We Need To Normalize That Biden Is Good

 Joe Biden has had an excellent year by just about any standard you care to measure. He's signed 65 pieces of bipartisan legislation. Did you know that? He actually gained Senate seats for his party. You probably knew that. Inflation is coming under control and we are exceeding our goals to decarbonize our economy. 

Yeah... he's boring. He has a stutter. He's old. I get it. You want someone with Bill Clinton's charisma and Obama's brains, but instead the Old Irish Pol turns out to know a thing or two about how to run a government.

Pretty Good Year

 Jonathan Alter explains why 2022 was a pretty good year. This is a reasonable position to take, but as I and others have noted, we are addicted to doom.

Things could be getting better, but we won't "feel" like they are getting better, because we have wired ourselves not to feel good news.

Not Just A Weird Story

 It seems pretty clear that serial liar, George Santos, probably committed multiple financial crimes in his life. There's the open criminal charge from Brazil, but his entire American resume is so replete with falsehoods and unexplained sources of money that it would strain credulity to believe that he wasn't involved in financial crimes.

In some ways, this mirrors Trump, who committed multiple financial crimes over the decades, from tax evasion to outright fraud. If Santos had lost his election - or if Trump had in 2016 - they could have coasted on their increased profile to grift even more. 

What's striking, of course, is that it took the scrutiny of running for public office to expose their criminality, and yet they decided to run for office. 

Narcissism, amirite?

Blue States

 Democrats showed increasing strength at the state level in 2022. They will control the "trifecta" in states that have 140 million Americans, which is more than the number of Americans living in states with a Republican trifecta. Importantly, Democrats won the trifecta in Michigan, a state that famously barely flipped for Trump in 2016. They also control the trifecta in New York, California, Illinois, Minnesota, Colorado and the usual assortment of New England and Pacific Coast states.

Republicans control the trifectas in Texas, Florida, Georgia and Ohio. Significant larger states that have split control include Virginia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona. Meanwhile, North Carolina and Wisconsin have been gerrymandered so extensively that Democratic control of state legislatures is basically impossible under current conditions.

States during the Progressive Era were called the Laboratories of Democracy, but conservative strength at the state level - from natural and artificial gerrymanders - often led to terrible laws written by ALEX like "Stand Your Ground" laws. Now, we have the potential reverse of this dynamic. 

These new Democratic trifectas will allow for legislation surrounding choice, marijuana and criminal justice reform and other important issues. Hell, in Connecticut, we got a major tax cut!

As the video above notes, we are not going to see any significant legislation at the federal level for the next two years, but there could be some important work being done at the state level.

Off To The Great American Carnage In NYC

 I hope to see at least one drag queen MS-13 member kill a cop with airborne fentanyl while teaching critical race theory.

Reality Had A Well-Known Liberal Bias

 Arizona courts have thrown out Distaff Trump's lawsuit to overturn the gubernatorial election. Lake will, of course, appeal, because denying reality is pretty much a bedrock Republican position in the Age of Trump.

The consistent failure of Republicans in front of judges demonstrates how wedded the GOP has become to the alternate universe of Fox/OANN/Newsmax. Those organizations have moved so far from objective reality that they have created a cocoon of disinformation that is as hard as diamonds. The more information contradicts their beliefs, the deeper that must mean the conspiracy goes.

Judges and courts, however, do not give a shit whether you "feel" like something is true or not. Whether you are Alex Jones, Kari Lake or Donald Trump, courts do not care about what you suspect, only what you can prove.

This is important to keep in mind as the Department of Justice considers charges against Trump related to January 6th. I think we all "know" that Trump was at the heart of the insurrection, but the ability of the DOJ to prove that will be tricky, given that you will need a paper trail and to establish Trump's motivations in the moment.

Still, the courts HAVE worked in large part to keep the excesses of Trumpism at bay.

What's The Equivalent?

 Read this nice story about a Congresswoman from New Mexico who made it her mission to replace a dangerous school on Navajo lands. She said that this was the reason she came to Congress: to make sure some of her most vulnerable constituents had a safe, new school.

Can you imagine a similar agenda or sense of achievement from a Republican member of Congress? Aside from defunding critical race drag shows or cutting Elon Musk's taxes, what exactly do Republican members come to Washington to do? Not complain about...do?

There are a lot of differences between the two parties, but that one strikes me as fundamental. If you are not in Washington to solve actual problems - not the outrage de jour on Fox - why are you there? 

You are there, because it beats working, because it's prestigious. So, winning means more than doing anything concrete, because, hell, you aren't there to do anything concrete to begin with. So, if winning is more important than anything else, then it's very easy to avoid having principles. It's very easy to embrace Donald Trump.

Merry Christmas, Ya Filthy Animals

 Hope the next year brings at least a little more peace on earth.

The Don

 Reading this account of Cassidy Hutchinson's lawyer is like reading a draft of a really crappy Godfather knock off. Donald Trump wanted to be Don Corleane, not Don Trump. That's been clear since his relationship with Roy Cohn. 

So...yes...we should prosecute the Don.

The Omnibus

 The House has passed and Biden will sign the last budget we will likely see until 2024. The primary objection from Republicans seemed to be that it was - wait for it - too long. Sure, too big, too much money, but they objected to it being too long. It's $1.7 trillion, did they expect it to fit in a Tweet?

The Post notes its past includes many objectives.

With it, lawmakers appended a wide array of other long-stalled legislative proposals — banning TikTok on government devices, helping Americans save for retirement, protecting pregnant workers from discrimination and rethinking the way the country counts electoral votes in the presidential election.

It was noteworthy that AOC and Rashida Tlaib voted against it or abstained respectively. Probably because of the size of the military budget, but that's obviously bloated by the massive amount of material we have and will send to Ukraine. Since we are sending surplus munitions to Ukraine, the bill not only provides direct aid, but it also allows for replenishing what we've shipped overseas. 

The bill also changes the Electoral Vote Count Act to bypass Trump's theories on how to overturn the election. There are also interesting benefits for pregnant women that passed with bipartisan votes in the Senate. In fact, quite a lot of this got votes in the Senate.

Back when he was elected, Biden was criticized for believing he could get Republicans to do anything with Democrats. But the so-called "Silent Congress" has passed quite a lot of legislation. Some of this might be McConnell's realization that breaking the Senate has been part of what created Trump, but I also think there are people, at least in the Senate, who might want to govern a little. I think they take their lead from Romney, frankly, but there are a handful of GOP Senators (only a handful) who want to try and make life better for Americans.

The House GOP?  Eh, not so much.

However, nine Republicans voted for the Omnibus in the House. At first, I was hopeful that this could be a moderating caucus between the Insane Clown Posse Caucus and the Democrats, but looking at the roster of Republicans who actually wanted to govern is sobering.

Here's the list: Liz Cheney, Rodney Davis, Brian Fitzpatrick, Jaime Herrera Butler, Chris Jacobs, John Katko, Adam Kinzinger, Fred Upton, Steven Womack. 

The bolded members will not be returning to Congress in January. Only Fitzpatrick and Womack voted for the Omnibus and will be seated in the next session. Any Republican with even a semblance of a desire to actually govern is dead meat when it comes to the GOP caucus.

The question is how many of the new members will want to vote for budgets or even continuing resolutions in the coming years? You need five members to cross party lines, so let's assume - perhaps rashly - that Fitzpatrick and Womack will continue to keep the lights on. Now you need three. There are seven members who were elected by under 3% of the vote, presumably making them look at a tougher re-election landscape in 2024. The three from NY alone should worry about a backlash to the backlash that swept them into office. Who knows what Santos will do.

While it is empirically good that this bill passed and we will keep the government open and fund important programs, we need to understand that we are headed for more "government by tantrum" in the next two years, because the NY Democratic Party doesn't understand how to play hardball politics anymore.

It's Not A CANDIDATE Quality Problem

 The GOP's relatively poor showing in the midterm elections has been blamed on "candidate quality" which is meant to refer to the latter day freak shows of Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker and Blake Masters. (Apparently it doesn't refer to George Santos, because no one paid attention to what a colossal freak he is.)

It is therefore considered a worrying sign for Democrats in 2024, when the Senate map is terrible and presumably the GOP won't make the mistake of nominating people like Kari Lake or Walker.

There's a reason why I'm skeptical of this.

The GOP is not a party with a lunatic fringe. It's a party with a lunatic center. 

