The Anti-Wonk

 Last week, Trump met with donors and GOP Congresscritters and floated the idea of replacing the income tax with tariffs. As Jon Chait and Matthew Yglesias have pointed out, this is one of those myriad things that would have killed another politician's career.

The reasons are fairly simple. If you wanted to replace the revenues from the income tax with a tariff, you would have to raise tariffs by a LOT. Some of this will come with the idea of zeroing out existing programs, but we've seen time and time again since Reagan that the GOP rails against Big Gubmint, but then can't actually find programs to kill without unacceptable political costs. Think of Trump's efforts to repeal ACA.

So, this massive tariff would function as a de facto national sales tax. At a time when inflation seems to be the biggest concern for everyone, a massive tariff would be hugely inflationary - as would Trump's other dumbass idea: deporting millions of undocumented workers. In fact, this combination of levying a massive tariff to restrict imports and reducing by huge numbers the pool of labor would basically wreck the American (and likely global) economy. It is a catastrophically bad idea.

As Chait points out, this scheme is consistent with the GOP's long running hatred of any form of progressive taxation. Shifting the tax burden away from top earners towards consumers will shift the amount of taxation paid for by people who don't have a lot of money. The idea that this will onshore jobs is also just dumb. No company is going to completely shift its global supply and manufacturing chains for what will likely be a four year window of American protectionism.

That feeds into Yglesias' main point: We simply don't hold Trump accountable for being a terrible president. His ideas are really, really bad. In fact, they were so bad his last time in office that all he really accomplished was massive tax cuts and reshaping the judiciary - which ANY Republican would have done. The uniquely Trumpist ideas all died on the vine. You may have heard that the Big Beautiful Wall was never built nor did Mexico pay for it.

Meanwhile, Biden has done quite a lot. The American economy is the envy of the world, we've made massive investments in clean energy, we are reinvigorating our alliances, and we have reduced the debt burden on millions of Americans. 

Fundamentally, the difference and the baffling reason that this race is so close is that Biden is not a good salesman and that's all Trump ever was - and Trump's sole product was his "brand". Biden's stutter is a bigger liability as he gets older, but Trump's increasingly obvious mental collapse gets waived away because he never really made any sense.

The Biden team has said that "democracy is on the ballot" this fall, and that is literally true. However, in some ways the fact that this race is even close is fundamental indictment of where democracy currently stands. Trump is a felon; Trump tried to overthrow the election; Trump is a sexual predator.  However, simply on the ability of citizens to make a rational decision about which man will do the best job, it's absolutely crazy that anyone who support this gibbering lunatic.

Disorienting

 I'm at my 35 college reunion. I haven't really kept up with anyone from my time in New Hampshire, but still, it's a great place with great people.

It's just that I don't know them.

Like, I recognize their faces. I see their names. We have shared memories of youthful hijinks. 

But I don't know them.

Because the person I was, the people they were, no longer exists. We have become new people. 

I was fairly unhappy in college. Some "imposter syndrome" and just not great and being social (some things never change). I wasn't miserable, but I ducked in and out of depressive episodes. Luckily, I'm not that guy anymore. I have a family that means everything to me; I have a career that gives my life meaning and purpose. I have found peace, and that peace is built on strong foundations, and some of the names on the bricks in that foundation are theirs.  But they also aren't those people any more.

So, I've been struggling with this disorienting sense of disconnection all weekend. Which - when I think about it - is me reliving some of those emotions from 35 years ago.

The Endless Flexibility of the GOP

 Yesterday, Trump returned to the scene of (one of) his crimes. As Marshall and others have noted, it had a very North Korean State Media feel to it. As Trump is wounded more and more by the consequences of his own actions and his increasingly besieged mental state, the Republicans around him go deeper and deeper into Dear Leader mode.

One wonders if there will ever be a breaking point. Are they so "pot committed" to Trump that they will burn down the party with him? Is there even that pivotal moment when his crimes and manifest emotional and mental unfitness for office causes his support to collapse?

When established Republicans have criticized Trump, they have basically signaled the end of their careers - at least to this point. So, it naturally makes sense for any Republican who wants to stay in DC to become a Trumpist sycophant. The more wounded Trump becomes - personally and politically - the more they wrap him in increasingly ludicrous praise.

In the past, racist, nationalist demagogues - Father Coughlin, Joe McCarthy, George Wallace - have had that moment when it all falls away. So far, Trump seems different.

Can that be permanent?

Yay?

 Legitimately good news that the Assembly of Religious Experts have allowed mifepristone to remain effectively legal. The ruling was exclusively one of standing, rather than the right to access the drug. On some level, the 9-0 ruling suggests that even Alito and Thomas are beginning to feel the pressure that their partisan and corrupt behavior has brought to bear on the Court.

