Sunday, October 20, 2019
Saturday, October 19, 2019
In The Open
Jon Chait engages in a bit of "nut picking" when he singles out a Federalist essay supporting Trump's brazenly corrupt decision to host the G-7 at one of his resorts. The word "emolument" has been thrown around a lot since January 2017, because Trump has failed to do two things: divulge his financial records and divest from his business interests. The slogan "Jimmy Carter sold his peanut farm" is fundamentally about the usual standards presidents apply to the separation between their previous business interests and the interests of the American people as filtered through the office of the presidency.
The Federalist is a hack website, as Chait calls it "the Trumpiest of Trumpsites." But this is yet ANOTHER litmus test for Congressional Republicans. This decision is so brazenly corrupt that it requires a response. And there is plenty of time ahead of this decision to generate a response. Congress could easily pass a bill that upheld the idea that the President should not profit of his presidency and in a sane world it would pass with veto proof majorities. The fact that it won't is a sterling example of how the GOP has become a congregation of lickspittles kowtowing to Trump's most erratic impulses.
If Congressional Republicans are indeed sick of Trump's act, as whispers suggest, here is an example to curtail his lawless disregard for the office of the presidency. It does not involve impeachment. It simply stops an action that cannot be justified on any grounds based on precedent or law. But we all know that the GOP won't do shit.
The Federalist is a hack website, as Chait calls it "the Trumpiest of Trumpsites." But this is yet ANOTHER litmus test for Congressional Republicans. This decision is so brazenly corrupt that it requires a response. And there is plenty of time ahead of this decision to generate a response. Congress could easily pass a bill that upheld the idea that the President should not profit of his presidency and in a sane world it would pass with veto proof majorities. The fact that it won't is a sterling example of how the GOP has become a congregation of lickspittles kowtowing to Trump's most erratic impulses.
If Congressional Republicans are indeed sick of Trump's act, as whispers suggest, here is an example to curtail his lawless disregard for the office of the presidency. It does not involve impeachment. It simply stops an action that cannot be justified on any grounds based on precedent or law. But we all know that the GOP won't do shit.
Friday, October 18, 2019
In The End, Will They Care?
The rule of thumb in Trumpistan is that the scandal will unfold like this:
1) Trump is accused of doing something horrible.
2) Trump denies it.
3) The GOP expresses "concern."
4) The details come out and they are really bad.
5) Justifications are advanced that "everyone does this."
6) The GOP moves on and Democrats are left wondering what the hell is going on in America.
The Ukraine scandal is a little different, in that #1 was created by the whistleblower first, but most of this crap happens in public view.
The Turkey scandal feels a little different. Republicans have shown a repeated ability to be unconcerned with wrong-doing among their political allies. (see Kavanaugh, Brett) But Trump's behavior in Turkey does appear to be beyond the Pale. There is no "everyone does it" defense. This makes Munich look like the Battle of Thermopylae.
Everyone is waiting for the GOP Senate to break with this guy. Any normal presidency would have ended already.
I just don't know if anything makes a difference with the Republican party right now.
1) Trump is accused of doing something horrible.
2) Trump denies it.
3) The GOP expresses "concern."
4) The details come out and they are really bad.
5) Justifications are advanced that "everyone does this."
6) The GOP moves on and Democrats are left wondering what the hell is going on in America.
The Ukraine scandal is a little different, in that #1 was created by the whistleblower first, but most of this crap happens in public view.
The Turkey scandal feels a little different. Republicans have shown a repeated ability to be unconcerned with wrong-doing among their political allies. (see Kavanaugh, Brett) But Trump's behavior in Turkey does appear to be beyond the Pale. There is no "everyone does it" defense. This makes Munich look like the Battle of Thermopylae.
Everyone is waiting for the GOP Senate to break with this guy. Any normal presidency would have ended already.
I just don't know if anything makes a difference with the Republican party right now.