This article on Charlie Kirk is a great example. Kirk is one of the young idiots like Ben Shapiro, Lara Loomer and James O'Keefe who have become stars within the Right Wing firmament for reasons that no one outside of that closed information system can explain. Kirk is famous and influential, because he is famous and influential. While there are certainly figure like that on the left, they have marginal influence on actual policy and politics in the Democratic Party. Instead, the center of gravity in Rightist politics is represented by these pod-people who exist entirely within a universe of Fox News' making.

It is worth noting that we are continually being reminded that the people at Fox themselves don't believe this bullshit. While Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson have enough life experience to know that Roger Stone is a liar and con artist, but then turn around and use those lies and cons to entertain and enrage their audience, idiots like Kirk or Lake really don't seem to get that it's all lies. Apparently, Kari Lake really believes that the 2020 election was stolen. Because she's an idiot, and being an idiot is a critical way to relate to the brain-worm infested GOP electorate. Ask Herschel Walker's voters.

So, even if there were a bunch of great GOP candidates waiting in the wings, the reality is that the GOP base will continue to cough up hairballs like Mehmet Oz and lose elections that they should win.

The Real War On Christmas

 The Orthodox Church of Ukraine is moving its celebration of Christmas to December 25th.  As we have a Ukrainian student staying with us, he has explained that January 7th is when Eastern Orthodox liturgical calendars celebrate Christmas. By moving the date, Ukraine is signaling a further break with Russia and a closer commitment to Europe.

But tell me again how insulted you are when someone says Happy Holidays.

Crazier And Crazier

 The George Santos story just keeps getting weirder and weirder. The "openly gay Republican" is now, perhaps, not even that. (Also, apparently I owe a partial apology to Santos' Democratic opponent. I said, his opponent didn't bother to find out this crap before the election. Evidently, they did, but they couldn't interest the press and never tied all the fabulist bullshit together. My criticism of the media and the NY Democratic Party still stands.)

A lifetime ago, my wife and I worked with a young woman who was a similar compulsive liar. One my groomsmen in my wedding fell for it and nearly had his life destroyed by her architecture of lies. The fact that she was very pretty no doubt helped her, but also, no one really bothers to check this crap out. We trust people not to lie ALL THE TIME. White lies, lies of expediency...sure, we've all fudged and trimmed the truth to our needs at some point. 

Santos is clearly pathological, as Laura Wickberg was. I'm not sure how you even combat it.

UPDATE: Nope, the media - at least the local media - gets a pass, too.

UPDATE 2: Seriously, FUCK THE NY STATE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

Addicted To Doom

 Yglesias talks about the accomplishments of the Secret Congress. Basically, Congress has done some great stuff, but it flies under the radar for two reasons. First, the more publicity it gets, the harder it is to make a deal. Partisanship means no one will sign off on any deals that are public. So, Congress writes a really good bill for clean water - in Yglesias' example - and the water gets cleaner. But if you make a big deal about it, Republicans won't do the next deal.

The bigger reason he notes - and this is true and more important - is that we are driven by negativity. We consume news stories that are negative. No one wants positive news, I guess. It's partly a function of the 24 hour news cycle and being terminally online. People click through negative headlines, even if the stories are neutral, so outlets write negative headlines. 

I just spoke to an old family friend who felt the world was falling apart. It really isn't, but it feels that way. We are so addicted to bad news that we can't even see the good news. Anyone notice the price of gasoline these days? As Yglesias notes, the story of "Gas Prices Return To Normal Levels" is not a story any major outlet will run, unless they can spin it around to a negative: "Cheaper Gas Prices Imperil Climate."

With Twitter falling apart, I've been wasting time on Tik Tok instead, and I found a feed of heartwarming stories. Just tweets and posts about really, really nice things. It was great! And yet when Jim Krasinski did his "Good News" YouTube thing, people shit all over it.

We are incapable of accepting the fact that in most ways, the world is much better off than it was 50 or even 20 years ago...which actually kinda makes us worse off. The air and water are cleaner, we've stamped out public smoking, we don't stand on the Cold War nuclear precipice, miracle drugs and technological advances proceed apace.

And yet the internet and mobile devices are robbing us of our happiness. If we combine the pervasive emotional impact of being online with the frankly terrifying advances in AI, it's time we stopped letting technology grow without some sort of master plan. We need to control the machines, because they are, to a large extent, controlling us. 

Ultimately, all I want for my sons is for them to be happy. Certain things - a modicum of wealth and comfort, health, love - are required for this, but I fear we will squander our happiness in pursuit of dopamine hits from Instagram and Tik Tok.

There's A There There

 If the House Ways and Means Committee votes to release Trump's tax returns, it means that there is something in them worth exposing. I don't think they will release them out of spite. They aren't Republicans.

Remember Covid? Crazy Times...

 So Covid revisited our house this past week. Luckily only one of us was Covid positive so that I could take my son and our team to a wrestling tournament last Saturday. (He took second, but he absolutely could have and arguably should have won the final. We are still bitter.)

Anyway, Covid positive, but we had tests and tested a lot. She went on Paxlovid and was pretty miserable for about 4-5 days but is testing negative and is on the mend. No pneumonia, thank Dog. 

China has finally relaxed its Zero Covid policy of lockdowns and quarantines. Super happy for the people of China who can do normal stuff again. Here's the problem: China's vaccine sucks and their vaccination rates ain't great. Which means we have over a billion people who are going to see Covid race through their population and then the virus will mutate. 

As this weekly collection of Covid stories points out, we have dismantled much of the surveillance architecture surrounding Covid and now we won't know what will hit us until it hits us. We are still seeing a couple of thousand people a week die from Covid and if we see another January spike (we will) that number will go up. People aren't getting boosters or variant specific boosters.

TL;DR: we are headed for another Covid surge, but we will shrug as a few tens of thousands of Americans die. If they were all Trumpist QAnon types, that would be...interesting.

Nice Job Everyone, Nice Job

 The Times has an expose on freshman GOP Congressman George Santos.

First, the context. Republicans gained 10 seats in the midterms. If that number had been 5 seats, Democrats would've held on to the House. Democrats lost five swing seats in NY state. Democrats had tried to gerrymander their state, in response to GOP gerrymanders in places like Florida, Ohio and Texas, but the state Supreme Court struck down the map. Right there, that was probably enough to swing those seats towards the GOP.

However, in NY-3, the incumbent did not run, opting instead for a failed bid to become governor. What had been a Lean-D district was suddenly open...and no one checked on who George Santos was.

Now that he's been elected, the Times decided to look into the claims of his personal biography and Hoooolyyyyy Shit.

Basically, the Times looked into his claims about his employment, his education, his charity work...all bullshit. He fabricated companies, said he went to schools he didn't go to...it's amazing. He was arrested in Brazil for stealing a checkbook from someone his mother - a nurse - was caring for. He looks to be - though the Times won't say it - involved in several scams and Ponzi schemes.

He claimed to have worked for a company called Devolder and you get 'graphs like this one:

In the disclosure, Mr. Santos said that he was the Devolder Organization’s sole owner and managing member. He reported that the company, which is based in New York but was registered in Florida, paid him a $750,000 salary. He also earned dividends from Devolder totaling somewhere between $1 million and $5 million — even though Devolder’s estimated value was listed in the same range.

The Devolder Organization has no public-facing assets or other property that The Times could locate. Mr. Santos’s disclosure form did not provide information about clients that would have contributed to such a haul — a seeming violation of the requirement to disclose any compensation in excess of $5,000 from a single source.

Where did THAT money come from? The follow up is even more amazing:

“This report raises red flags because no clients are reported for a multimillion-dollar client services company,” Mr. Payne said, adding: “The congressman-elect should explain what’s going on.”

The Times attempted to interview Mr. Santos at the address where he is registered to vote and that was associated with a campaign donation he made in October, but a person at that address said on Sunday that she was not familiar with him.

How the hell did this not get discovered? He was clearly using his campaign as a personal slush fund:

Campaign disclosures show that Mr. Santos lived large as a candidate, buying shirts for his staff from Brooks Brothers and charging the campaign for meals at the restaurant inside Bergdorf Goodman.

Mr. Santos also spent a considerable amount of money traveling — charging his campaign roughly $40,000 in flights to places that included California, Texas and Florida. All told, Mr. Santos spent more than $17,000 in Florida, mostly on restaurants and hotels, including at least one evening at the Breakers, a five-star hotel and resort in Palm Beach, three miles up the road from Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s private club and residence.

