Efforts to bar Trump from the ballot because he led an insurrection are certainly interesting. Of course, if Senate Republicans hadn't been such pants-wetting cowards in January 2021, we could have removed him from office via impeachment, which bars him from holding office ever again. Instead, we now have Federalist society scholars - who don't have to face the rage of the Trumpenproletariat - arguing that he should be barred from office because of the 14th Amendment. To wit:
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may, by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
There are two hurdles.
The first is that Trump has not been found guilty of insurrection. That's why the trial date has to happen before the convention. Once he's found guilty, it would seem to be pretty straightforward. You can run from jail - Eugene V. Debs did in 1920 - but not if you are an insurrectionist.
If the trial is somehow delayed - and Trump will do everything he can to delay it - then the question falls between the states and the courts. Could Michigan pass a law banning him from the ballot? Could the Democratic Secretaries of State in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona bar him from the ballot? If they do, then it would seem that action by the Supreme Court would be required. The Justices don't have to face GOP voters, and they are probably as done with him as many other Republican elites are.
It's a fascinating thought-exercise at this point, but the side question is this: Would banning Trump from the ballot help or hurt Republican efforts to unseat Biden?
On the one hand, I really do think that Trump is toxic with enough with independents that a choice between Trump and Biden will land on Biden. He should win all the states he won in 2020, plus maybe North Carolina. Maybe Texas and Florida come into play.
On the other hand, Trump's supporters are cultists. They are not going to transfer their devotion to a pretender. In 2012, Karl Rove lamented the "missing white voters" in the Midwest. Trump found them, but can their affection be rerouted to another candidate? I have my doubts.
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