Thursday, October 17, 2019
Broken Free Of The Zookeepers
Trump's increasingly blundering moves, especially on PR stunts like the Erdogan letter, the Pelosi picture and ambushing grieving British parents, suggest that there were actually some people in the White House controlling his more erratic and crass impulses. They are quitting and we are only going to see more and more of this raging bullshit from the Oval Office.
Medicare For All
I agree with Martin Longman here. The politics of Warren and Sanders' plans for a quick move to single-payer aren't great. We've tried that time and time again, Teddy and Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton...they all swung for the fences on health care (well, during Nixon's tenure it was Teddy Kennedy who was swinging for the downs).
Lyndon Johnson and Barack Obama are the only two presidents to make significant headway on reforming our health insurance regimen. They did so by passing the best bill they could and then trying to implement it in a way that insured its popularity.
During the debate, Warren was pressed on whether her plan would raise taxes. That's a disingenuous line of attack, because it forces her into the following explanation: "Yes, your taxes go up, but your premiums go down, and if you have employer based insurance, your premiums are largely invisible to you. Plus, if there IS a difference between you premium and the new tax, your employer is likely to pocket it." An explanation like that is honest, but too nuanced for our Stupid Politics.
A better and more realistic question for both Bernie and Warren is this: Will you sign ANY bill that can pass the House and Senate, even if it doesn't achieve your stated goals? That will tell me more about them than a complicated explication of health care funding.
Lyndon Johnson and Barack Obama are the only two presidents to make significant headway on reforming our health insurance regimen. They did so by passing the best bill they could and then trying to implement it in a way that insured its popularity.
During the debate, Warren was pressed on whether her plan would raise taxes. That's a disingenuous line of attack, because it forces her into the following explanation: "Yes, your taxes go up, but your premiums go down, and if you have employer based insurance, your premiums are largely invisible to you. Plus, if there IS a difference between you premium and the new tax, your employer is likely to pocket it." An explanation like that is honest, but too nuanced for our Stupid Politics.
A better and more realistic question for both Bernie and Warren is this: Will you sign ANY bill that can pass the House and Senate, even if it doesn't achieve your stated goals? That will tell me more about them than a complicated explication of health care funding.
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
All Crimes, All The Time
The Trump tax return story has largely faded from view, as Trump has managed to delay the release of his tax returns through obstruction and law suits.
However, it looks like some documents are starting to leak out and SURPRISE! Trump was committing fraud.
However, it looks like some documents are starting to leak out and SURPRISE! Trump was committing fraud.
Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Bolton
There's been a lot of agita on Left Twitter about accepting John Bolton as an ally in the fight against Trump. For some reason, there are those who think we need only allies who are pure in their past and their motives. That is ridiculous.
There are a few Never Trumpers who mean it. And there were some Never Trumpers who moved back into his orbit but have since spun out again in the wake of the Ukraine scandal and the Syrian debacle. Yes, Bolton is not your friend. Neither is Kristol or Walsh or Kasich.
But the disagreements with those guys are primarily about what policies to enact. They are inherently ideological and political. Trump's rank corruption threatens the fabric of our constitutional democracy. Simply beating him in the next election is insufficient. He must be destroyed and his political brand with him. It's not enough to purge Trump from the Oval Office, we need to purge Trumpism from our politics.
And sometimes that means working with odious war criminals like John Bolton.
There are a few Never Trumpers who mean it. And there were some Never Trumpers who moved back into his orbit but have since spun out again in the wake of the Ukraine scandal and the Syrian debacle. Yes, Bolton is not your friend. Neither is Kristol or Walsh or Kasich.
But the disagreements with those guys are primarily about what policies to enact. They are inherently ideological and political. Trump's rank corruption threatens the fabric of our constitutional democracy. Simply beating him in the next election is insufficient. He must be destroyed and his political brand with him. It's not enough to purge Trump from the Oval Office, we need to purge Trumpism from our politics.
And sometimes that means working with odious war criminals like John Bolton.
Monday, October 14, 2019
Sunday, October 13, 2019
Is It Happening?