So, we have someone who is telling apparent lies about his life story, running a campaign as a grift to make money, probably has a litany of financial crimes in his background...I mean, he's the perfect Trumpist candidate!

Here's the kicker, though.

Where was this investigation BEFORE the election? Where was the Times, which is the only news organization with the resources to do this sort of reporting?

And most of all, where was the NY Democratic Party? I don't have all the patience in the world with left and left of center critics who slam the Democrats for, I dunno, allowing Joe Manchin to live or not somehow getting 10 Republican Senators to codify Roe.

But the NY Democratic Party is an absolute disgrace from top to bottom. Their failure to "properly" gerrymander their state, Cuomo's disastrous picks for the State Supreme Court and the fact that they had the guy in charge of retaining the House majority lose his own seat...AND THEY LET THIS YEGG WIN AN ELECTION WITHOUT VETTING...Sweet Baby Jesus...

GOAT

 Yesterday saw perhaps the greatest single game in the history of any sport, by one of the greatest athletes of all time. The debate between Pele, Maradona and Messi can never be settled, since they played in three different eras. But the Messi-Ronaldo debate is done and dusted. Ronaldo's peevishness certainly diminished his luster, too.

To have  World Cup final - with the compelling narrative of the greatest player of his era versus the defending champs and the greatest player of the next era - would have been enough. Argentina's second goal was such a piece of brilliance, the parade seemed on in Buenos Aires. But Argentina struggles to finish games and France had a brilliant 90 seconds to tie it. 

When Messi put them back ahead in extra time...and then France tied it again...and then Martinez made one of the greatest saves in World Cup history...and then penalties...Holy crap.

It certainly helped my blood pressure that I wanted Messi to finally etch his name in the pantheons of greats to lift the World Cup, but I wasn't Argentinian.

Is Trump Done?

 Josh Marshall looks at the latest spasmodic grift from Trumpistan and wonders if maybe Trump has finally lost his grip on the Trumpenproletariat. My skepticism is based on the following:

- Establishment GOP leaders want Trump gone, so they will conduct push poll after push poll to convince people that Trump is a loser and DeSantis is a winner. We know Trump voters don't answer polls, so any softness in his poll numbers feels suspect to me.

- The stink of losing certainly does hold to Trump, but Cult 45 doesn't believe he lost. Evangelicals - almost by definition - are impervious to reason and facts. They have faith and faith alone, and right now that faith is invested in Trump. If the GOP forces him aside against his wishes, he will burn the place down.

So maybe DeSantis gets a clean kill shot and eliminates Hair Furor. More likely we get a series of primary wins and losses and a brutal, drawn out bloodbath. Or - if DeSantis gets his kill shot - Trump bolts the party and forms his own, based on the sort of grift that Marshall notes and Paul Campos laments.

The single best thing for America is a massive schism on the right in 2024. Two rightist parties fighting it out for every House and Senate seat and the White House itself. Dark Brandon wins 45 states if that happens.

This F-ing Guy Again

 Yglesias has one of his better pieces about Elon Musk, online anger and the conservative mind.  He cited this golden line:

“Twitter is 90% someone imagining a guy, tricking themselves into believing that guy exists and then getting mad about it.”

This is about as accurate a description of Twitter and general online behavior as I can think of. It wasn't ALL about getting outraged over imaginary crap, but a lot of it really is. As Twitter dies, I certainly notice I've been spending less and less time there. I have a few curated feeds about Ukraine and Iran that I check in on periodically, but I don't just scroll through it. It's just boring now. Maybe Musk should rebrand Twitter as the Boring Company.

It's telling that as Twitter gets boring, it loses engagement and that's because anger drives engagement. The negative engagement model is making us all pretty miserable. This isn't to say that I didn't really enjoy the witty and insightful takes on that hellscape. I did. But there was also the pervasive "someone on the Internet is wrong" dynamic. I don't miss that.

That the World's Formerly Richest Man is making himself angry and miserable about made-up bullshit does complete his journey to the conservative side of the cultural divide. Yglesias does some Bothsides crap about angry leftists, but it is clear that anger drives extremism, and social media makes us angrier.

Being outraged by imaginary stuff is now the primary focus and even the goal of conservative politics. There is no policy, no governing philosophy. It is simply endless iterations of people getting outraged by pronouns and someone who chooses to wear a mask to the grocery store. It is - in that sense - fundamentally indecent, fundamentally bullying and cruel.

The GOP is basically the personification of the worst parts of social media.

Fusion Won't Save Us

 The announcement that we finally got "more" energy out of a fusion reaction than we put into it is...great? But it does not mean we are anywhere close to having fusion power plants. This is mostly a "raw science" breakthrough. It's important on the road to getting fusion...someday.

But we should still be building fission power plants today. Insane that we aren't. Climate change is very real and very scary. The fact that we won't use the single best tool in our arsenal to make abundant electricity to de-carbonize the world is just baffling to me.

Serious Question

 What - exactly - do conservatives think the electoral appeal of Hunter Biden's penis is? I suppose they think they were so successful with Benghazi that they are eager to run the same playbook on Joe Biden.

This negates the fact that Hillary Clinton came with a baked in disadvantage: she's a woman, and we have unconscious biases against women asking for leadership positions. She was also the ultimate "insider" in an election that tilted towards an outsider...AND SHE WON MORE VOTES.

Exam Week

 Ugh

Global Crazy

 Reading this BBC piece about basically a sovereign citizen movement in Germany (linked to those folks they arrested earlier this week) makes me realize how universal the civic craziness is. For all the profoundly dysfunctional aspects of American civic life, it's not uniquely American. I mean, from a purely economic point of view, Brexit was crazier and more damaging than even the election of Trump. 

By civic life, I mean the shared space we live in and agree to manage by certain rules, and I'm not sure how you repair civic life. I'm at least a little skeptical that we ever had some golden age of civic life, and even when it was better, it often excluded minority groups. How do we create a shared sense of community? 

For conservatives, civic life is centered around a faith tradition, but those faith traditions are often exclusionary and rarely universal. For liberals, the concept of tolerance is central to community. Those two visions are diametrically opposed. It's difficult to say "There is no god but God and Muhammad is his profit, but I'm cool with atheists, too." Faith often leads to certainty, whereas tolerance is rooted in questioning and doubt about your own perspective. "I might be wrong, so I won't judge" is very different from faith.

Max Weber (I think) referred to the Enlightenment as the "disenchantment of the world," but that was only true for a slice of educated elites. Increasingly today, we are divided along lines of faith and no faith, as opposed to between faiths. Faith-based community was a strong community and tolerance-based community are more atomistic.

The challenge for liberals is to create a universalist and connective theory of community to bind people to a common civic project.

Fuck - And I Cannot Stress This Enough - Her

 Kristen...Christine...Kyrsten Sinema's latest Drama Queen PAY ATTENTION TO ME stunt is deeply damaging to Democratic slim hopes to hold on to the Senate in 2024. With the 51st Senate seat being captured, Sinema's incessant need to be the center of attention has been degraded. Additionally, the swerve of the Arizona GOP into QAnon-land has rendered the possibility of Ruben Gallego winning the primary and the general election pretty solid. Sinema is increasingly toxic within the Arizona Democratic Party, and I think even someone as obtuse as she is knows this.

If - as she claims, which who the fuck knows what her claims are worth - she does not change how she votes, this has very few implications for the next two years. Democrats will have a solid if thin majority that will allow them to hold majority positions on committees. 

No, this is about ratfucking the 2024 Senate election. If she runs as an independent and Gallego runs as the Democrat, then this dramatically increases the odds of Senator Kari Lake or Senator Paul Gosar for six nightmarish years.

Biden needs a plan to offer her a plum job somewhere - Ambassador to Monaco - just to get her toxic need to be the center of attention out of the Senate. Arizona has a Democratic governor who can appoint Gallego to an interim appointment. Sinema can then transition to what she really wants to be: a K-Street prostitute.

Joe Manchin I always understood. Sinema is just a toxic narcissist and needs to be treated as the closest thing to Trump the Democratic Party has produced.

UPDATE: Paul Campos thinks this might be prelude to a No Labels third party run. She has to know she's deadmeat in Arizona.

Good, I Guess?

 Congress has passed a law to protect same sex and interracial marriages, Yay!

Because you can no longer trust the Supreme Court to have an expansive view of personal rights. Boo!

