Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Showing posts with label The Supremes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Supremes. Show all posts

Friday, February 20, 2026

SCOTUS Kills The Tariffs


 A transparently easy decision, but still three fucking idiots want to make Trump king.

For the moment, three Republican judges still put fealty to Wall Street over fealty to Pennsylvania Avenue.

Yay?

UPDATE: I do find it grimly hilarious that the two most wretched jurists overly the last century were appointed - not by Trump - but by Bush 41 and Bush 43.

UPDATE II: Krugman makes an astute point: while Trump has now just blasted out a 10% tariff under "Section 122", it's global and expires in 150 days, unless Congress approves it. So, many have noted that this puts Congressional Republicans in a bind right before the midterms.

What Krugman notes is that Trump's entire foreign policy was using these bullshit "emergencies" to declare trade wars unless the other side backed down. It was also how he has been shaking down business leaders, by carving out exemptions for them. All of that is no longer available to him.

Saturday, January 24, 2026

Can The Supremes Actually Apply The Text?

 Yglesias summarizes the Trump Administration's war on birthright citizenship. By just about any standard - the text of the XIVth amendment, the existing precedents, basic bureaucratic paperwork, federalism and the issuing of birth certificates - this should be an open and shut case. There is no defensible position to revoke the plain text of the XIVth, besides racist beliefs in the status of non-white people. 

Ideally, this could be an opportunity to the Sycophantic Six to show that they can actually apply the law as it was intended, rather than giving Trump whatever he wants. They seem to be leaning that way when it comes to the Federal Reserve's independence; they could do the same here.

The Court is so degraded right now, that it is hard to take anything for granted. I do wonder if things like yesterday's protests in Minneapolis could signal to the Court just how fragile their legitimacy is right now. The foundations of Constitutional governance are quaking under our feet right now, and the question is whether the Sycophantic Six will be pallbearers or paladins. 

Tuesday, January 13, 2026

The Fed Is The Bright Red Line

 Trump's spurious prosecution of Jerome Powell is both deeply chilling and unlikely to work. The Federal Reserve was specifically constructed to avoid political pressure. They have to make the hard choices that presidents and congressional members cannot. Paul Volcker purposefully forced the country into a brutal recession from 1979-1983 in order to kill the inflation that had curdled the American economy. Powell has skillfully navigated the post-Covid inflationary period to quell inflation without forcing us into a deflationary recession.

As Krugman notes, this is part of Trump's overall assault on anyone with the temerity to not kiss his ass. He is so ensconced in sycophants that he cannot be contradicted, cannot be defied, and Powell wouldn't cut interest rates. (By the way, why now? Why launch a prosecution now? I have to wonder if they are seeing some flashing red lights on the economy and are that desperate for a rate cut.)

Last year, the Sycophantic Six on the SCOTUS basically allowed the president to fire anyone at any agency, even if it had been set up to be beyond the reach of presidential firings. They specifically said that this does not apply to the Federal Reserve. The reason is that the Court ultimately works for the Money. Yeah, they may secretly thrill to Trump's attacks on Democrats or minorities, but their real purpose was to overturn Chevron and gut the regulatory state. 

The broadest trends in macroeconomics are fuzzy at the moment. The tariffs have not really been universal and the effects have not been as profound as the published rates. There is still some hope that the Court will overturn them, for the same reason that they might protect Powell. The economy is soft, but not receding, and that softness has largely come from Trump's erratic policy making. No one knows what he might do with tariffs or punishing a specific industry from one day to the next. No one wants to go into Venezuela because he might simply walk away from it and stare out the window at his construction project in the old East Wing. 

The economy is frozen in uncertainty, even as Trump guts regulatory oversight and funnels money to the rich. Attacking the Federal Reserves' independence is unlikely to sooth markets and allay the concerns of business.

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Hopeful

 Richardson flags something I missed. SCOTUS ruled that Trump could not deploy the National Guard without satisfying the stringent requirements of the Posse Comitatus Act. Basically, unless Congress authorizes martial law, the President may not nationalize the National Guard for law enforcement purposes. What Richardson flagged was Brett "I Like Beet" Kavanaugh wrote in a footnote.

