One thing Democrats and Republicans can apparently agree on is that they shouldn't look at the polls. The most recent reputable polls have the following margins: USC/Dornsife (Biden +10); Morning Consult (Biden +8.5); Leger (Biden +7) and then the "holy shit" polls: Emerson (Biden +3), Atlas Intel (Biden +3).
Which polling sample is right? The Atlas Intel poll has Trump's support among Black voters at 28%. That...uhhh...seems off. But Emerson is a well regarded pollster, and they also have Trump drawing close to 20% among Blacks. Morning Consult did a lot of state polling and found Biden leading in Florida (+2), Pennsylvania (+4), North Carolina (+2), Minnesota (+7), Wisconsin (+9), Michigan (+10), Georgia (+3) and Arizona (+10). I'd like to Pennsylvania higher, but those are strong polls. If he only holds on to PA, WI, MI, MN, and AZ, that's 289 EV. Add in ME2 and we are at 290. But if you add in FL, GA and NC, you vault to 350.
In other words, unless Trump really is winning 20% of Black voters, Biden is winning.
Which brings me to the next two months. There are two important pending actions for Congress this fall. The first is our apparent inability to figure out how to keep the government open. Yes, it's time for Government Shutdown In The Middle Of A Pandemic! The second is another stimulus plan. The GOP hardliners are opposed to both.
Ideally, we would get a CR to keep the federal government open and a stimulus bill that will help state and municipal governments (who are hamstrung by balanced budget amendments) to keep providing funding for local services. The towering irony is that if the GOP can't agree to a stimulus bills THEY WILL BE DEFUNDING THE POLICE.
If you're Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer here is your calculus - which has remained roughly the same since May. First, negotiate, but only on your terms. If the GOP won't meet your demands, fine. A wave of layoffs and misery will hit the country in October. Second, realize that even a half measure will help, capitulate to the GOP in order to forestall real misery and deaths of despair that will come from no CR and no stimulus.
Do you do what's best for your party or what's best for your country. We know the GOP would pick party over country. And it can often help them win elections. Given the existential threat Trump poses to American democracy, I would be inclined to draw bright red lines and let McConnell and Mark Meadows walk away. Let the government shut down. Let the states furlough teachers and cops. Let the markets tank. Better to do that than agree to a shit bill that could hand Trump another four years and still cause all sorts of problems in the short term, much less the long.
I have faith in Nancy Pelosi but only to a point. She will protect her caucus. She will protect her party. Hopefully that will protect us all.
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