Jon Chait analyzes Trump's soft-peddling of abortion bans, Some of this is because Trump does have one talent, and that's discerning subrosa feelings in the public. He does get certain vibes and reflects them back to his audience, and the vibes on Dobbs are pretty bad for the GOP, and one reason why I simply do not believe the current polling showing a dead heat between Trump and Biden. With DeSantis taking an even more extreme (albeit hidden) position on abortion bans, Trump can claim to be more moderate on the issue. As someone who has no doubt paid for multiple abortions, it's understandable that he might moderate his position.
There are a bunch of other observations that give credit to Trump for strategically pivoting to the center, but I think that gives him too much credit. He's fundamentally impulsive based on his ample gut and his gut says Dobbs is unpopular. Of course, he has to say that the reason Republicans are underperforming is Dobbs and not his seditious insurrection.
One thing that would worry me is that you can really feel how much the national press wants a new story. They are stuck with Biden v Trump again, so they are floating all sorts of nonsense about Biden or Harris stepping down (not so much about Trump stepping aside in the face of 91 indictments, because lulz). They would love to talk about how Trump is actually a moderate on abortion rights, when he's not. The reason Dobbs happened was because of Trump and McConnell. He may regret it now, but this is his baby (pun intended).
What's more, Trump is fundamentally dishonest and lacks convictions beyond the idea that Trump is the best and everyone loves him but the haters. If he does get re-elected, he will absolutely sign any abortion bans that come his way. And he could do so, because if he gets re-elected, the Republicans will set about doing to America what they have done to Wisconsin: creating gerrymanders and electoral rules that thwart popular will.
One thing that will almost certainly not happen is the press holding him accountable for Dobbs. They crave a new story, and this qualifies.
Democrats cannot passively assume that independent women will vote for them because of Dobbs; they had to remind them constantly to do so. They have to hang this millstone around the GOP's neck in every election in every state.
UPDATE: Josh Marshall makes the same point: you cannot rely on the media to report accurately on this.
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