Earlies, Kavanaugh had written a decision allowing people to be stopped for the probable cause of their ethnicity. Guilty on account of being Brown. These became known as "Kavanaugh Stops" which must have stung a bit, because the new footnote reads as follows.

The Fourth Amendment requires that immigration stops must be based on reasonable suspicion of illegal presence, stops must be brief, arrests must be based on probable cause, and officers must not employ excessive force. Moreover, the officers must not make interior immigration stops or arrests based on race or ethnicity.”

We have work to do when it comes to restoring meaningful democracy in this country and for the most part SCOTUS - with its 6-3 Republican majority - stands in the way of that. 

However, Kavanaugh clearly amended his previous position either because he felt he was misinterpreted or because the phrase "Kavanaugh Stops" stung. 

You can't shame MAGA. Their shamelessness is their super power. But maybe you can shame some of the Republicans that are otherwise enabling this shitshow.

Friday, October 17, 2025

Competitive Authoritarianism

 Steady State, a group of former US intelligence and defense officials, has stated that America is moving towards "competitive authoritarianism." In this system, there are elections, but important democratic checks don't exist and power resides almost exclusively in the Executive. Hungary and Türkiye are prime examples of this. 

Perhaps the most important paragraph:

Among the key indicators of democratic decline identified in the report: the expansion of executive power through unilateral decrees and emergency authorities; the politicization of the civil service and federal law enforcement; attempts to erode judicial independence through strategic appointments and “noncompliance” with court rulings or investigations; a weakened and increasingly ineffective Congress; partisan manipulation of electoral systems and administration; and the deliberate undermining of civil society, the press and public trust.

Tell me what's inaccurate about that statement. 

For those of us who care about democracy and America, we have all looked towards the 2026 midterms as the critical moment for discovering (as opposed to deciding) whether of not we still live in a democracy. If elections return a Democratic Congress, then we can still claim to be a democracy. If voters prefer a Democratic Congress, but gerrymandering and the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act returns a Republican House, I can't help but wonder if that's just the end of the line for "America."

In her "Letter" today, Richardson talks about the sentiments of the Revolutionary generation regarding where true power should lie, and they placed it, very consciously, in the Legislative branch. Republicans in Congress have abandoned legislative prerogatives to placate the dictator in the White House. The Supreme Court - not the lower courts - have abandoned all principles to rule randomly in favor of Trump whenever possible. The American "Revolution" is more accurately understood as a secession movement within an imperial system that denied them representative government.

In the decade before the Civil War, Daniel Webster argued that - unlike in 1776 - secession made no geographic sense. The Atlantic separated the colonies from Britain, but as Webster put it, the mountains and rivers all run the wrong direction. Indeed, looking at the electoral map from 2020, trying to map out a country where Biden won more than 50% of the vote creates a very odd map.

From Maine to Virginia would be part of the new country, but we would have to merge with Canada, because Minnesota and Illinois would want in. What to do with the former Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is a big conundrum. Colorado and New Mexico are Blue, but Arizona is Purple, and that's the bridge to the Pacific Coast.

Drawing those lines would be hard, but I'm not sure why we should persist in the fiction of living in an America that is no longer recognizably American. We do however need to be having these discussions. The SCOTUS and Congressional Republicans cannot think there are no consequences to abandoning democracy.

Thursday, October 16, 2025

It's Not Just Trump

 As Richardson explains, the Supreme Court - or rather the Republican judges on the Supreme Court - seems about to basically rule the Voting Rights Act unconstitutional. Their reason? Basically, the VRA allows for Democrats to win seats in the House from majority Black districts. The science of gerrymandering has become so accurate that Republicans can likely redistrict away most Democratic seats in the South.

We need to keep this in mind, as we watch the destruction of American democracy, that as bad as Trump is, the entire GOP is guilty. The supposedly non-partisan Justices  - including Mr. Balls-And-Strikes himself, John Roberts - are making decisions based solely on what serves the immediate needs of the GOP.

Now, there is the possibility that - if the economy craters or Trump becomes even less popular - Democrats overwhelm these new efforts to gerrymander them out of power. Diluting Democratic districts can often mean reducing the margins of GOP-leaning districts. However, I'm guessing we are going to see some ridiculous gerrymanders if they go ahead with this plan.

