature of trafficking activities, gathering statistics on the magnitude of the problem is a complex and difficult task. The following statistics are the most accurate available, given these complexities, but may represent an underestimation of trafficking on a global and national scale.

Each year, an estimated 600,000 to 800,000 men, women, and children are trafficked across international borders (some international and non-governmental organizations place the number far higher), and the trade is growing. (U.S. Department of State. 2004. Trafficking in Persons Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State.)

Of the 600,000-800,000 people trafficked across international borders each year, 70 percent are female and 50 percent are children. The majority of these victims are forced into the commercial sex trade. (Ibid.)

Each year, an estimated 14,500 to 17,500 foreign nationals are trafficked into the United States. The number of U.S. citizens trafficked within the country each year is even higher, with an estimated 200,000 American children at risk for trafficking into the sex industry. (U.S. Department of Justice. 2004. Report to Congress from Attorney General John Ashcroft on U.S. Government Efforts to Combat Trafficking in Persons in Fiscal Year 2003. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Justice.)

The largest number of people trafficked into the United States come from East Asia and the Pacific (5,000 to 7,000 victims). The next highest numbers come from Latin America and from Europe and Eurasia, with between 3,500 and 5,500 victims from each. (U.S. Departments of Justice, Health & Human Services, State, Labor, Homeland Security, Agriculture, and the U.S. Agency for International Development. 2004. Assessment of U.S. Government Activities to Combat Trafficking in Persons. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Justice.)

Globally, we are in fact dealing with an unknowable number of women and children trafficked into forced sex work. I was struck by the internal number (in bold), which struck me as being really large. (These numbers are from 2005, too.) This HHS post from last year suggests a much smaller number, as they have been able to discover 2,600 cases in the previous year. Now, let's say they only find out about a quarter of the cases. That's about 10,000 cases of child trafficking, which is a pretty big difference from 200,000 internal cases.

However, if I were to say, "There's no way we are seeing 200,000 cases of internal child trafficking a year" then I'm a pedophile, or at least an enabler. But understanding the scope of the problem is the first step in solving it. A single case of human trafficking is too many. The nature of the crime is private and hidden, so it will be both hard to find and hard to track progress. 

In this case, we have a doubled problem. We have a group of people who are naturally resistant to evidence and a crime that resists accurate quantification and evidence. As a result it's perfect for Trumpists who can argue - amazingly! - that Democrats were all going to Epstein's island, when we know Trump took numerous trips there and is on the record lusting after young and very young women. We can have pious Christians outraged over Hunter Biden's cavorting with prostitutes (which is bad, BTW) while ignoring the multiple of sexual predators in the clergy.

There are few worse things to be in the world than a pedophile. (One of the more disturbing things to routinely encounter when reading about the past is the common practice of marriages of teenagers and younger to middle aged men.) Using the term pedophile as an all-purpose political weapon is also gross. To me, the danger of Sound of Freedom is that it elevates someone like Ballard to heroic status by giving him credit for work he hasn't done. Yet, calling the film out for that makes you - you guessed it - a pedophile.

Serious problems deserve serious solutions. We live in a time when empiricism is on the ropes. The QAnon/Trumpist overlap is a good example of the effects of believing something and then finding the evidence to justify what you already believe. This extends throughout the horseshoe dynamic. "Trump is innocent and elite Democrats are pedophiles" becomes the proof itself and evidence that contradicts this is ignored. 

I'm not sure democracy can survive if this becomes common place.