Martin Longman thinks that Trump's dam might be breaking. There are signs that his support among evangelicals - while still ludicrously high - is beginning to slip. The overall polling numbers are pretty grim for him.
The biggest thing is that low information voters are not the Extremely Online. For anyone who follows politics closely, Trump was a conman and a crook before he rode down that elevator in 2015. But for people who watch The Apprentice more than the news, Trump was a successful businessman. Getting angry at the people who thought that isn't especially useful. The biggest issue for Trump is that he is incapable of growing his base, while meanwhile alienating suburban women. The one pillar of his support that has been unwavering is evangelicals and whites without college degrees. If he dips anywhere close to 50-50 support from those groups, he will lose Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Impeachment is working.
The biggest thing is that low information voters are not the Extremely Online. For anyone who follows politics closely, Trump was a conman and a crook before he rode down that elevator in 2015. But for people who watch The Apprentice more than the news, Trump was a successful businessman. Getting angry at the people who thought that isn't especially useful. The biggest issue for Trump is that he is incapable of growing his base, while meanwhile alienating suburban women. The one pillar of his support that has been unwavering is evangelicals and whites without college degrees. If he dips anywhere close to 50-50 support from those groups, he will lose Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Impeachment is working.
Saturday, October 12, 2019
Hollowing The Institutions Out
Two things are true.
- Kevin McAleenan was a terrible acting DHS secretary who implemented performative cruelty as part of his job description.
- His replacement will be worse.
Two other things are true.
- Shep Smith was a good journalist who brought some factual reality to Fox News.
- His credibility was used to legitimate their opinion section.
We don't know for sure why these men are stepping away from the mechanisms of Republican governance. We don't know if Bill Barr's recent conversation with Rupert Murdoch is tied to Smith's ouster at Fox, for instance. But it's telling that two basically conservative figures have been forced out of the Executive branch and the party's propaganda organ because they are insufficiently loyal to Trump.
Yes, Smith had a tendency to deflate the GOP's more ludicrous conspiracy theories, but he was largely objective as a news anchor. That objectivity likely cost him his job.
Trump has hollowed out many of the institutions of the federal government. Most of his Cabinet positions are filled with acting secretaries, because no one will serve the buffoon, when the most important criteria for a Cabinet post is slavish devotion to Orange Julius Caesar. Now, we look to be on the trajectory of Trump hollowing out the institutions of conservatism. How long does Norm Ornstein hold on at AEI? How many other conservative figures get forced out of other institutions like the National Review or the Hoover Institute? How many GOP Congressmen retire or get primaried?
Trump is turning the GOP into a personality cult, and he's doing it without much pushback.
They deserve the reckoning of history that they will most likely get.
- Kevin McAleenan was a terrible acting DHS secretary who implemented performative cruelty as part of his job description.
- His replacement will be worse.
Two other things are true.
- Shep Smith was a good journalist who brought some factual reality to Fox News.
- His credibility was used to legitimate their opinion section.
We don't know for sure why these men are stepping away from the mechanisms of Republican governance. We don't know if Bill Barr's recent conversation with Rupert Murdoch is tied to Smith's ouster at Fox, for instance. But it's telling that two basically conservative figures have been forced out of the Executive branch and the party's propaganda organ because they are insufficiently loyal to Trump.
Yes, Smith had a tendency to deflate the GOP's more ludicrous conspiracy theories, but he was largely objective as a news anchor. That objectivity likely cost him his job.
Trump has hollowed out many of the institutions of the federal government. Most of his Cabinet positions are filled with acting secretaries, because no one will serve the buffoon, when the most important criteria for a Cabinet post is slavish devotion to Orange Julius Caesar. Now, we look to be on the trajectory of Trump hollowing out the institutions of conservatism. How long does Norm Ornstein hold on at AEI? How many other conservative figures get forced out of other institutions like the National Review or the Hoover Institute? How many GOP Congressmen retire or get primaried?
Trump is turning the GOP into a personality cult, and he's doing it without much pushback.
They deserve the reckoning of history that they will most likely get.