Trump is old and looks to be in terrible physical and mental condition. I'm not THAT worried about him trying to violate the Constitution and run again in 2028. The problem is that he has demonstrated the political expediency of destroying our shared democratic values. The VRA extensions were routinely passed unanimously and signed by Republican presidents. 

We are already seeing the craven capitulation of the Republicans in Congress to Trump. But is it capitulation if they already agree with him? Trump has no power over the judges of the Supreme Court, but they are going to willingly degrade American democracy - not because they love Trump, but because his authoritarianism appeals to them. 

Much of Trump's fascism is aesthetic and performative. The brutality of an ICE raid is all captured for videos for Fox. What the SCOTUS is doing is deeply structural, and therefore potentially almost permanent.

Friday, September 19, 2025

On Bullshit And Sycophancy

 Trump has always been a bullshitter. What that means to refresh your memory is that Trump does not care what the truth is. A liar does and actively does the opposite, whereas a bullshitter is really just seeing what he can get away with. 

It seems every day we see Trump saying more and more things divorced from any sense of reality. He said he was going to bring down prescription drug prices 1000%. If you understand math, I'll give you a moment to weep quietly. He says that gas is $2 a gallon. He says that America has taken in trillions in tariff duties. 

On the one hand, we can chalk this up to him being a bullshitter and simply not caring. This, however, feels inadequate to the moment. He's WAY beyond bullshit here. This is delusional stuff. If I had to guess we have his habitual bullshitting and we have the fact that no one will call him on anything. If there is a salient fact that distinguishes Trump 2.0 from Trump 1.0, it is the absence of anyone pushing back on his bullshit.

This gives us the Mad King vibe we see in his pronouncements. This gibbering nonsense, the frequent explosions of word salad, all of this is the actions of a not terribly bright man who is slipping into senescence but who has no one to tell him that he's full of shit. You think Melania will? Anyone of the toadies who congregate around him? 

The problem is that it's not only his rhetoric that's nuts. Is anyone willing to tell him the cost of the Hyundai raid? Is anyone going to point out the lunacy of RFK Jr's purge of actual health experts? We know he doesn't give a shit about civil rights and liberties, but will anyone tell him that what's used against Jimmy Kimmel can be used against conservatives?

Republican congressfolks won't do it. The media won't do it. I have my doubts about the courts, once it gets to the Supreme Court. 

It will have to be us.

Sunday, August 3, 2025

The Remaining Guardrails

 As Trump's popularity declines, he lashes out more and more. Some of this is the stink coming off the Epstein mess, but the "Wrong Track" polling is also grim. For many center and left analysts, looking at how Trump has "governed" since he regained power, this is hardly a surprise. Tariffs, his budget, his deportations...these are all really unpopular. Also, he's just an asshole.

At the moment there are few guardrails to constrain him, but not none. The Courts have been at least somewhat reluctant to go along with his most egregious acts. The Supreme Court, however, has been less a restraint on him than many of us had hoped, even if we knew that hope was slim.

There are two remaining ways to bring this country back from the brink. When it comes to his tariff policies, it's worth noting that they are blatantly illegal. He simply doesn't have the power to do what he has been doing. What's more, the "agreements" he says he has are not really agreements. Going further, why should any country believe that Trump will honor the "deals" he makes, since he won't honor the existing treaty obligations? The supine Republican Congress won't take their constitutional powers back, so it's left to the Courts.

We haven't seen the Courts rein him in, but - and I concede I may be wishcasting here - these tariffs are not in the interest of American industry, especially the lunatic tariffs on raw materials like aluminum and steel. Yes, the red letter of the law is against Trump and the Supreme Court doesn't care about that, but this may be a case where the pro-plutocrat impulses of the Court overrule their fealty to the Mad King.

More troublesome is the gerrymandering issue. Trump is urging Texas to further gerrymander their state to deprive Democrats of perhaps five seats. California has threatened to retaliate. New York and Illinois are considering their options, while Florida does the same.