So, good news! The leading manner to terminate an early pregnancy is still legal. However, you have to wonder what happens when a challenge that does have standing comes before them. 

What's more, this was always a bullshit case. Ridiculous on the merits and the law. And yet there has to be an unclinching among advocates for reproductive rights this morning. Remember, that was what it was like with Trump in the White House. What fresh hell is going to be visited upon us today? What flavor of outrage is on the menu? Living in Trumpistan was a constant clinching, and I get (a little) those who thought we had moved irrevocably beyond that with Biden's election. 

But we haven't. Until we beat Trump one last time and send him off to prison, we have to live on the edge a little bit longer.

Motives Do Matter

 Yglesias points out that Biden's new immigration policy is probably about as good as you can get given that Trump killed a better deal. Some of this is the consistent "hippie punching" that Yglesias likes to do, by slagging the activist Left, which, you know, fine by me.

The term "open borders" was an attack line used by the Right that became an article of faith, apparently, on the Left. The idea that Biden's immigration policy is the exact same as Trump's neglects a few facts:

- We really do have a crisis in our asylum system.
- We are utterly dependent on Mexico to squeeze immigration short of the border.
- The only constituency for opening up the border to every asylum seeker is a fringe of the Left.
- As we are seeing, there's no guarantee that even if you could somehow make these people citizens that the Democratic Party would see any electoral advantage out of it.
- There is considerable evidence that "open borders" hurts Democrats among Hispanic voters.
- Yes, Trump would be immeasurably worse.

We need more immigration, but we should be able to pick and choose who we want to enter the country. The problem with the Open Borders caucus is not that - per Trump - it's criminals entering the country, but that unlimited immigration has a really depressive effect on wages - especially in the lower income groups.

If you gave Biden an immigration bill without Republican votes, it would probably have the following:

- A path to citizenship or residency for long time inhabitants who are currently undocumented.
- Citizenship for DREAMers.
- A streamlined and properly funded asylum system.
- More avenues for legal immigration, including guest worker and Green Card expansion.
- And, yes, more border enforcement.

The idea that there is a "human right" to cross a border seems extremely fanciful to me. I know it's electoral poison.

It's A Toss Up

 The 538 Model is up and has the race as a tie, with a very, very slight edge to Biden. That feels right for this time in the race. I think Trump loses ground after Labor Day when disengaged voters realize he's the choice and can't really believe it. I also think Biden's edge with Likely Voters comes into sharper focus.

As Josh Marshall points out, this is important because Democrats have been subjected to a consistent drumbeat of doom over Biden's age and poll numbers. That can lead to despondency and demoralization. Negative partisanship could negate some of that, but Democrats need to believe they can win. That current doubt is why people like Nate Silver keep insisting that Biden drop out. 

Yes, the race shouldn't even be a toss-up. Trump is deranged and unfit for office. Americans are being subjected to a concerted disinformation campaign about who he is and what Biden has done. I do think that changes. 

But we aren't losing. And that's a start.

The Best Economy In The World

 It's interesting that economists think we have the best economy in the world right now - especially since the pandemic - but Americans feel the opposite. From the above article:

What explains this sudden boost in lower- and middle-class wages? The answer lies in the post-pandemic American labor market, which has been unbelievably strong. The unemployment rate—defined as the percentage of workers who have recently looked for a job but don’t have one—has been at or below 4 percent for more than two years, the longest streak since the 1960s. Even that understates just how good the current labor market is. Unemployment didn’t fall below 4 percent at any point during the 1970s, ’80s, or ’90s. In 1984—the year Ronald Reagan declared “It’s morning again in America”—unemployment was above 7 percent; for most of the Clinton boom of the 1990s, it was above 5 percent.

And frankly, if you ask most Americans, they will say that their situation is better, but that overall things are worse. I'm sure that is the same as Americans who think Biden is too old but Trump is a virile young thang. 

The labor market is key:

The obvious upside of low unemployment is that people who want jobs can get them. A more subtle consequence, and arguably a more important one, is a shift in power from employers to workers. When unemployment is relatively high, as it was in the years immediately following the 2008 financial crisis, more workers are competing for fewer jobs, making it easier for employers to demand higher qualifications and offer meager pay. That’s how you end up with stories about college graduates working as baristas for $7.25 an hour. But when unemployment is low and relatively few people are looking for jobs, the relationship inverts: Now employers have to compete against one another to attract workers, often by raising wages. And—this is the crucial part—these dynamics affect all workers, not just people who are out of a job.

A more extreme historical example is the Black Death, which transferred power away from the nobility because labor was so scarce. I think it's also important that efforts to restrict immigration will probably lead to higher wages. 