So Much Losing

 Let's recap Trump's Tuesday.

- The Trump Organization was convicted on all 17 counts of tax fraud and other criming. 

- The January 6th Commission has made criminal referrals. 

- Jack Smith, the Special Counsel, has subpoenaed Trump's minions trying to overturn the election.

- Trump's ritual humiliation in the midterm elections were capped by Walker's defeat in Georgia.

Trump's entire (false) public persona is that of the billionaire "winner" who wins by always winning. It's a self-fulfilling cycle whereby his wealth and illusions of wealth and his celebrity within the febrile world of NY tabloids created a sense of power where little real power existed. Trump would bully his vendors and others with lawsuits and threats, and because he was "Donald Trump" he got away with it more often than not.

All of that is unraveling in slow motion. 

It's Good! It's Bad!

 The results of the Georgia Senate run-off are simultaneously encouraging and discouraging. Warnock won!  Walker - who's legitimately dain bramaged - got over 48% of the vote! Your opinion on this result is almost a Rorschach test for how you feel about American politics. What has been made crystal clear for the millionth time is just how divided our politics are depending on where you live. The Great Sorting continues to define so much of our political life.

In rural Georgia, as defined by the Washington Post, Walker won by 319,000 votes. There are a fair number of Black voters in rural Georgia, but we are still seeing the prevalence of WWC voters in those rural areas. These are folks who think that cities are combat zones of crime and depravity, because they simply never go there.

In Atlanta proper, Warnock won by 193,000 votes and over 75% of the vote. This is in keeping with normal historical patterns.

What is potentially good news is the continued movement of suburbs towards Democrats. Warnock won by 222,000 votes there, not only in Atlanta's ring suburbs but smaller cities like Augusta, Athens, Savannah and Columbus. The possible qualifying issue is that Atlanta's suburbs are remarkably diverse. Dekalb is substantially African American, for instance. 

If the continued presence of Trump Mimics - people whose primary appeal is "celebrity" as opposed to competence - forces college educated suburban voters to become firmly established Democrats, then that is good news long term.

The Mill Of Justice Grinds Slow...

 ...but it grinds exceedingly fine. Of course, there is no guarantee that guilty verdicts will be returned or even that the DOJ will act on these criminal referrals. However, everyone who wanted results yesterday misunderstands how this process works. It took two years to bring Nixon to resign, and we are looking at a similar timeline for Trump and January 6th. We've already seen Stewart Rhodes and other co-conspirators convicted.

Ideally, we get "quick" convictions for people like Roger Stone, but that eel of a human being seems to slither out of everything. Even getting someone like Mulvaney to sweat a little bit would be worth it.

There is no way to divorce Trump from the Trumpists. They believe in him, not some set of abstract ideas. The problem is that one of the most important beliefs in Trump is the belief - accurate! - that Trump uniquely annoys/enrages/pwns the libtards. So running a presidential candidate under indictment for sedition and criminal conspiracy likely won't bother them.

As the midterms demonstrated, though, the shelf life for Trump's grievance-based politics is waning. Trump has never been the "People's Choice." Increasing alienation of America's younger voters will only increase. Trump running will bring some Trumpists to the polls who might have sat this one out, but it will motivate normal people even more.

Keep grinding.

Like An Anvil Around Their Necks

 Once again, Josh Marshall is correct. Trump's most recent statements are beyond the Pale. Saying that the Constitution should be suspended so that he can take power is straight up Krazy Town. Those statements need to be hung around the neck of every Republican in the country. Trumpism has had its moment and it is the past, but unless the GOP fully rejects it, it will remains on the periphery and ready to make a comeback.

Kill it with fire.

Cracks

 Alexis de Tocqueville once said that the most dangerous moment for a bad regime was the moment it tried to reform itself. Corrupt authoritarian regimes don't adapt well, and when they begin to loosen their grip or accommodate popular unrest, those early cracks can crumble the foundations of their rule. We saw this with glasnost and perestroika in the old USSR.

We may be seeing it in Iran today. The Attorney General of Iran has said that they are abolishing the "Morality Police" who enforced the hijab and other aspects of the dress code. The problem is that the Judicial ministry does not control the Morality Police, the Interior Ministry does. This is potentially the precise form of inter-regime schism that often leads to regime collapse. As a segment of the Iranian government begins to accede to the the protests, if the government as a whole does not agree, then those schisms create pressures that the continuing protest movement can exploit. 

While the wearing of the hijab is the spark, the kindling that turned these protests into an inferno is years of economic mismanagement and corruption. There was also a poor Covid response and Iran's isolation from global society. Cosmetic changes in how the hijab law is enforced are unlikely to end the protests; in fact a taste of success could accelerate them.

Inshallah.

Good Luck With That

 The GOP dramatically underperformed in the midterms, with the exception perhaps of NY state. Naturally, a well functioning party would want to examine WHY they squandered a chance to win the Senate in times of economic turmoil. The GQP is not exactly a well functioning party. They are going to have their decennial "autopsy" to determine why people hate them and what they can do to actually win. 

They did this in 2012 and decided that they need to appeal to Hispanic voters and soften some of their culture warrior tropes to win younger voters. In 2016, they nominated Trump. Now, the GOP could be "led" by Mike Lindell going into the next presidential election and that will be great for the GOP, I'm sure.

If I could describe the midterm dynamic, it would be this: While Americans have some concerns about the general state of things, they are generally willing to give Democrats a chance to fix things, because the Republicans have gone around the bend. Whether on abortion or January 6th, the bulk of the American electorate does not feel confident handing the reins to Trumpists again.

Ideally, the razor thin margin in the House make a debt default unlikely. The House will screech and flail about like chimps on meth and remind people how insane Trumpistan was. The economy levels out; Ukraine wins and Biden - or another Democrat - romps in 2024.

Ideally.

Immigration Reform Now

 The primary economic priority right now is the state of play when it comes to inflation. Some of this is unavoidable, as energy costs continue to be volatile and likely will remain volatile until Russia is expelled from Ukraine.

However, there are other inflationary pressures on the economy, and they seem to be linked to employment. Fundamentally, there are not enough workers to fill job openings. This is good for workers, because employers need to raise wages to staff their businesses. It's bad news for consumers, when businesses pass those increased costs on to customers.

The conventional way to fight inflation is to raise interest rates, which makes money for borrowing harder to come by. This reduces economic activity as a whole and cools off inflation. The problem is that the "heat" in this economy is either from oil prices - which aren't really linked to monetary policy - or a tight labor market. So we are seeing a downturn in sectors like construction and manufacturing, because they are more dependent on easy credit. We are punishing certain sectors, while other sectors see robust job creation, even with high interest rates.

If you wanted to douse the inflationary fire, the easiest way economically would be immigration reform that allowed more people into the country either as Green Card holders or temporary worker status. Instead, we have a patchwork asylum system that's overloaded with migrants from places like Nicaragua or Venezuela who are here for bot legitimate asylum reasons and just a desire for a better life.

How much better would America be with more Nigerians or South Africans? More Indians? With almost no language barrier, incredible work ethics and perhaps even some needed skills, migrants from these countries could improve their personal circumstances and create downward pressure on wages that would ease inflation without the Federal Reserve having to force a recession on the country.

It's very important to note that inflation is not an American problem. Inflation in the EU is running at 10%, compared to the 7.7% we are seeing in the US. There's a pretty simple reason why we are seeing this, even above and beyond rising energy costs: Covid killed a lot of people. Lots of them are older, but there are also people who stayed home and changed their employment status. Plus, in most "post-industrial" countries the populations are, in fact, older. There are still quite a few workers in their 50s and even 60s. And some of them died and they weren't replaced by younger workers.

The US birthrate is 12.4 births per 1000 people. The global average is 18.5. India and Mexico's are over 18. Japan's economic stagnation since 1990 is tied to it's birthrate of around 8 per 1000. America isn't quite in that demographic death spiral, but if the American economy is going to grow, we need to start letting more immigrants into this country.

Sadly, there is an entire political movement oriented around destroying American economic growth. Ironically, they say they want to Make America Great Again, when really they are insuring its long term collapse.

The Post-Governance Party

 Fascinating take on the battle for the Speakership of the House. There's a weird quirk whereby Hakeem Jeffries could become Speaker, if enough of the Loony Tunes Caucus abstains or votes for Donald Trump or Marjorie Traitor Green. McCarthy is such a spineless tool, it's actually kinda fun to watch him twist in the wind.