Gerrymandering is incredibly corrosive to our politics. Perhaps more corrosive than Trump himself, who will die in the next decade. Gerrymandering makes representatives more extreme, in order to placate their base and avoid a primary challenge. It deprives people of democratic choice in what is supposed to be the People's House. 

At the moment, we are relying on both the restraint of Texas lawmakers - yikes - in the face of retaliation. If they decide to go through with this, then we come back to the courts. I don't have much faith that the Roberts Court will uphold the shattered remains of the Voting Rights Act, but...maybe?

Maybe, again wishcasting, if Texas and other states go through with additional gerrymandering, that will create a backlash that swamps even R+10 districts. We are seeing something like that in special elections. 

Krugman has a long post about tariffs and their impact on GDP and it will actually be minimal (the costs come elsewhere besides GDP). Still, add that to deportations and the chaotic policy whims of the Mad King (like firing the head of BLS) and there are no significant headwinds. Any shock like a crypto crash could tip the country into a bad spiral. If that happens, R+15 districts might not be safe.

Still, the implications of a Supreme Court that refuses to enforce the actual law and constitution and a Republican Party hellbent on depriving voters of actual choice does not bode well for the future of American democracy, which - bruised and battered as it may be - is still clinging to life.

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

How Many Justices Can Dance On the Head of a Pin?

 Yesterday, the SCOTUS issued a strange and confusing order that removed the restraining order on Trump's deportations...but also sorta constrains them? The 5-4 decision (and 5-4 decisions are going to determine whether we have constitutional government three months or three years from now) says that there must be due process for those facing deportation. So, that's good. The problem is that those facing deportation now have to file for habeas petitions in the jurisdiction in which they are detained. This obviously creates another prime opportunity for jurisdiction shopping. The good news, I suppose, is that this will create a limit on overall extrajudicial deportations to places like Texas, Florida, Idaho and the like. 

The bad news is that if you get arrested and face deportation, chances are you don't have a lawyer on retainer to file you habeas petition. 

This was all done in the "shadow docket" rather than in a more measured opinion. This means that the ruling is pretty limited to these specific cases and the need for jurisdictional relevance. 

What is leaves in place is the fact that the Administration is using the Alien Enemies Act to deport people. As Judge Jackson notes:

The President of the United States has invoked a centuries-old wartime statute to whisk people away to a notoriously brutal, foreign-run prison. For lovers of liberty, this should be quite concerning. Surely, the question whether such Government action is consistent with our Constitution and laws warrants considerable thought and attention from the Judiciary. That was why the District Court issued a temporary restraining order to prevent immediate harm to the targeted individuals while the court considered the lawfulness of the Government’s conduct. But this Court now sees fit to intervene, hastily dashing off a four-paragraph per curiam opinion discarding the District Court’s order based solely on a new legal pronouncement that, one might have thought, would require significant deliberation.

This is where things get dicey, and the presumption that Trump is a "normal" politician creates all sorts of peril. Trump bathes in lies; it is his only fluent language, and the media facilitates this. His trade war is still somehow not being taken at face value by markets, who largely stabilized yesterday, based at least on false rumors of a negotiated end to the insane tariffs. He sure seems serious! He also doesn't have to face voters again, so he seems bound and determined to pursue these trade policies, even as they crater the economy. 

A normal politician would self-correct. A normal politician wouldn't abuse the Alien Enemies Act.

Trump is not a normal politician, and SCOTUS needs to accommodate that in their opinions.

Sunday, March 23, 2025

As Maine Goes

 Richardson makes the connection between Maine governor, Janet Mills, and the Senator from Maine, Margaret Chase Smith, who stood up to Joe McCarthy.  New England women are not prone to taking much shit, a tradition that stretches back to Anne Hutchinson. Mills refuses to abandon civil rights protections for transgender students in the face of Trump's bullying. She famously said to his face, "See you in court."

Trump's track record in court isn't good, and Mills is an attorney whereas Trump is a reality TV star turned wannabe dictator. The real significance is that Mills called Trump on his bullshit to his face. Of course, Trump has threatened and started to anti-constitutionally withhold federal monies from Maine. That question - whether a president can withhold money - should probably be fast-tracked to Supreme Court. If the Assembly of Religious Experts decides that his Highness Donald Trump can target states that have disagreements with him, then the experiment in federalism is over and we should just go ahead and break up the country. It would be that serious.

