We Are All Mayans Now

Amuuuricaaaaa!

For whatever reason there has been a lot of stuff coming out in the past 24 hours about the dynamics of the GOP primaries.

Matt Taibbi launched one of his verbal napalm attacks on the prospects of Michelle Bachmann becoming president, a possibility he finds troublingly real.

There is a poll that finds Obama leading the GOP field in Tennessee of all places, despite Obama topping out at 38%.

Rick Perry continues to play Cuomo/Thompson with pursuing the GOP nod.

The dynamics as I see it are roughly this, and I don't think this is much of a stretch.

1) Mitt Romney is the quintessential GOP frontrunner.  He came in second the time before, it's his turn, he has the money behind him and he's probably the "most electable" Republican in the field.

2) The Tea Party is feeling their oats from 2010.  Despite the fact that the actions of Tea Partisans are roundly condemned by the public at large, whether in the Midwest governorships or in Paul Ryan's budget plan, the Tea Party wants a "pure" candidate.  (In that sense, they are similar to the FDL crowd on the Left that wants to primary Obama with, I dunno, Kucinich and Cornell West.

3) The competition for the GOP nomination in 2012 will largely come down to Romney and Not Romney, in much the same way 2008 was about Clinton and Not Clinton.  When Obama (mercifully) beat out Edwards to be Not Clinton, the race was on.  At some point, a GOP Winger will emerge to become Not Romney.  I've stated that if Perry gets in, it will be him.  But Bachmann is increasingly plausible as the Not Romney.

4) If the Not Romney candidate wins the GOP nomination, Obama will almost certainly win re-election.  This is why Karl Rove has thrown his support behind Romney.  He understands this.  Rove always knows to put the best face on the odious GOP policies.  Of course, I don't think anyone wants to "have a beer" with Romney.  Especially not if he's an observant Mormon, because that near-beer stuff sucks.

Thrown into the hopper is the terrifying possibility that the GOP really will blow up the economy in August by not raising the debt ceiling.  Cantor abandoned the Biden meetings today and Boehner says that if there are any additional tax revenues, he won't support the debt limit increase.  He already has 40 members of his caucus saying that they won't sign on to an increase without ridiculous concessions.

The GOP has also backed away from supporting tax cuts - TAX CUTS - to stimulate the economy, because they are counting on a bad economy to help them in 2012.

It is still possible for the GOP to win in 2012.  It is also possible that they lose the Presidency and the House.

This July will be especially interesting, with the debt limit issue.  As always, the American public is woefully misinformed about a complex economic issue -  in this case the debt limit.  But this fight will largely determine the future of this country and both sides know it.

Stay tuned...