Friday, October 11, 2019
Layers Upon Layers
Martin Longman has been in the weeds of this more than I have, but if he's calling this the biggest scandal in US history, I'd pay attention. Certainly there is an inordinate amount of smoke surrounding Rudy Giuliani.
It's corruption all the way down.
It's corruption all the way down.
Thursday, October 10, 2019
On Ellen
There's a fair amount of shit being lost over Ellen Degeneres sitting next to George W. Bush at a Cowboys game and not stabbing him to death with her drink straw. The article makes cogent points for why Bush was a terrible, terrible president. Yes, he probably should be in the Hague answering for war crimes.
But he's not. And it's not Ellen Degeneres's job to hold a war crimes tribunal in the owner's suite at a Cowboy's game.
If anything, here's another way to frame it:
Disgraced religious bigot who tried to stop same sex marriage is forced to sit next to a wealthier, more popular lesbian and her wife.
There is an exhaustion about purity politics in the age of Twitter and microwaveable outrage. Just punch a button and get piping hot venom! So, yes, Bush was terrible. In some measures he was worse than Trump (though Trump's actions in Syria threaten to dethrone Dubya). But here's the thing. All these Internet Brave Voices, if you were to sit them down next to Bush or even Darth Cheney, they wouldn't move. They wouldn't launch into a piece by piece diatribe over Bush's many failings as president. They would sit and stew and maybe leave early. Few people - when confronted with another actual human being - say the things they saw online.
Ellen has a philosophy of being kind to everyone who crosses her path. That's her creed. She has no obligation to live by yours.
But he's not. And it's not Ellen Degeneres's job to hold a war crimes tribunal in the owner's suite at a Cowboy's game.
If anything, here's another way to frame it:
Disgraced religious bigot who tried to stop same sex marriage is forced to sit next to a wealthier, more popular lesbian and her wife.
There is an exhaustion about purity politics in the age of Twitter and microwaveable outrage. Just punch a button and get piping hot venom! So, yes, Bush was terrible. In some measures he was worse than Trump (though Trump's actions in Syria threaten to dethrone Dubya). But here's the thing. All these Internet Brave Voices, if you were to sit them down next to Bush or even Darth Cheney, they wouldn't move. They wouldn't launch into a piece by piece diatribe over Bush's many failings as president. They would sit and stew and maybe leave early. Few people - when confronted with another actual human being - say the things they saw online.
Ellen has a philosophy of being kind to everyone who crosses her path. That's her creed. She has no obligation to live by yours.
Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Is This A Constitutional Crisis?
Yes. This is a constitutional crisis.
Standing alone, the refusal to comply with subpoenas is in and of itself an impeachable offense. If the Courts weigh in and say they have to hand stuff over and they still refuse...where do we go from there?
Standing alone, the refusal to comply with subpoenas is in and of itself an impeachable offense. If the Courts weigh in and say they have to hand stuff over and they still refuse...where do we go from there?
Tuesday, October 8, 2019
They Can't Quit Him
Brilliant analysis of why "conservatives" will not quit Trump. It starts from the position of "Why not Pence?" Many non-conservatives like myself wonder, "Why not just let Pence give you your reactionary judges and regressive taxes? What conservative policies has Trump advanced that Pence couldn't also? In fact, given the shitshow he's currently unleashing in Syria against the Kurds, wouldn't Pence be much more preferable?"
The problem of this line of reasoning is that, well, it's a line of reasoning.
Conservatives Reactionaries don't really care about policy. Sure, they want to strip away abortion rights and LGBT rights and some other things. Their view of policy is overwhelmingly negative. They want to strip away certain things that have changed their world in the past twenty to thirty years. Again, on a fundamental level the "conservative" movement is really a reactionary movement.
Trump is a perfect avatar of this movement. "Make America Great Again" is the perfect slogan for a reactionary movement that imagines some idyllic past where white men ruled the world with perfect benevolence. What's more, Trump is a seething mass of resentments and grudges, which is perfect for them. To the Reactionaries, Trump is a "fighter." They have deluded themselves in thinking that he's fighting for them, when really he's either fighting to enrich himself or simply lashing out in tantrum after tantrum. But then again, the tantrums are the point.