Trump, as we well know by now, is a bully. Bullies cannot survive defeats. Dominance is their primary currency, and when they lose that, they lose their hold over people. Maine - in fact I would hope the rest of New England would follow suit - needs to take the lead in determining whether we have a federal republic or a monarchy. 

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Full Of Sound And Fury And Signifying Nothing

 There's an interesting idea embedded in this post that a lot of what the Trumpists are doing is just creating the illusion of doing. Apparently Trump signed another one of his Executive Orders to close the Department of Education, but it stands almost zero chance of passing even the most cursory of judicial scrutiny, and even most Republicans in Congress are going to be reluctant to tank that much spending in their home states and districts. The point is not that they are playing twelve-dimensional chess, but that they are basically "playing government on the TeeVee."

These are malevolent people, and the bloated orange carcass at the head of the organizational chart is as malevolent as any of them, but they have energy and he is old and feeble. The minions know though that Trump gets 99% of his information from the TeeVee, because he can't or won't read. He's monumentally uncurious about being accurate, he just wants his prejudices to be comforted. His lack of interest in actual facts makes Dubya Bush look like Archimedes by comparison. His economic "policies" - for instance - are supported by arguments that should not be taken serious as economic arguments. 

If you want to stay in the good graces of the Mad King, then you do stuff on the TeeVee that will look good to him. If NewsMax and Faux say we are eliminating the Department of Education via Executive Order, that THAT'S what important - even more so than actually closing it down. In fact, when the Courts rule that, no, the President cannot eliminate a Congressionally created department, that just gives Trump someone else to fulminate against. 

Richardson lays out the newest babbling nonsense on Faux News about impeaching judges that disagree with Trump. Her point is that Trump's lawyers at the DOJ are basically arguing that Trump is a King who can determine who to deport without a hearing. This contradicts the law. Again, as Bouie described it, this is not unconstitutional, it is anti-constitutional. This is obviously incredibly disturbing on its face, but it's also, ya know, bullshit. Even John Roberts is pushing back in the press, which is a very rare thing for a Chief Justice to do.

However, the argument that Trump is a King is not really intended to be legally correct; it obviously isn't. It will, however, play very well with on Trump's TeeVee, as he gobble down hamburdlers and falls asleep in the blue light of Faux and NewsMax's endless stream of gibbering rage monkeys.

Here's the catch: If this is all for the TeeVee, then we actually aren't in as much danger as we think. Trump's anti-constitutional power grab will fail, because it has all the heft and intellectual power of a 4Chan post. We cannot, however, assume that it will fail. We have to act as if these really are serious people making serious arguments, because if we are wrong about it being just MacBeth's "sound and fury" then we are talking about the end of the United States as we know it. 

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

The Courts Are Holding

Arguably the most disturbing aspect of the Trump Restoration has been the complete and utter disregard for the red letter of the law. They aren't pushing against the laws and looking for weaknesses, cracks that they might exploit. They are just openly and brazenly breaking the law.

One current issue surrounds the deportation of Venezuelans in contradiction of a direct orders from a federal judge. John Roberts has actually begun to push back against the attacks on the Judiciary as a whole that are coming from the White House. While Trump's brazen lawlessness is largely a product of his own creation, maybe he's beginning to realize what this could mean for the judiciary as a whole. He might not give a shit about you and me, but he cares about his own clout. 

Meanwhile, Musk's feeding of the service branch of Social Security into the wood chipper is also pretty lawless. The difference here is that defending Venezuelans - some of whom might actually BE gang members - is about defending an abstraction. Defending Social Security is an immediate priority for people who depend on Social Security. Once we get more cases of lawful recipients being denied coverage, both the courts of law and public opinion should come down firmly against Musk - as indeed they already have on multiple occasions.

