The Remaining Guardrails

 As Trump's popularity declines, he lashes out more and more. Some of this is the stink coming off the Epstein mess, but the "Wrong Track" polling is also grim. For many center and left analysts, looking at how Trump has "governed" since he regained power, this is hardly a surprise. Tariffs, his budget, his deportations...these are all really unpopular. Also, he's just an asshole.

At the moment there are few guardrails to constrain him, but not none. The Courts have been at least somewhat reluctant to go along with his most egregious acts. The Supreme Court, however, has been less a restraint on him than many of us had hoped, even if we knew that hope was slim.

There are two remaining ways to bring this country back from the brink. When it comes to his tariff policies, it's worth noting that they are blatantly illegal. He simply doesn't have the power to do what he has been doing. What's more, the "agreements" he says he has are not really agreements. Going further, why should any country believe that Trump will honor the "deals" he makes, since he won't honor the existing treaty obligations? The supine Republican Congress won't take their constitutional powers back, so it's left to the Courts.

We haven't seen the Courts rein him in, but - and I concede I may be wishcasting here - these tariffs are not in the interest of American industry, especially the lunatic tariffs on raw materials like aluminum and steel. Yes, the red letter of the law is against Trump and the Supreme Court doesn't care about that, but this may be a case where the pro-plutocrat impulses of the Court overrule their fealty to the Mad King.

More troublesome is the gerrymandering issue. Trump is urging Texas to further gerrymander their state to deprive Democrats of perhaps five seats. California has threatened to retaliate. New York and Illinois are considering their options, while Florida does the same.

Gerrymandering is incredibly corrosive to our politics. Perhaps more corrosive than Trump himself, who will die in the next decade. Gerrymandering makes representatives more extreme, in order to placate their base and avoid a primary challenge. It deprives people of democratic choice in what is supposed to be the People's House. 

At the moment, we are relying on both the restraint of Texas lawmakers - yikes - in the face of retaliation. If they decide to go through with this, then we come back to the courts. I don't have much faith that the Roberts Court will uphold the shattered remains of the Voting Rights Act, but...maybe?

Maybe, again wishcasting, if Texas and other states go through with additional gerrymandering, that will create a backlash that swamps even R+10 districts. We are seeing something like that in special elections. 

Krugman has a long post about tariffs and their impact on GDP and it will actually be minimal (the costs come elsewhere besides GDP). Still, add that to deportations and the chaotic policy whims of the Mad King (like firing the head of BLS) and there are no significant headwinds. Any shock like a crypto crash could tip the country into a bad spiral. If that happens, R+15 districts might not be safe.

Still, the implications of a Supreme Court that refuses to enforce the actual law and constitution and a Republican Party hellbent on depriving voters of actual choice does not bode well for the future of American democracy, which - bruised and battered as it may be - is still clinging to life.