New York

 The Democrats loss of the House comes down to New York state. Democrats in NY had created a soft gerrymander to help their candidates, in response to similar GOP gerrymanders in states like Texas, Wisconsin and Ohio. Additionally, The New York Post seems to have an outsized effect on perceptions of crime by voters in suburban areas.

I think the crime angle was determinative. As Blue States work to introduce more justice to our justice system, it lends itself to fear mongering by the Murdoch press. My state tried to end felony convictions for minors, to end the "school to prison pipeline." Instead, it may have contributed to a spike in car thefts by minors, who were recruited by adults to commit the crimes. The state has amended that process, but the damage was likely done.

The two leading causes of the abandonment of Great Society liberalism were inflation and crime. Republicans aren't blind to this history and they will run this playbook again, if possible.

Unsustainable

 It's difficult for most Americans to understand the profound grip that soccer/football/futball has on the rest of the world. It's somewhat manic.

Which is why the news that Iranians are celebrating their country's ouster from the World Cup by the United States (The Great Satan) feels like another watershed moment. It is sometimes difficult for Americans or Westerners to understand that authoritarian regimes can actually be legitimate in the eyes of its' people. 

Since Covid, anti-authority protests have rocked governments around the world, authoritarian to democratic. George Floyd to the Yellow Vests to Iran to China. But democratic regimes are more adaptable, and we are seeing a fundamental challenge to "the way things are" which democracies are better able to address. 

Right now, the only thing keeping the mullahs in power in Iran is the military, specifically the Revolutionary Guard. There is a non-Revolutionary Guard military, though, and if they break with the Ayatollah the way the previous military broke with the Shah, we could finally see Iran rejoin the community of nations that it left in 1979.

Freaking Out A Little Right Now

 Under two hours until US v Iran. My yardstick for this World Cup was to advance out of the group. A win and nothing else does that. This is a damned good team, but one that does not score goals with needed regularity. Can they find the two goals they might need to move on?

Actual Tyranny

 The GOP caterwauling about "lockdowns" during the pandemic never made objective sense. We locked down in the spring of 2020, but then slowly returned to a varying level of engagement by the summer. We were masked, but not locked down. By the following spring, we had enough vaccine penetration to begin to unravel even those restrictions. There were certain high density areas that continued to be mask heavy and some school districts remained remote, but we were not under "lockdowns" except for a few months in 2020.

Meanwhile, there is China. They have been actively pursuing a "Covid Zero" strategy of frequent lockdowns but a poor vaccine campaign. They are claiming this is working, but it's almost certainly a massive load of bullshit. I'm currently sitting in an ambulatory surgery center and I have to wear a mask. It feels profoundly strange (and itchy!) because it's been so long since I had to wear one for this long.

I agree with some voices who are concerned about Covid-based learning loss. We need a plan for this generation of young people. Kids are resilient, but they need support and understanding. However, the overall US plan - mask, vaccinate, boost - is a good one, and while Covid does still exist my school is frankly dealing with more cases of RSV and flu than Covid.

China's pursuit of a lockdown-centric Covid strategy is blowing up in its face, because it is an actual tyranny, not the pretend one of Lauren Boebert's fever dreams.

So, About Those Nazis...

 Interesting about Trump's dinner with Ye and (Kanye West) and Nick Fuentes. The fact that Fuentes is an outright fascist - I mean, like, textbook - seems to have had a small impact on Trump. He seems to be distancing himself from the dinner, saying he had no idea who Fuentes was or that he would be invited. Even Trump gets that this was a dodgy meeting.

His trolls and cultists are defending - not the dinner exactly - the liberal outrage over the fact that the de facto leader of the GOP broke bread with a Nazi.

This dynamic is so fucking perverse. Trump does something that SHOULD end a political career. Normal people call him out on this abhorrent behavior. Cult 45 swarms on to Elon's Hellspace to attack those who think Nazis are bad.

Look, there are plenty of other awful, awful human beings in the GOP! You don't HAVE to defend Trump. He's old and mean and stupid and likely a criminal in multiple ways. His continued footsie with Nazis does not have to be defended! Jettison this orange shitsack and let the country move on.

Totally Normal, Totally Fine

 Trump meets with Nazi, but even Trump seems to realize this isn't good. The beast is bigger than his creator.

Trolldom

 From Trump to Elon Musk to various online Nazis to...well, it's just everywhere...we have became suffused with trolls whose currency is attention. What did these odious creatures do before the internet? Where did they get their visceral thrills at forcing people to engage with their nonsense?

Why is this the way some people are?

Deplorables

The reaction to the Club Q shooting represents another return to the dark days when "America was great" because being gay or Black was illegal. The shooter's dad is...woof. The fact that the shooter was likely trolling people with his pronouns has been used by Angry Hobbit Ben Shapiro to argue that it wasn't a hate crime at all. Not the usual "lone wolf" or "mentally disturbed individual" angle, but pretty much "who gives a shit if queers die."

The premier counterfactual for this period in history is simply this: If all those Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania had voted for the email lady, would the Trumpist-style of hate-based politics remain at the margins - rather than the absolute heart - of GOP politics? How much license did Trump's "victory" give the absolute most hateful people in America to vocalize and act on their hate, or how much does Trump simply represent a moment that was inevitable? Is he cause or effect?

Oh, yeah, Happy Thanksgiving and shit.

Yeah, No

 Chait seems off base here. He's been flogging the DeSantis Warning Bell for over a year now, it's kind of his hobby horse. I agree that DeSantis is dangerous, but the US is (thankfully) not Florida. 

Chait's premise is that if DeSantis beats Trump in a primary (doubtful) then Trump will be OK with that, because DeSantis will promise Trump a pardon, and Trump hates Biden just as much. Trump's "rage at Biden" would be half that as his rage at DeSantis, because Trump struggles with object permanence. The DeSantis wound would be fresher and a greater threat to his narcissism. 

Yes, he denied Biden's win, but he would deny DeSantis' win. He cannot lose. It's fundamental to his personality. Chait says he lashed out at Cruz and Rubio before mellowing on them, because he needed them. No. He mellowed on them, because he had asserted his dominance over them, and they had rolled on their backs and peed onto their own bellies.

I'm never quite sure what to make of the criticism of the media for "normalizing" Trump. There's some merit to it, but it has some holes as a theory. This, however, is treating Trump, once again, like he's a "normal" politician. He's simply not. Trump is a fundamentally broken man, and he cannot countenance losing to DeSantis.

These Men Are Nihilists, Donny

 Interesting take on Kevin McCarthy's attempt to become Speaker and leader of a caucus that wants nothing to do with governing. The purpose of legislatures is to debate and pass laws. But the GOP doesn't believe in either debate of passing laws. They won't be able to pass tax cuts, because the Senate won't go along with them. Their main leverage is government shutdowns and debt ceiling hostage crises. But McCarthy won't have enough of a margin in his fractious caucus to ride herd of them.

As Marshall says, the Freedumb Caucus was Trump before Trump was Trump. They were the faction of the GOP that made Steve King a home and tormented John Boehner and Paul Ryan. They have already said they won't vote for McCarthy. Without the support of his full caucus, he's sunk. By my count, the GOP has locked in 218 seats in the House. They likely win CO-3 (sigh), CA-22 and CA-3. CA-13 is a toss-up still. I think Democrats hold on in AK-at large. So they will have between 220 and 222 seats and need a 218 for majority votes. That's three votes and the Freedumbers won't support him.

If you enjoyed the cascading and comic failures of the Boris Johnson-Liz Truss revolving door, you should enjoy watching a party that doesn't believe in government trying to run the government. 

Happy Survive Your Family Week

 To all who celebrate.

Orange Check

 Elon Musk's Carnival of Crazy has just gone to 11, as he's going to let Trump back on Twitter. As Josh Marshall notes, that really shouldn't freak people out. One of the unknowable aspects of Trumpistan is the degree to which coverage of Trump leads to support for Trump. 

I think at this point, with the data from 2020 and 2022 solidifying, we can say that Trump is a simultaneously a drag on Republicans and a motivator for some voters. The degree to which people are simply tired of his bullshit - January 6th and so on - has to be factored into this.

Trump is powerless to restrain himself. He will confess to crimes just because. Since there is now a special prosecutor investigating Trump's crimes surrounding January 6th and stealing documents, Trump could very well starting digging a hole that he can't escape. As Marshall notes, we need to beat Trumpism by beating Trumpism, not silencing it and hoping it goes away.