We can expect no help from Congress - and this has nothing to do with Chuck Schumer. Democrats have almost zero ability to stop the Executive Branch from being a shitshow of cruelty, hatred and incompetence. However, repeated violations of the courts only plays to Trump's feral base of haters. I'm not expecting Susan Collins to grow a spine, but at some point, even Republican Senators have to worry about Trump openly violating court orders.

This is it, this is the crux of the future of American democracy. Trump is behaving unlawfully, unconstitutionally. At some point, he and Musk are going to break something really important, perhaps Social Security, perhaps education...something; they can't help themselves. The Courts are telling him to stop.

Will he? And if he doesn't, what happens then, both in Congress and on American streets?

UPDATE: Jamelle Bouie calls Trump's actions not unconstitutional but anti-constitutional. 

Saturday, August 17, 2024

John Marshall Harlan

 I've just finished reading a wonderful biography of Supreme Court Justice John Marshall Harlan. For those of you who aren't History Nerds, Harlan was a Justice from 1877 to 1911. During that time, the former slave owner from Kentucky became the staunchest defender of civil rights on the Court and known for his blistering dissents - many of which are now the understood law of the land. Harlan had a remarkable sense of being on the Right Side Of History. A few of his dissents:

- Plessy v Ferguson. His most famous dissent today, it was largely ignored at the time. He alone on the court argued that the XIVth Amendment actually did what it said it was going to do. He argued that the Constitution and the rights enshrined therein were "color blind" in the sense that "separate but equal" was blatantly contrary to the XIVth. His dissent was the backbone of the argument in Brown v Board of Education.

- The Civil Rights Cases. Prior to Plessy, Harlan was also the sole dissenter in a basket of cases where the majority allowed private entities to discriminate on the basis of race. Again, Harlan's interpretation of the XIVth in this case is the standard used by all civil right's law today.

- Pollack v Farmer's Loan and Trust. Pollack was a case over the constitutionality of an income tax. Harlan was one of four justices who adhered to almost a century of precedent on taxation that allowed the federal government to levy an income tax. Pollack was almost universally reviled within a few decades, but it led to the XVIth Amendment explicitly authorizing an income tax.

- United States v E.C. Knight & Co.  Here, again, the Court effectively overruled Congress' authority as established in the Sherman Antitrust Act. Harlan was the lone dissenter who argued that Congress had the power to regulate monopolies.

- The Insular Cases. After the Spanish War and the acquisition of an overseas empire, the question became whether or not the peoples of Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the Philippines had constitutional rights. Harlan was in the minority - often alone again - arguing that the "constitution followed the flag."

- Giles v Harris. Harlan was one of three judges to dissent from a ruling that allowed grandfather clauses and other mechanisms to restrict Black suffrage.

- Lochner v New York. Harlan was one of four judges in the minority who felt that New York could established maximum hours for bakers. Lochner was a stain on the judiciary for decades though the logic behind Lochner and Knight has been adopted by the Roberts Court in overturning Chevron deference

Two things that stand out. The first is that the Fuller Court on which Harlan served most of his term was the worst Court in history - even worse than the current Court which seems to take many of its cues from the majority of the Fuller Court. The second is that even in a time of profound racism and exploitation of workers of all races, there were still actually White men - Southern White men no less - willing to stand up for justice and fairness. Harlan has to be one of the top 3-4 Justices in the history of the Court because he alone for his time stood consistently on the side of the angels.

In my judgment, Harlan was the most important White figure from Lincoln until Lyndon Johnson when it came for civil rights. His arguments - lonely as the were - formed the basis for the "rights revolution" that occurred under the Warren Court. Towards the end of the biography, though, the author noted that Harlan's phrase a "color blind Constitution" has been used to roll back programs like Affirmative Action. 

What's more, because Harlan hewed closely to the actual language of the Reconstruction Amendments, people like Antonin Scalia have cited him as "thoroughly originalist." Since "originalism" is a stalking horse for destroying the New Deal and Great Society, that's stretching the idea pretty damned far. One thing Harlan felt strongly about was that the Court should defer to Congress unless the Constitution was clearly being violated. 

Of all fucking people, Neil Gorsuch at his confirmation hearing said, "Justice Harlan got the original meaning of the Equal Protection Clause right the first time, and the court recognized that belatedly. It is one of the great stains on the Supreme Court's history that it took so long to get to that conclusion." Once on the bench, Gorsuch has largely ignored Harlan's thinking.