The one black mark is housing, but there's little Biden can do there in the short run. With interest rates high, the housing market is stuck. Still, I am going to predict that in about five years, the housing crisis will have abated.

I have long felt that it will take a spell before people can acclimate to their new prosperity. Hard times have a tail. The inflationary period was shocking and unfamiliar to a lot of people. It's pretty much over, and household wealth is rising.

If people can figure that out before November, we might just save the Republic.

How To Cover Trump

 There has been an accumulating amount of evidence that many purportedly neutral news outlets are subtly putting their thumbs on the scale against Biden - most notably in their atrocious coverage of the booming economy. The recent import of British tabloid editors to run American newsrooms does not bode well for coverage in 2024. Trump was, indeed, good for circulation and it is in those former Fleet Street editors financial interest to keep Trump viable - even help him win. Reporters maybe be neutral or lean-Democratic, but the editors are the one's writing the atrocious headlines that are all people read.

All of this comes to a head when we look at Trump's recent rallies. As Chait notes, Trump has embraced the January 6th rioters and threatened revenge on the majority of Americans who hate him. Additionally, he's showing very real signs of cognitive decline. His rally speeches are filled with gaffes that if Biden uttered them, would end Biden's campaign. Biden is, in fact, old, but Trump is just about as old chronologically, but seems to be in real mental decline.

So, how do you cover that? The Ariana Grande voter is not a member of Cult 45, but they tend to believe objectively false things, like that we are in a recession. Some of this is the terrible news coverage/headlines that suggest the economy is struggling, when it is actually the best economy in the world right now, albeit one with significant inflation concerns. These voters are not really plugged in. Do they really know how much farther right Trump has moved since January 6th? Do they know how much of his rallies are just word salad?

The problem is that preconceptions are hard to overcome. People remember the Trump years as being good economically, and to a large degree they were - right up until they weren't. They blame Biden for the massive economic hit that took place in the last year of Trump's presidency. They think Biden is the old one, when they are both old. Biden looks to be in more physical decline, because he broke his foot a few years back and his gait reflects that. whereas Trump was always an idiot and is now in the early throws of what appears to be dementia.

So, do you cover Trump the way you did in 2016? Just show his rallies - or at least the "highlights" of his rallies? How much do you keep pointing out Project 2025?  There's a not uncompelling argument that this merely mainstreams and normalizes Trump's fascistic madness. The question is whether enough Americans are immune to that madness.

No big deal. Just the future of democracy around the world is at stake.

The Kids

 One of the disturbing trends of this election is the defection of young people from Biden. It is routinely put on the Gazan War, but I can't help but think it's a combination of vibes and a rampant disinformation campaign, because so many young people get their news from really, really dodgy sources. 

One thing young people claim to care a lot about is climate change, and if they are telling the truth, then they really should not only vote for Biden, but volunteer for his campaign. Of course, you have climate grifters like the Sunrise Movement withholding support from Biden, which kind of encapsulates much of what's wrong with Leftist politics, but it also demonstrates how bullshit narratives warp the debate. (I read about a focus group where someone said they were leaning Trump, "because he will create jobs" which flies in the face of every piece of factual evidence about the current job market - one of the best in US history.)

If the republic dies in November, the cause of death will be that too many people believed some seriously bullshit stuff.

New York Dems

 A couple of days ago, I noted the abject failure of Governor Hochul's congestion pricing for NYC. Today's example of feckless NY Democrats is Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Now, I find it hard to believe he extended this invitation for Netanyahu to speak before Congress without approval from the White House, but who knows. Still, Netanyahu is part of a global illiberal Right that is really the opposite of everything the Democratic Party should stand for. And that's leaving aside his war crimes.

I absolutely support Israel's right to exist, but that does not mean I support every Israeli government and especially this one. This is another Own Goal.

Assholes All The Way Down

 Jon Chait points out something that's really painfully obvious to an even casual observer of the American Reich Right. When Democrats praise American values like decency, democracy, the rule of law and fair play, the Right sees it as an attack on them. Some of this is because they are always and only in attack mode and "every accusation is a confession". The deeper reason is that while Trump literally wraps himself in the flag, like so many flag humpers, he's not interested in the values the flag represents, but rather as a culture war totem. Instead, Trump's basic ethos is foundationally un-American. He has always loved dictators - which is why he kept his family business closely held: no accountability. He has been a lifelong white collar criminal who is famous for stiffing his working class vendors. He is actively rooting for Russia.

What's so disturbing is - as Ron Brownstein points out - that Trump's now complete control over the Republican Party means that all of that nasty, un-American ideology is now deeply imbedded in the heart of one of our two parties. 

