Josh Marshall explains why the dismal news that Trump and Biden are tied in the polls isn't really that dismal. Buried at the end is the thing I keep coming back to: most two terms presidents are tied or losing in the polls at this point. Reagan was, Clinton was, Obama was. Incumbents usually win, but at this point, people are kinda grumbling about how things aren't perfect.
He also notes that Biden has room to grow and the only real threat is a third party spoiler campaign. He does not mention the fact that Trump might be in jail by election day or the Dobbs fallout. Ultimately, Biden will win re-election if the young voters who swarmed to the polls for him in 2020 to get rid of Trump, return to get rid of Dobbs.
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