Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

 Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy that applies when someone mistakes the result for the cause. An obvious example would be thinking that smoky air causes wildfires. Of course, not even stupid people believe that. but stupid people do believe that the Department of Justice, the Attorney General of New York and shortly the Attorney General of Georgia have all decided to indict Donald Trump in order to make sure that he is the Republican nominee. Since Trump's polling numbers have surged since the indictments and Ron DeSantis has collapsed into pudding, clearly this was the Democrat's plan all along.

Jon Chait dissects the many ways that what he accurately calls anti-anti-Trump conservatives have coalesced around this narrative. This nefarious plot absolves them of the need to take actions that might prevent a career criminal and conman from becoming the nominee of their party again. "If it weren't for those meddlesome kids!"

One aspect of this that Chait doesn't discuss, but that I've been thinking about a lot is the power of motivated reasoning. We know about Cleek's Law, which remains the best explanation of conservative politics since at least Obama and likely Clinton. Because anything Democrats want Republicans must oppose, that puts them in a passive, reactive stance. It also explains why they have no policies of their own, except to oppose and overturn Democratic or liberal ones.

Once you're in that headspace, anything can be justified to further your goals. Is Donald Trump a repeat criminal? Of course. He's evaded taxes, sexually assaulted women, defrauded people and violated civil rights laws before he even came down the escalator. Since then, he's added a fucking coup to his resume. 

But since it's Democrats who are the real villains, Trump must be part of their nefarious plan. Why? Because Democrats won in 2018, 2020 and did really well in 2022. 

Is it because the GOP is a bunch of God bothering fascists who support Trump even after January 6th and a party that revels in Dobbs? Is it because they offer no positive solutions to America's problems? Is it because they hump guns and deny climate change? Impossible!  I'll turn it over to The Simpsons here: