Indictment Day III

 It's depressing seeing that you can't find any MAGAts rethinking their support for Trump in the light of all these indictments, as it's pretty clear that the indictment actually help him among Cult 45. The basic "defense" of Trump seems to fall into these baskets.

- They are attacking Trump's First Amendment rights. This is, of course, bullshit. The First Amendment doesn't cover crimes. The basic idea that you can plot to overthrow the Constitution and that's "protected speech" is ridiculous.
- The Biden Administration has weaponized the Department of Justice. This falls into the "every accusation is a confession" idea that defined the Trump Administration's attempt to punish political enemies via the Justice Department. Again, this shows stunning lack of understanding (willful or ignorant) of how indictments work. The DOJ didn't indict Trump, a Grand Jury did. 

One of the hallmarks of Trump's failed autogolpe has been the remarkable run of failures in court. The reason, of course, is that in court you can't just allege things and make shit up. You have to present evidence. There was no evidence that the election was stolen and in fact most examples of marginal voter fraud was committed by MAGAts. Jack Smith has been able to bring multiple indictments because there is a wealth of evidence that Trump committed both sets of crimes. 

What has been interesting is how Indictment Day I was possibly, kinda weak tea. Trump has lied and defrauded people for years and this is a little bit like getting Al Capone on tax evasion, but Capone did evade taxes. Indictment Day II upped the ante, as this was about clear criminality and willful obstruction of justice. Indictment Day III involves a plot to overthrow the government of the United States. When Indictment Day IV arrives, it will basically be a remake of Indictment Day III.

Josh Marshall notes something important about the series of indictments and potential trials in the context of the 2024 election. He points out that there are two narratives that Trump sells to his cultists: The swaggering tough guy who can save America and since the indictments dropped the martyr of real America being persecuted by the Deep State. The spectacle of being a defendant is a spectacle of being dominated. You can only be so defiant. What happens when Trump makes some racist remark about the Judge in DC? What happens when he makes an overt threat against Alvin Bragg? He could be tossed in jail for contempt. That's powerless. It will feed the martyr narratives, but it will unmask what is true of all bullies: they are basically cowards.

Trump's play will be to delay these trials until after the election for that reason. Given what Judge Chutkin has said about January 6th, I don't see her deferring to Judge Cannon in Florida. If that happens and he's on trial in the spring of 2024, he's going to get flopsweat desperate and when he does so, he inflicts a lot of damage on himself.

I don't think that he WILL go in trial before the election, but if he does, I don't think it's going to go well for him politically. Eugene Debs ran for president from jail, but that's not usually considering a winning tactic. I do think that Dobbs remains the factor in this election that could most hurt Republicans. If the economy continues to improve, that should help Biden and Democrats, too. Also, the demographics of relying on an aging and, yes, dying base of voters won't help Trump either.

Still, these indictments simultaneously help Trump cement his hold on the nomination and hurt his chances of actually winning in November.