"Donald Trump hates who I hate" is pretty much the current state of politics in the GOP - outside of those with some modicum of education and perspective. They think that Trump has unlocked some sort of political magic that will allow them to hold on to power.
The reality is much different. Mitt Romney - who typifies the sort of callow, professional politician that Mike Pence also represents - won 47.2% of the popular vote in 2012. Donald Trump won 46.1% four years later. Both numbers represent a shocking reality for the Republican Party. Outside of the sort of "drawing to an inside straight" that Trump pulled off in 2016, they simply will not be able to reach a majority of the electorate. Trump, however, at least nurtures the flaming grievances that define so much of their lives. The piece above references the Kavanaugh hearings, which Reactionaries see as a "win." In fact, Kavanaugh crystalised the problems for many suburban college educated women who don't burn with the culture war resentments of the Republican base.
The WaPo came out with a poll today that shows that Americans support impeachment hearings by 58-38. Slightly fewer think he should be impeached at this time (49%), but that 58% number should shock the hell out of Republicans, because all that's happened since the first whistleblower came forward has been additional damning information. When the dam breaks - and we can feel the foundations shaking - the sheer totality of Trump's criminality will be overwhelming.
Mike Pence is not Donald Trump. If you're a rational person, you would prefer Pence every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Not because he's a "better person" but because he's a less-worse person. He's a bland, theocratic dipshit, but he's unlikely to double down on disastrous policies like a trade war or abandoning the Kurds. He is not so actively friendly towards the world's worst dictators.
The fact that Mike Pence is not a pulsating orange blob of omni-directional rage-tweets actually works against him in the mind of the Reactionary movement.
The problem of this line of reasoning is that, well, it's a line of reasoning.
Trump is a perfect avatar of this movement. "Make America Great Again" is the perfect slogan for a reactionary movement that imagines some idyllic past where white men ruled the world with perfect benevolence. What's more, Trump is a seething mass of resentments and grudges, which is perfect for them. To the Reactionaries, Trump is a "fighter." They have deluded themselves in thinking that he's fighting for them, when really he's either fighting to enrich himself or simply lashing out in tantrum after tantrum. But then again, the tantrums are the point.
"Donald Trump hates who I hate" is pretty much the current state of politics in the GOP - outside of those with some modicum of education and perspective. They think that Trump has unlocked some sort of political magic that will allow them to hold on to power.
The reality is much different. Mitt Romney - who typifies the sort of callow, professional politician that Mike Pence also represents - won 47.2% of the popular vote in 2012. Donald Trump won 46.1% four years later. Both numbers represent a shocking reality for the Republican Party. Outside of the sort of "drawing to an inside straight" that Trump pulled off in 2016, they simply will not be able to reach a majority of the electorate. Trump, however, at least nurtures the flaming grievances that define so much of their lives. The piece above references the Kavanaugh hearings, which Reactionaries see as a "win." In fact, Kavanaugh crystalised the problems for many suburban college educated women who don't burn with the culture war resentments of the Republican base.
The WaPo came out with a poll today that shows that Americans support impeachment hearings by 58-38. Slightly fewer think he should be impeached at this time (49%), but that 58% number should shock the hell out of Republicans, because all that's happened since the first whistleblower came forward has been additional damning information. When the dam breaks - and we can feel the foundations shaking - the sheer totality of Trump's criminality will be overwhelming.
Mike Pence is not Donald Trump. If you're a rational person, you would prefer Pence every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Not because he's a "better person" but because he's a less-worse person. He's a bland, theocratic dipshit, but he's unlikely to double down on disastrous policies like a trade war or abandoning the Kurds. He is not so actively friendly towards the world's worst dictators.
The fact that Mike Pence is not a pulsating orange blob of omni-directional rage-tweets actually works against him in the mind of the Reactionary movement.
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