The Lochner case from which Harlan dissented was used to strike down many of the early New Deal programs. This caused Franklin Roosevelt to try and pack the court to replace the hidebound old justices who deferred to Lochner. In the end, the Court bent to the necessities of the moment and FDR was able to appoint enough justices who could see beyond the blinkered plutocracy of the Fuller Court.

If Harris wins, there is a chance that she might be able to either change the composition of the Court or replace some of the older justices like Alito and Thomas - two men wedded to the Fuller Court's ignominious ideas. Whatever happens, Dobbs, the presidential immunity ruling and the overturning of Chevron have destroying the legitimacy of the Court in much the same way Lochner did and eventually Plessy was seen to do. 

Hopefully, Sotomayor and Jackson are not modern day Harlan's issuing dissents against a lawless and unjust Court until one day their vision is able to carry the day. 

Thursday, July 4, 2024

The Declaration Of Independence

 The Declaration is an odd document. The first two paragraphs are about a stirring as an example of political rhetoric as one can find. The bulk of the document, however, is an indictment of George III that is prosaic, to the point of boredom. It begins thusly:

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

I guess I'm an originalist now.

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

The Loaded Gun

 Man, after sitting with the SCOTUS decision yesterday for a while, it's pretty clear that they have taken upon themselves powers that are far beyond what any Court has claimed. Combined with the Chevron reversal, the Supreme Court is basically taking away the ability of the Executive and Legislative branches ability to govern without their consent...without saying what they will consent to.

As for the broad immunity that SCOTUS granted, it's pretty clear that that will only apply to Republican presidents. Trump can launch an autogolpe, but Hunter Biden's laptop is a criminal offense, etc.

One thing that I don't think the Federalist Six have considered is that they have handed Biden a very, very powerful campaign issue. The first is the simple partisan lawlessness of the Court itself. The legitimacy of the Court is pretty much in the toilet right now, with even moderate Senators raising the idea of expanding the Court. The most important reform - term limits - is impossible without a Constitutional Amendment, but there are ways to limit or dilute the Court's powers and that is absolutely on the table now.

The better issue, though, is the one Biden raised last night: this SCOTUS ruling makes the character of the president more important than ever. By removing most legal constraints on presidential action, they have put a premium on the president himself restraining himself from doing outrageous things.

There was some desperate/sardonic suggestions that Biden use his new found powers to assassinate the judges or Trump as national security threats. Biden, of course, won't do that, and THAT is the campaign issue he can run on. 

The whole "Democracy is on the ballot" thing is both true but abstract. This ruling is a loaded gun aimed at the heart of American liberty from monarchical power. Whose hand do you want on the trigger?

Monday, July 1, 2024

No One Is Coming To Save Us

 So, The Federalist Six on the SCOTUS decided what they likely decided a month or more ago: presidents enjoy immunity from official acts but not from private ones. This will push the decision back to the lower courts and drag out the time before the trial. Sadly, this ruling - combined with Aileen Cannon acting as a de facto defense attorney in the open-and-shut documents case - means that Trump's legal peril before the election is greatly, greatly reduced. I think this outcome was what we all expected when SCOTUS agreed to take up the issue on the timeline that they did. 

We have a corrupt partisan court. That much is obvious. 

It also looks like - for the moment - Biden won't step aside. I think there is still data that needs to be accounted for, but there is no Johnny Unbeatable waiting in the wings to save us.

We are voting in November for either a man that is likely too old to be the president we need or a felon and congenital liar who would be a dictator if he could. I can argue - and will - that we elect administrations not individuals, and Biden's administration has been very, very impressive. He is, clearly, an inferior candidate at this point, but he does have a compelling record.

So, Trump v Biden is our choice and that means we have to save ourselves in November. That's job one. If we do, then the legal cases against him will come due and maybe...just maybe...we can have our moment of accountability for a man who has used his wealth to escape it (for the most part) so far.

Not liking the situation does not change it.

UPDATE: Everything...EVERYTHING...Josh Marshall said.