The Ariana Grande Theory Of Politics

 Solid thesis from Paul Campos that most Americans have an, at best, rudimentary understanding of American politics. This is similar to his knowledge of contemporary pop music. He knows a ton about the music of his youth, but very little about modern popsters - like Grande. Most Americans dip into politics from time to time, like scanning the radio dial and hearing something they kinda like, but whatever.

Or to put it in 2022 terms: the Politics of Vibes.

Obviously, for those who care deeply about politics and believes the old Pericles quote, "Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you," this is maddening. You're a citizen! This shit is important. Democracy depends on the Rational Voter idea of someone who votes to maximize the "good" in their life. 

Yet Trump and Trumpism is a secure harbor for those who really do not give a shit about rational choices. They are voting their feels, their vibes and their priors.

What's more, those of us who are infuriated by these people are exactly like music snobs who cannot for the life of them understand why Ed Sheeran is a huge star. I really like Taylor Swift's music, but her tickets are reselling at insane prices. WTF? How can you not see that Morgan Wallen's version of Cover Me Up is (ironically) a cover and inferior version to Jason Isbell's intensely autobiographical version?

Do liberals look down their noses at conservatives? Yeah, I think we do. But I don't look down my nose at someone who believes in supply side economics. I think they're wrong and evidence has demonstrated conclusively that they are wrong. But I get that they are making a choice of preferred policies. I do, however, look down my nose at someone who thinks Donald Trump is the greatest American in history. That's simply awful.

Twitterdammerung

 People have been saying Twitter was going to die from the moment Elon Musk began to talk about buying it. Apparently it might die this weekend. You have a lot of moments on there now of people saying goodbye to the friends they made online. 

It makes sense that it would fail now, as I finally had a "breakthrough" Tweet that skyrocketed me to 28,300 likes and hundreds of new followers. 

Nancy Smash

 We are awaiting word on Nancy Pelosi's future. I'm certainly split, because Pelosi has been the most effective Speaker in my adult life. Some of this is because the GOP is not capable of being a legislative party. They are interested in tax cuts and stripping government of the ability to function - precisely the opposite of crafting laws and policies that might benefit the country and even the world.

Could Hakeem Jeffries pick up where she left off? I suppose some of Pelosi's success is inherently personal to her. She is extremely effective in whipping votes outside of the DC limelight. Tales of her finding a childhood friend to lobby a wavering member of her caucus suggests this isn't just the inherent desire of the Democrats to pass good policy. However, she is not going to enter a nunnery after stepping down; she can be a resource for a new leadership team.

Perhaps more importantly, Nancy Pelosi is 81 years old; Steny Hoyer is 83; Jim Clyburn is 81 and, of course, Joe Biden is 79. The leadership in the House MUST change via a plan rather than on the fly. I think Pelosi knows this. Whether Hoyer does is unclear. Clyburn sounds like he wants to stay in the #3 slot. 

Elevating Jeffries (52) and Katherine Clark (59) seems like a solid plan to transition away from an aging - if still effective - Speaker. The only argument against it would be that Pelosi does not want to make it seem like the attack on her husband forced her out. That could incentivize more violence.

Whatever the case, Pelosi has earned - more than earned - the right to make her own decision.

Where Do You Even Start?

 Yglesias will occasionally falls face first into the pundit's mistake of assuming that the American electorate behaves as rational actors from an econ textbook. In this doozy of a column, he suggests that Ron DeSantis needs to delineate his policy preferences so that we can better assess his strengths as a candidate.

Who the f*** thinks voters make decisions that way anymore? This weird tic where political writers think that Trump won by moving away from Paul Ryan's GOP austerity budgets is one reason why we keep normalizing the insanity of the GQP. Trump voters - especially but not exclusively Cult 45 - like Trump because he's a bruising culture warrior. They don't really expect the government or politicians to actually do what they say they will do, but they want an avatar in the White House. Someone who hates the same people they hate.

You can't look at the 2020 election - where the GOP platform was basically to bow before Trump's Golden Calf - and suggest that these voters were motivated by policy. The word "vibes" gets thrown around to much, but there is really no other explanation for Trump's rise. The whole point of demagoguery is that it is emotive, not rational.

Is DeSantis basically Paul Ryan with Trump's hand gestures and rhetoric? Maybe. Or more likely, most GOP politicians want power first and while a few hew to important positions and philosophies, most just want power. If that means abandoning Paul Ryan's entitlement cuts - at least while campaigning - then any savvy GOP politician will do that. "Savvy" was a term used to describe the cynical position most press members and many DC figures adopted where actual governing policies are just postures to win elections, as opposed to actually governing the country wisely.

It is also worth noting that plenty of GOP politicians continue to thrust themselves into unpopular positions on issues like abortion, so maybe they will fall behind Rick Scott's draconian plan if they get power. 

The broader point is that GOP politicians - with a few exceptions - have no moral compass, no guidestar beyond whatever Trump says it is at any moment. The idea that DeSantis would offer a bunch of white papers on entitlements is just galactic pundit brain on Yglesias' part.

Here We Go Again

 Trump announced his bid to return to the presidency with a typical rambling, low energy, dark speech about American Carnage. I have to think most Americans - by a substantial margin - are tired of this shit. I know Cult 45 will never abandon him, but normie people just demonstrated in this midterm that they aren't OK with people who attack the basic idea of American democracy. (I heard democracy defined as "a system to execute a peaceful transfer of power." Not bad.)

I do think that - push polls notwithstanding - Trump defeats DeSantis. DeSantis is a whiny little bully, and Trump and his minions will eviscerate him. Plus, as I mentioned, Cult 45 will be there for him. Hopefully, the primary is long and painful.

I also think Biden beats Trump and maybe flips North Carolina. I have zero confidence in the voters of Florida or Texas finally getting wise to his shit. 

If Trump runs, I fear Democrats lose the Senate, unless people start really abandoning him in the face of multiple indictments and revelations of treasonous actions. My hoped for result -Trump loses to DeSantis and starts a third party run, complete with down ballot candidates - seems less likely. 

Still, Trump's schtick is old and tired and he is old and tired. DeSantis has the charisma of a sewer rat, but maybe he takes the old fool out.

GOP House

 It's all over but the shouting for "control" of the House. Looks like the GOP will end up with around 221 seats. Now, I say "control" because it's incredibly unlikely that someone like McCarthy can actually control this burlap sack of mad weasels. The biggest issue with a GOP House is both government shutdowns and potential debt default. I think the narrow margins makes it far more likely that the GOP agrees to raise the debt ceiling, though it would be awesome if Democrats would use the lame duck session to stop this stupid game of fiscal chicken. I do think you can find four Republicans out of 221 who don't want to start a global financial crisis.

Also, Kari Lake lost, bringing the record of election deniers to 0 for the entire freaking election. Meanwhile, I finally became popular on Twitter, right as it's dying.

Sports And Politics

 I don't really have any insights into this, but it was striking to me the last few days how much athletes and athletics are intertwining with politics on the global stage.

Obviously, we have the corrupt and illogical staging of the World Cup beginning next week in Qatar. From the moment it was announced until the moment they hand out the trophy, there has been a strong sense of WTF and disgust. Some of this naturally falls on FIFA, who make the Gambino Crime Family blush, but Qatar is apparently doubling down on being a shitty host and telling people not to protest. Good luck with that. I predict that at some point there will be large scale arrests during the Cup, either from drunken fans or LGBT protests. Well played FIFA

We also have numerous instances of Iranian teams refusing to sing their national anthem. I guess that constitutes a form of protest (as opposed to not knowing the words). There will be some interesting overlap with the Iranian men's team playing the US, England and Wales in the group stage of the World Cup. There's a fair amount of obvious bad blood between Iran and the US and UK. How will THAT play out against the simmering unrest in Iran will be interesting, too.

Meanwhile, on the subject of national anthems, Hong Kong's rugby team played the "wrong" anthem.

I guess to try and tie it together, the world in 2022 remains a brittle, fragile, angry, damaged place. Democracies are certainly dealing with this, but authoritarian regimes cannot by definition be flexible with their population. Sports elicits emotions in us that are hard to control. When they meet it could get combustible.