Back in 2016 I assumed with everyone else that Trump would lose, but I hedged it with "But he is the nominee of one of our two major parties, so..." 

Now, eight years later, Trump has succeeded in turning the GOP into an engine of meanness, corruption and, yes, fascism. 

The Hurdle

 Trying to properly put a price on emissions is really tricky and politically unpopular. One way that has worked overseas is congestion pricing. It's basically a toll on driving into and around cities. New York was considering such a move, but the feckless governor killed it. As an aside, let's take a moment to reflect on just how wretched the New York Democratic Party really is. There is pretty much nothing they can't fuck up. Congestion pricing would've hit Connecticut and New Jersey drivers the hardest and been to the benefit of NYC's transit system, so naturally Hochul killed it.

Aside from the awfulness of NY Dems, this is a great example of how difficult it will be to use market mechanisms to decrease emissions. Anything that raises prices directly - like a tax - is pretty much DOA in an era of inflation worries, but really at any time. Asking people to pay more for something they are already doing for "free" is going to lead to a revolt.

That's why you have to rely on the more cumbersome measures like regulatory action. I think the rush to EVs is a little premature, given our power grid - which itself can be addressed by regulation and direct action - but there is no reason that we can't mandate a move to hybrids and EVs together. Yes, cars will cost more, but ALL cars will cost more and it won't be a tax or a toll that voters see directly.

Also, there is some work on this, but Democrats need to be hammering Trump's tariff plans as being a tax more heavily. It's a tax AND it's inflationary. 

If the criminality of the modern Republican Party can ever sink through and voters reward Democrats with the trifecta in November (and Dems finally kill the filibuster), then I would actually argue for very little new spending. There's a strong case for raising taxes on the rich, limited new programs and a reduction in the deficit.

The one place, though, that they should spend is on carbon-free electrical generation and new transmission lines. The market won't do it fast enough.

Missing The Damned Point

 Paul Campos notes a recent focus group where someone said that Trump reminded him of Walter White in Breaking Bad or Tony Soprano and they find that a positive.

In our school - like most others - students are required to take English every year, math through at least Algebra II, two years of science and two years of history, and the third year of a language. Almost every student takes more science and history than that in four years.

Then they go to college.

In college, they increasingly use the experience as a commodity. Their degree is - somewhat understandably -  a commodity to be leveraged to a better paying career. College is expensive, so I get that. However, that often means that the Humanities are hollowed out. Everyone is taking business/finance classes or STEM classes, because that's where the money is.

The result, though, is the guy like Jonathan, who thinks that Walter White is doing things for anyone other than himself. At least Jonathan understands that White is the anti-hero, that he does bad things. However, the Greek tragedy of Breaking Bad is that Walter is incredibly selfish. He may start cooking meth because he has cancer and wants a nest-egg for his family after he dies, but after the cancer goes into remission, he still cooks. As he says in the end, "I did it for me."

The romance of the outlaw hero is so much bullshit. Dillinger was a psychopathic killer, not a tribune of the people. Walter White did terrible things because he liked the power. Same goes for Trump.

When people stop training their minds in the way that the Humanities train them, they wind up blinkered with a shallower understanding of the world we live in. Trump could not survive in a country that still understood critical thinking skills. (Then again, he IS cratering with those with college degrees.)

Need To Re-Frame Trump

 Jon Chait makes a good point that Trump's support among the billionaire class stands in somewhat stark contradiction to his unearned reputation as a populist champion. Like most populists, Trump doesn't really give a damn about the common clay of the new west. Still, as Josh Marshall says, you can't expect your campaign message to make itself. You REALLY can't trust the press to point out that Trump's policy agenda (aside from ending democracy as we know it) is massively inflationary and tilted towards the 1%. 

One advantage Trump has always had is that he's so freaking egregious in his manifest flaws that you can struggle to pick which flaw to attack. Still, I think I would prioritize the following:

- He's a sexual predator who wants to take away birth control. This is both E. Jean Carroll and Stormy Daniels to a degree, plus Dobbs.

- He's an endlessly corrupt tool of the plutocrats. There are his fraud trials and his frequent promises to do their dirty work in exchange for money.

- He hates America. Just listen to him.

That's a pretty solid three targets that have to be hit over and over again.

Railbird

 I had the great good fortune of going to Railbird music festival in Lexington, Kentucky this past weekend as my Christmas present. It was a helluva an experience. Artists like Noah Kahan, Lord Huron and Hozier put on absolutely killer sets. Counting Crows were weird as hell. But it was the artists I had never heard or even heard of that made it fun: Johnnyswims, Allison Russell, Nolan Taylor; plus artists I had heard but never properly placed like Trampled by Turtles and Sam Barber.

Anyway, it was fun to unplug from the internet for four days. I recommend it.