What is remarkable about this election is how unstable the populace is and how stable the electorate is. Take a look at this. Aside from a little Covid-19 bump for Trump (much smaller than other heads of government), his re-elect number has been amazingly stable at between 41-43%. He's the incumbent; he's known; people have largely made their mind about him. The common refrain from Blue America is "How the hell can 4 out of 10 Americans support this putz?" But the reality is that incumbents usually win election, and his numbers have been very stable and very bad. These re-elect numbers are largely the same as his job approval numbers. RCP uses some trash polls, but you can still see the stability. Even with trash polls like Rasmussen and Trafalgar, Trump's job approval is really shitty.
At the same time, the country is incredibly unstable. As Trump fans the hatreds of his base, protests are becoming increasingly shot through with violence. Trump is wagering that if he gets the base to violently interact with mostly Black and radical remnants of the mass protests of June, then he will eek out a win by appealing to law and order. However, there is very little chance of that working.
The understated dynamic of 2016 was that BOTH candidates were historically unpopular. Biden has been derided as the Most Generic White Guy, but that turns out to appear to be a huge advantage. Turnout was actually high though as people came out to vote AGAINST Clinton or Trump (along with those eager to see the first female president). According to these metrics, only the wartime elections of 2004 and 2008 had as high a voter participation as 2016, unless you want to go back to 1968. So where are "new" Trump voters coming from? As the article states, electoral strategies that depend on turnout usually fail. Ask Bernie Sanders how that worked out.
Usually, anything you do to inflame your base inflames the other base. The more Trumpier Trump gets, the more he appeals to his supporters worst instincts, the more he forces fence sitters into Biden's lap. Notably, in 2016, Republicans won a slim plurality of votes for the House of Representatives. In 2018, Democrats won the House popular vote by 9 points. Guess what Biden's lead is right now.
At this point in time, Trump is losing. Badly. Texas and Georgia are toss-ups. Wisconsin - which was supposed to flip back to Trump with the unrest in Kenosha - is trending towards Biden. Recent polling from Arizona - the home of Barry Goldwater - shows about a ten point lead for Biden. Pennsylvania seems to be the most important state right now for both camps.
As the current underdog, Trump has to change the dynamics of the race, but there's precious little he can do. Historically, debates have been the last chance to change the trajectory of a campaign, but Trump's approval/re-elect number is so stubbornly persistent that it's unlikely he can get any change out of that. Trump has been trying to paint Biden as a senile old fool living in his basement, and Biden's stutter has been at the heart of that effort. If Biden comes out and puts in a completely average debate performance, the election is over. Trump has created such low expectations of Biden that he's gifting him his only chance to get back in the race.
Yeah, yeah, vote like we're losing. Sure. But sometimes it helps to get people to the polls if they know they are going to win and similarly if the numbers move further from Trump in the wake of the Atlantic story about his disparaging remarks about the military, it could depress Republican turnout. That's how you keep Doug Jones in the Senate and kick Graham, McConnell and Cornyn out.
Right now, we're winning. Time to run up the score.
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