Speaker McCarthy

 Josh Marshall lays out a compelling argument that a narrow GOP House majority - like one or two seats - would actually be in Democrats' best interest. The basic contours are this: Democrats do not have 52 seats in the Senate, so they won't be able to pass Roe. They will have control of the Senate, so they can confirm judges. But having a batshit insane clown posse "running" the House means that Biden can take credit for what I imagine will be a much improved economy in 2024, without having to answer for not passing Roe or Voting Rights or any other pet issue.

I'm not 100% sure I agree. I wonder if there are 9 GOP cloture votes for Roe to get it off the table after this week. But it does track with Obama and Clinton's reelections.

Nerdcasting

 This fall has seen two fairly prominent fantasy shows and a third less prominent sci-fi show. The fantasy shows - The House of the Dragon and the Rings of Power - are pretty good. I enjoyed watching them. The sci-fi show - Andor - is in my opinion, the best thing to ever come out of the Star Wars cinematic universe. 

Now, I think the competition isn't great. Star Wars is a cultural force, but most of the movies and TV shows are pitched to kids. The godawful prequels seem entirely created to show of Lucas' new F/X and sell merchandise to kids under 15. Baby Yoda is adorable, but...c'mon.

Andor, by contrast, is the first Star Wars project where you can imagine people having sex (it opens in a brothel). Rather than just starting off from the presumption that "Empire Bad/Rebels Good," it demonstrates with emotional force just how cruel the Empire is. They aren't the Bad Guys because they were scary uniforms - they are genuinely evil in a bureaucratic way. Additionally, the main Good Guys are incredibly complex characters. Stellan Skarsgard is great in everything, but he gave a monologue this week that was brilliant all the way from the writing to the delivery. 

Rumor has it that Andor isn't being watched as much as bullshit fan-service like The Book of Boba Fett. That is the loss of everyone who enjoys good sci-fi.

Remember How Biden Was Always Screwing Up?

 All the Kewl Kidz were saying that Biden's pre-election message of "democracy is on the ballot" was a terrible blunder. He should have offered a policy package on inflation and crime. 

Anyway, so far every election denier running for Governor or Secretary of State has lost. If Katie Hobbs holds on then they will be 0 for '22. Especially in Governor's races, the focus on electoral legitimacy and "democracy" - exactly the tactic behind Biden's closing message - turned out to be smart.

Once again, the Kewl Kidz need to realize that the Irish pol from Scranton absolutely "get" politics.

Is This The End?

 Jon Chait lays out the case that Ron DeSantis could oust Trump as the head of the Trumpist movement (aka the GOP). It's a fairly compelling case, but one based on a fundamentally unprovable assumption: Trumpists are loyal to the GOP as an institution.

Beginning Tuesday night, various Rightist media outlets, led by Fox, began to note the same things they noted in 2016 and January 2021: Trump is a problem. In favor of Chait's argument is the fact that in 2016, the GOP was hopelessly splintered among a host of candidates, which allowed Trump to skate by with 35%-40% of the vote in each primary. A binary choice between Trump and DeSantis would deprive him of that ability. 

He argues less persuasively that after the insurrection, the GOP briefly abandoned him, only to return because to turn on Trump was to acknowledge Biden won. That doesn't really work for me, because GOP elites KNEW Biden had won. The issue - as always - is that the GOP establishment is afraid of losing those WWC voters who respond to Trump in ways that are both mystifying and strong. Cult 45 is a real thing. There is an argument that they have a figure to turn to in 2024 that they lacked in 2021, but that same dynamic of not wanting to alienate Trump's cultists isn't going away.

Max Weber wrote about what he called "charismatic legitimacy." This referred to a leader who represented an idea of some sort that gave him or her special standing. Famously, Hitler and Mandela both enjoyed charismatic legitimacy - it's neither good nor bad. Trump is the manifestation of White Grievance. People can't understand why Trumpists are drawn to him in really perversely devout ways, but if he's understood in terms of the avatar of White Grievance, then it makes more sense. Trump's actual words and deeds are less important than his symbolic stature.

Weber also said that charismatic legitimacy is inherently ephemeral. Charismatic figures die or fade away. What had to happen was what he termed "the routinization of charisma." This is why Lenin could die, they could display his embalmed body and create the "Marxist-Leninist" state. Same deal with Mao or Khomeini. You create a cult of personality that endures beyond the charismatic figure. Chait argues that this process is already under way:

To be sure, that does not mean (DeSantis) can convince Republicans voters he can out-strongman Trump. He definitely lacks the former president’s skills as a showman and performer. But the idea Trump’s personality cult can’t be replicated misses the fact Republicans build personality cults as a matter of course. Ronald Reagan was a cult figure. Two decades ago, George W. Bush created an intense following — conservative organs were selling coin and bronze busts of his likeness. (This was all wiped from memory when the conservative movement decided Bush was a liability and retroactively decided he was a fake conservative all along.) The emotional bond between Trump and the party base may be stronger than these previous versions, but the base is filled with authoritarian personalities who are habituated to finding new leaders to follow.

The flaw in this is, of course, that Bush's personality cult did not come at the expense of Reagan's. As Chait notes, Trump's cultish following is more cultish than those two who were fundamentally normal politicians in ways that Trump isn't. That's precisely WHY Trump has a hold on a constituency that wasn't a strong participant in politics prior to his arrival.

The single best outcome of this possible fight between DeSantis and Trump is that the GOP establishment manages to oust him in a bruising, nasty primary fight that leaves the perpetually aggrieved Trump furious. Trump then launches his own Trump/MAGA Party that includes candidates for the House and Senate. The 2024 Senate map is unkind to Democrats, including defending seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. If - say - Joe Manchin or Jon Tester only tops out at 45% of the vote, while the Republican gets 35% and the MAGA candidate gets 30%, you get six more years of that Senate seat.

Trump has always been a match throwing arsonist in a room full of open gasoline cans. A decisive break with the institutional GOP that leads to a nihilistic MAGA party bid would lead to consolidated Democratic gains in 2024 and the long term alienation of those WWC/MAGA voters from the institutional GOP.

One can hope...

UPDATE: That didn't take long.

The Senate

 Jon Ralston is the "dean of Nevada politics" and he thinks that Catherine Cortez Mastro will likely pull out a narrow win in Nevada, based on the currently uncounted ballots being primarily from Las Vegas, where she's win closing to 60% of the vote. 

Mark Kelly still looks most likely to hold on and win in Arizona, which gets Democrats to 50 seats, plus Kamala Harris' tiebreaking vote. 

Which SHOULD mean that the Georgia referendum won't have an impact on control of the Senate - there won't be enough Democrats to end the filibuster - and hopefully the people of Georgia will decide that embarrassing themselves by electing a benighted fool like Herschel Walker isn't worth dragging themselves to the polls.

51-49 is better than 50-50 for a number of reasons. First, Senate terms are for 6 years and the 2024 map has Democrats defending Senate seats in Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin and West Virginia, with precious few opportunities to pick off Republican seats.

Secondly, the dynamic of 50-50 allowed Manchin and Sinema to play off each other. There is a slim but existing chance that Democrats improbably hold on to the House by the skin of their teeth. If so, Democratic leadership can negotiate with Manchin OR Sinema for the 50th vote.

In the end, the narrow losses in North Carolina and Wisconsin's Senate races hurt for precisely this six year cycle reason. Still, being able to fill judgeships and pass (part of) the federal budget is critical.

Could be BS

 There's this, but if this data is from exit polls, it might be BS.

I'm a bit skeptical of the collapse among White Gen-Xers, because I could see them making extensive use of early voting. However, those are pretty stark numbers for the party of Old White People.

In Other Possibly Good News...

 Looks like Russia might be abandoning Kherson. I say "might" because there is some real question as to whether they are trying to bate the Ukrainians into a trap, but let's presume they are actually making the sound decision to retreat across the Dnipro.

While this will simplify some aspects of keeping Russian troops supplied, it will bring Ukrainian HIMARs within reach of the supply bottleneck where Crimea meets the rest of Ukraine.

Allowing Ukraine to establish a defensive line on the Dnipro could also free up troops for an assault in Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

Disaster Averted, Opportunity Missed

 Looks like I may have been right yesterday. On the one hand, there was no Red Wave. America remains an intensely divided country and that was demonstrated in the midterm. If - and at this point it's still unclear - Democrats can hold on to their Senate seats in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona then they will have a one seat majority. Even losing one of those seats will mean Biden can appoint judges and executive branch officials. However, losing an opportunity to flip Wisconsin (still possible, but...yeah) and North Carolina means that you are stuck with two execrable Senators from states that could, theoretically, elect a Democrat. In fact, I think Democrats need to give up on Florida and work on North Carolina as the next "purple" state.

