The interesting dynamic we are seeing is that Biden is doing MUCH better among Likely Voters than Registered Voters. This is the inverse of voting during the '90s and '00s as Democrats tended to do better with the at-large voting population but struggled to get those voters to the polls.
Some of this is the demographic shift in the Democratic Party towards more college educated voters. That is going to help them win and hold the suburbs and it's a direct outcome of Trump's malignant populism.
One thing that struck a number of people with the Times poll yesterday was the complete collapse of support for Biden among young, Black and Latin voters. Now, maybe there really is a historic collapse in those populations (that is not really being measured in other polls). But when I think about those Registered/Likely screens and about the general theme of "polling is broken", I have to wonder who exactly is picking up the phone in those demographics?
Continue to keep an eye on both the Likely Voter numbers and Biden's performance among those demographics that Democrats traditionally do well with.
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