The 538 Model is up and has the race as a tie, with a very, very slight edge to Biden. That feels right for this time in the race. I think Trump loses ground after Labor Day when disengaged voters realize he's the choice and can't really believe it. I also think Biden's edge with Likely Voters comes into sharper focus.
As Josh Marshall points out, this is important because Democrats have been subjected to a consistent drumbeat of doom over Biden's age and poll numbers. That can lead to despondency and demoralization. Negative partisanship could negate some of that, but Democrats need to believe they can win. That current doubt is why people like Nate Silver keep insisting that Biden drop out.
Yes, the race shouldn't even be a toss-up. Trump is deranged and unfit for office. Americans are being subjected to a concerted disinformation campaign about who he is and what Biden has done. I do think that changes.
But we aren't losing. And that's a start.
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