Adventures in Wankery

The ritual emasculation of a Democratic President

Sadly, my vacation has consisted of a lot of cable news being on in the background.

I hate cable news.

Right now on MSNBC they are discussing whether Obama will be a one term president.  The new Congress has not been seated yet, and we're already moving on to the next horse race story.  Because, goshdarnit, them policy stories is just too durned hard.

To make matters worse, the panel that "even the liberal" MSNBC is using consists of correspondent Karen Finney, a GOP strategist and an as yet unseated freshman GOP congressman.

Yes.

That's the panel.

The amount of wankery present in political coverage is astounding.  They're using a poll that says 48% of Americans will definitely vote against Obama. Leaving aside the merits of basing your conclusion on one poll, the political landscape for 2012 is over the horizon.

(Chuck Todd did have a good line yesterday, which I'll paraphrase: "Every night, Obama must get on his knees and pray that the economy recovers, Afghanistan becomes more orderly and Sarah Palin wins the GOP nomination.")

First, if the economy improves and continues to improve through 2012, that will do more than anything else to improve his chances.  And by the economy, I mean the unemployment picture.  There is only one President who was re-elected after a panic began in his first term, James Monroe.  And this panic began in 2008, maybe 2007.  So he needs to see the cyclical up-tick that will likely happen.  Unless we his a double-dip recession.  Then he's toast.  (Unless he can plausibly blame it on GOP obstruction in the House.)

Second, there are demographics on his side.  If the presidential electorate of 2008 had turned out in 2010, we'd still be seeing a Democratic House.  Two years of the expected GOP wankery will likely wear on voters.  Once people stop getting their unemployment benefits, once public works projects start shutting down, once tax breaks start getting funneled to corporations... You get the idea.  Even among people who voted for the GOP this month don't agree unanimously with the GOP agenda.  Over 35% of GOP voters want to see the government do something about unemployment.  That coalition isn't really a coalition.  It's the Tea Party and the protest vote.

Finally, the GOP nominee isn't decided yet.  I find Sarah Palin a combination of laughable and dangerous.  If she wins the GOP nomination, she goes down to a Sharon Angle-style defeat.  I think - I HOPE - that this would be true even if we have a double-dip recession.

Rather than talk about whether Obama can win two years from now, a more fruitful discussion would center on how the GOP nomination process will play out.  When Clinton was left for dead in 1994, I predicted he would win easily because the GOP bench was so thin.

I see the same thing today.

Palin is a media creature with the gravitas of a mylar Hannah Montana balloon.

Newt Gingrich, well, everyone hates Newt Gingrich.  He comes with built-in negatives that would make Goering blush.  He's also "old news".  Ask Bob Dole how that works out.

Mitt Romney.  He's easy to dismiss because he's the DC media's pick.  Just like Rudy Giuliani in 2008 or John McCain in 2000.  The guy passed a health care reform bill in Massachusetts that's practically indistinguishable from "Obamacare".  There is NO WAY a Mormon, health care reformer gets past the frothing crazies that make up the GOP primary.  Ask Mike Castle.

Mitch Daniels. Another trendy Beltway pick, because he's not stupid and he's a governor.  Ultimately, however, like most politicians who don't quit their jobs to become media personalities, he's had to make tough choices, especially in this economic climate.  And he's as charismatic as you would expect the governor of Indiana to be.

Mike Huckabee.  I think this might be the guy.  He's "country" enough and "white" enough to appeal to the overwhelmingly rural and white make-up of the GOP electorate.  He's got a touch of populism in him, and a touch of bigotry, too.  That will play well.  He has a sense of humor (something Alaska Snowbilly Grifter Lady lacks).  He's the acceptable alternative to Palin for the Tea Party.

John Thune.  Who the fuck is John Thune?

The GOP establishment will try and rally around an alternative to Palin.  They can see another Angle/O'Donnell train wreck coming from that.  But the more they try and tear her down, the more the GOP base rallies around her.  She is the living breathing personification of white-grievance politics.

Right now, I'd say she's the favorite for the GOP nomination when you take into account the "base" of the GOP.  Given the winner-take-all nature of the GOP primary system, she could easily rack up big electoral totals with 35-40% of the vote, unless they find a way to sink her.

So, media, speculate on THAT.  If Palin is the nominee, Obama wins by a landslide.