Friday, June 28, 2024

In Other Terrible News...

 SCOTUS gutted Chevron, basically reducing the ability of government agencies to write rules. Now, if I'm reading this right, courts will decide the limits of what an agency can do without direct Congressional approval. This will create absolute chaos in the regulatory state, which is the goal.

For all the drama over Biden's terrible debate performance, this is the sort of real world consequence that matters and why it's imperative for a Democrat - any Democrat - to win in November.

Josh Marshall has collected emails from readers about last night and this one was interesting. There was one "BIDEN MUST GO, THIS IS THE END" but the rest took variations on this tone:

It’s important to hold fast onto the idea that what happened last night was not anything like the Access Hollywood tape in real life. It was an old man who acted old. He still has the same agenda, the same moral scruples, and the same team he did before. He’ll still do the same stuff if he’s re-elected.

Do I wish we had a better fighter in the fight? Sure! But the reason we don’t is deeply complicated by cross-coalitional pressures that are hard to resolve. You know who else has cross-coalitional pressures that are hard to resolve? The other side! That’s why they’ve got an out-and-out misogynist bigot at the top of their ticket even though not all of them are misogynist bigots. 

So what I’m saying is, have some time pride. Don’t confuse means and ends. Could Biden lose? Of course! But he hasn’t lost yet and he could actually use our help talking our book instead of flailing around helplessly. So like the man says, get up off the floor, dust yourself off, and get back to work.

The next week will be critically important to whether Biden can re-write the narrative about the debate. Debates themselves are really weird and not indicative of how good a job you do as president. They are a decent yardstick of you will do as a candidate, and Biden's performance legitimately calls into question whether he can carry on as a candidate.

The Chevron decision underscores the extent to which this matter beyond the narrow hatred of Trump and the unique threat he brings to American democracy. This is the oligarchic intent of the entire Republican Party right now.

Thursday, June 13, 2024

Yay?

 Legitimately good news that the Assembly of Religious Experts have allowed mifepristone to remain effectively legal. The ruling was exclusively one of standing, rather than the right to access the drug. On some level, the 9-0 ruling suggests that even Alito and Thomas are beginning to feel the pressure that their partisan and corrupt behavior has brought to bear on the Court.

So, good news! The leading manner to terminate an early pregnancy is still legal. However, you have to wonder what happens when a challenge that does have standing comes before them. 

What's more, this was always a bullshit case. Ridiculous on the merits and the law. And yet there has to be an unclinching among advocates for reproductive rights this morning. Remember, that was what it was like with Trump in the White House. What fresh hell is going to be visited upon us today? What flavor of outrage is on the menu? Living in Trumpistan was a constant clinching, and I get (a little) those who thought we had moved irrevocably beyond that with Biden's election. 

But we haven't. Until we beat Trump one last time and send him off to prison, we have to live on the edge a little bit longer.

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

The Wheels Are Too Damned Slow

 It looks like the current NY hush money/campaign finance case will be Trump's only criminal trial before election day.

In short:

- The documents case - which is a slam dunk - was handed to a manifestly partisan and unfit judge who has succeeded in kicking the case further and further down the road. Aileen Cannon seems to be the only lawyer actually capable of keeping Trump out of trouble.

- The Georgia case is currently in limbo during an appeal of Fani Willis' poor judgment in hiring Nathan Wade while dating him.  Like the NY trial, this is a state matter, but the appeals court seems in no hurry to let the trial proceed.

- Finally, the most serious case of election interference is being interfered with by the Federalist Society clique on the Supreme Court. The completely bullshit decision to hear this case meant pushing it off...and off...and off. I hope that if Democrats clean up in November, they expand the Court and neuter the partisan ideologues in robes.

Campos began the post linked above by blaming Garland, and I get it. However, if anything the decision to make sure every I was dotted and every T crossed seem wise considering the shit that conservative judges are pulling. Where Garland no doubt dropped the ball was in thinking that there were five members of the current Supreme Court who were not incontrovertible hacks.

I do agree with Campos that if Trump is convicted in his current case, that's the game. It would be delicious irony if the least "serious" of Trump's crimes is the one that lands him in prison.