Here is an article explaining why we can't predict the result of the fall election with any certainty. Some of this is true of any election. Much more of it is true because of the unprecedented way that Trump won in 2016. Pundits are shell-shocked.
There is perhaps an argument that the pandemic hurts Trump in terms of his handling of it, but gives him a pass on a terrible economy. There is reluctance to say who the protests hurt more: Trump as an authoritarian goon or Biden as a tool of the Radical Left. Who knows how remote voting will work? All of this is true, but there are some salient facts at play.
Let's look at this chart of first term approval ratings of previous presidents (in red and Trump in grey). In order we have Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama.
What explodes off the page for me is the consistency of Trump's numbers. The idea that those numbers are going to change anytime soon is laughable.
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