The NY Times poll has been a significant drag on Biden's polling numbers among credible pollsters. You see people like Jon Chait talking about how Biden's defeat might be seen as pre-ordained, because of inflation.
So, I guess a quick Google search is in order to see where Obama stood in 2012. Gallup had him losing the week before the election. Here's the Harvard poll, but it's a year out from the election.
Back in 2012, the CBS/Times poll had Romney up 3 at roughly this point in the race. The Economist had Romney up 4. If you look at the polling it tended to narrow - especially if you throw out the Rasmussen polling, and you should always throw out the Rasmussen polling.
Throughout the fall, the race remained pretty close, though again Rasmussen threw off the averages. Very few polls ever had Obama over 50%.
He won with 51.1%.
Now, Biden is not Obama: a supremely charismatic figure. However, Trump is not Romney. Whatever you think of Romney, he's not facing the sort of legal and ethical headwinds that Trump is facing. What is true is that Obama faced issues because the tail of the 2008 financial crisis was still anchoring his support. Biden's main problem is that inflation from the 2020-22 pandemic period (and invasion of Ukraine) has not fully abated.
Will it make a difference to people worried about inflation that every single policy Trump wants to implement would make it worse? I think it might. I'm hopeful. I'm also heartened by the fact that Biden has a vigorous ground game up and running and Trump is looting his campaign funds and the RNC coffers to pay his legal bills.
It would be super great if inflation died out, but I still think people will balk at voting for the insurrection supporting, tax avoiding rapist or the guy with brain worms and mercury poisoning.
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