It's The Pandemic, Stupid

 While there is no question that the relentlessly negative coverage of our retreat from Afghanistan has impacted Biden's approval numbers - coverage that it fundamentally unmoored from reality - the idea that Afghanistan will be the issue that decides the midterm elections next year seems far fetched.

The issue will be the next six to nine months of the pandemic. Sure, Biden's legislative agenda is looking a bit shaky with nine morons "moderates" holding it hostage because apparently for some people, it's still 1994. Still, I expect Nancy Pelosi to roll them flat as a pancake. No, the issue will be Covid.

Biden's pressers and interviews have all stressed that the buck stops with him over Afghanistan. This is his policy and he's counting on doing the right thing and being Trumanesque will ultimately accrue to his benefit or at least won't hurt him.

Covid is different. For whatever reason, we have people like Ron DeathSantis refusing to follow public  health advice while promoting horse dewormers. DeSantis is still getting remarkably soft media scrutiny despite the horror show unfolding on his watch. 

This is yet another test of the American polity's ability to navigate policy consequences. As Biden has said about Afghanistan, the buck does stop with him. With Covid, because of our balkanized public health institutions, it's largely up to state and local governments to arrest the spread of the virus. Yet, when we look at the Covid ActNow map, we see a wide swath of red and dark red states. 

Now, I have my problems with that map. I think it rather alarmist. Take Illinois for example, the state has a 65.6% vaccination rate, a reasonably low positive test rate of 5.2% and an RO of 1.11. That's not great, but they are coded red because they have 28.6 new cases per 100,000. Both their infection rate and positive test rate are declining. Their ICU beds are currently manageable. Let's compare to Texas. Texas has a lower vaccination rate at 56.8%, a positive test rate three times as high at 15.9%, but a curiously low RO of 1.04. Their daily new cases is twice as high at 52.8/100,000. How are these the same? Texas' ICU situation is critical and their deaths are skyrocketing. That both states are coded the same color is a serious flaw. There's good date at Covid ActNow, but their color coding is problematic, especially if they are basing things on vaccinated people who have tested positive but had mild or no symptoms.

Now let's look at Florida. They have 106.5 new cases per 100,000 people. They have a positive test rate of 18.9, which suggests not enough testing is being done to catch all infections. While 63.4% of Floridians are vaccinated, this number is skewed by the large number of people over 65 who live in Florida and have been vaccinated. The current iteration of the pandemic is people under 65 who have the Delta variant. ICU beds are full and more and more people are going to require those beds, not to mention that "normal" ICU patients will get squeezed out. My son is headed to Savannah for college and while I'm not worried about him getting Covid (again), the fact that there is basically no room in the local hospitals does scare me.

Currently the Northeast is largely coded Orange, mostly because of the daily new cases. Again no differential between positive asymptomatic cases in the vaccinated and people on their way to the ICU (although Connecticut ICUs are only at 56% capacity). However, cold weather is coming and schools are returning to in-person learning. Will Delta cause an explosion in the Northeast?  I very highly doubt a Florida-style debacle will happen here, but it could very, very easily get worse.

Which brings me back to Biden and the Democrats. 

If various mandates, fear of Delta and complete FDA approval can get vaccination rates over 70% combined with infection-acquired immunity could finally dampen the spread and turn the pandemic in a background illness like the flu. If that happens, Democrats should do fine next November, all things considered. They might still lose the House, but they also might not. If the pandemic is still raging, even if it is the fault of Republican governors, then Biden - and by extension Democrats - will be hurt, because the President's party will get blamed for the weather, much less a pandemic.

Of course, the fact that prominent anti-vaxxers and rightist media figures keep dying of Covid, maybe there won't be anyone around to rally the Spreadnecks.