Signal And Noise

 The primary elections continue apace. The Hot Takes follow hard behind.

The latest iteration of the Left-Center tussle within the Democratic Party will be the storyline, because everyone expected Vindman to win the nomination for Florida Senate. Instead, Angie Nixon - of whose existence I was unaware before last night - upset Vindman despite having no cash on hand.

Florida has been a tough lift for Democrats for a quarter century. It's ostensibly purple, but a deep red purple. I really do believe Texas Senate is in play, but as Blexas becomes a potential reality, Florida looks t be retreating. Nominating a DSA-aligned candidate in Florida seems electorally suicidal. Democrats will have to flip a LOT of Trump-Hispanic voters, and in Florida, those are Cubans and Venezuelans. Their experience with "socialism" is unlikely to make them sympathetic to an argument over what specific flavor of "socialism" Nixon supports.

In fact, in Florida, Ashley Moody, the GOP incumbent, won more votes alone than Vindman and Nixon combined. Over 400,000 more votes were cast in the GOP primary than the Democratic one. 

So a sneaky pickup opportunity seems lost.

OTOH, Darlene Graham might actually put South Carolina in play. That would likely require some schisms on the right, but I'd feel more comfortable betting on South Carolina or Kansas flipping than Florida. Still, waves are waves.

Another big story is the casualties among Trump endorsed Super MAGA. In FL-7, accused domestic abuser Cory Mills lost his primary, following in the wake of Andy Ogles loss in Tennessee. Rancid racist James Fishback finished a distant third in the FL-Gov primary. In FL-6, MAGA Troll Randy Fine held off even worse MAGA Troll Dan Bilzerian. 

My worry is that the GOP will send a few of their worst offenders packing - literal crazy woman Nancy Mace's career seems over - which will allow the media to portray a new, post-MAGA GOP that consists of a lot of people like Bill Cassidy or Susan Collins who throw a few moderate rhetorical notes into a career that has enabled Trump and his Legion of Dumb to destroy competent governance in America. 

Ideally, Democrats hold 52-53 Senate seats come January, but that's going to require a Blue Tsunami if they keep nominating longshots like Nixon.