The House looks like it will tilt to the GOP, but it will not be the wipe out many feared. In some ways it doesn't matter, as the difference between a 4 seat and 40 seat GOP majority isn't especially relevant. With a small majority, the House might not force a debt default, which would be, ya know, a good thing.

The Red Wave that was going to sweep out people like NY governor Kathy Hochul never appeared. In fact, Democrats may do pretty decently in gubernatorial races, especially if Katie Hobbs can hold on to beat the frightening Kari Lake.

In August, I saw a potential to add 3-4 Senate seats and hold the House. The GOP has offered no plan to deal with the very real issues of inflation, crime and energy prices. They shouldn't even be competitive. However, we will take our wins where we can. Plus, Lauren Boebert might lose! 

My Prediction

 I think Democrats lose the House, but it's not a total rout, as GOP gerrymandering has reduced the number of swing seats held by Democrats. The Senate remains in Democratic hands...I think, I hope. However, I can definitely see a scenario where rankly unqualified candidates like Oz and Walker win. The idea of a thermostatic election that swings from one party to another is predicated on there being enough non-aligned voters. Turnout, too, is a huge issue in the midterms. Can the Dems get enough pissed off women to the polls?

I also predict a messy night of returns. I'm very much considering turning off the news and my phone and going to see a movie or something. I don't want to watch that fucking needle at the NY Times crush my hopes for functional governance.

At any rate, Mandela Barnes and John Fetterman will stop hitting me up for money, so at least there's that.

Crime

 My gut says if we lose the Senate tomorrow it will be because a fear of crime drove enough suburban women in PA, GA, AZ and OH to forget Dobbs and worry about faceless criminals.

As Scott Lemieux notes (in citing Radley Balko) the actual data on crime is mixed and confusing. Murders went up from 2020-21 but they are trending downwards. They are still higher than 2019. Other forms of crime are NOT up, despite the vibes that they are. (We just exchanged texts with our son who is in Savannah who saw a likely drug deal outside his house. That "feels" like crime is increasing.) With Fox and other news sources blaring crime stories, the actual data doesn't matter.

What is interesting is that the perception - not the reality, but the perception - is that Democrats slashed funding to the police. Didn't happen outside Portland and Minneapolis. There does seem to be some instances of police forces being understaffed, but there was no concerted effort to make that happen. In fact, the Biden Administration spend MORE money on cops.

Yet we will likely get a Republican House and possibly Senate because people just naturally trust the party of January 6th to be the law and order party.

Tomorrow

 Ugh. I don't know.

I think the politics of "thermostatic" elections, whereby the independent voter throws our politics into chaos because of vibes, is stupid but real. I know that inflation is not a policy problem and that crime isn't a Democratic problem, but it will likely lead to robust GOP turnout. I don't know how Dobbs and January 6th will put a dent in that.

If Democrats manage to hold on to even a 50-50 Senate, I think we have to chalk that up as a win. The GOP nominated terrible candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina and Arizona. Ideally that means Democrats hold on to the ability to staff the Executive and Judiciary branches, but I'm despondent, frankly.

As Paul Campos writes:

Of course this is what reactionary centrists have been saying forever, and it’s easy enough to pick apart the bill of particulars: no elected Democrat above the level of a Berkeley city council member has advocated anything like defunding the police, crime isn’t actually up, national Democrats don’t actually favor more liberal immigration policies, inflation is an international phenomenon at present that has almost nothing to do with any Democratic policies, trans panic is a completely made up issue, “valuing hard work” is just code for there are too many colored people voting for Democrats etc. etc.

Just vote. It's all you can do.

Trump v DeSantis

 Keep an eye on the burgeoning feud between DeSantis and Trump. The best we can hope for is that Trump signals for enough of his cultists to sit out the Florida election and Crist wins. Then DeSantis and Trump square off in LoserFest 2024. DeSantis would have been a uniquely horrible human being if it wasn't for Trump warping our metrics for what counts as an awful person in politics.

Rooting for injuries.

Hey, God? Are You There?

 Maybe it's time to come down and smite some assholes.

Pretty Much

 This nugget from Martin Longman sums it up:

The problem the Democrats have right now is really not that they’re doing an inadequate job of explaining the threat to democracy if the Republicans win, nor is it that their platform is too partisan to attract independents and conservatives. Their problem is that they’re in charge at a time when people are very unhappy. Voters tend to express their unhappiness by punishing incumbents. A winning strategy has to convince a lot of people that the Republicans are the source of their unhappiness, and that’s a heavy lift.

The Stakes

 Yglesias lays out what is at stake next Tuesday. I mostly agree, but would make some distinctions.

At the Federal level, maintaining control of the Senate is critical and still possible. Republicans will not confirm either judges or executive branch positions if Dems can't hold the chamber. Ideally, they add to their margins by defending Arizona, Georgia and Nevada (in ascending order of difficulty) and add to it in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida or Wisconsin. If Dems lose the House, we will be faced with the usual Republican fuckery surrounding the debt ceiling and government shut downs, but whatever, I guess. Stupid business as usual.

At the state level, electing election-deniers and Big Lie proponents is a real long term threat to the integrity of the 2024 election. Electing some Big Lie Secretary of State in Arizona won't "secure the border" or stop inflation, it will simply imperil democracy in this country.

Notably, Yglesias has a poll that asks what each side will do if they assume power. People say if Democrats gain control they will pass a national version of Roe. and increase Social Security benefits Yes, they will. They also say that - despite having the power to do so for two years and NOT doing it - they will "open the border" and cut police funding. The last two are solid Fox News talking points that have zero impact on actual governing realities. 

Meanwhile, if Republicans take over people think they will increase US energy production. No, they won't because we already ARE increasing energy production. They probably won't try to pass an national abortion ban, because they know it's unpopular and Biden will veto it anyway. Will they follow through on vague threats to impeach Biden? I'm guessing yes. Will they try and overturn Democratic wins in elections? Absolutely.

What's infuriating is that this sort of coverage is largely absent from the media. We get endless stories abut inflation, which is real, but also we are in a period of robust economic growth (plus a war and post-Covid disruptions). For many people, I'm guessing inflation is a nuisance rather than a crisis, but the non-stop drumbeat of inflation stories makes it feel like we are spiraling out of control.

Biden can give a speech talking about the very real threats to America's democracy and all the media can offer is theater criticism and the fact that he didn't mention inflation.

If democracy dies in this country, our news media will be the pallbearers at the funeral.

Has It Started?

 A "pre-winter" offensive by Ukrainian forces has seemed inevitable since they entered an operational pause after the September offensive. Ukraine is now reporting significant Russian losses in men and armored vehicles in the last 24 hours. This might just be propaganda - how would they know they've killed 800 Russian soldiers? - or it might be the beginnings of the late-Fall campaign. 

The seaborne drone attack on Sevastopol could have been designed to drive the Russian navy away from the Ukrainian coast, so that it could not provide cover around Kherson, for instance. 

Also, Russia has re-entered the grain deal that allows for Ukrainian grain to be exported under UN auspices. Turkey appeared to be the guarantor of the ships' safety, which would have meant any Russian attack on the grain shipments would have risked direct military contact with NATO. Instead, Russia backed down. At most critical junctures, Russia has been careful to avoid crossing NATO's redlines. Worth keeping in mind as we debate Russia's nuclear threshold.  

Elon

 This is a wonderful takedown of Elon Musk's Twitter takeover. (This isn't bad either.) It's so obviously accurate that Twitter exists in a tiny niche of simmering resentment that it's impossible Musk didn't know what he was getting in to. In fact, it seems as if precisely the awfulness of much of Twitter was what appealed to him in the first place.

The fact that he paid a ridiculous amount of money for an unprofitable company that cannot possibly be anything other than what it is makes this whole thing hilarious. 

I've mentioned in the past that I've had my share of interactions with students who see Musk as a sort of tech-messiah, a real life Tony Stark. I never saw it. As far as I know, Musk is not, in fact, some engineering genius. He has bachelor's degrees in physics and economics. He's a venture capitalist of the sort that are thick on the ground in Silicon Valley. Silicon Valley, in fact, is perhaps better understood as a hub of venture capitalism rather than technological innovation.

While is Musk is undoubtedly "smart," he is also a man cosseted from a young age by immense wealth. He grew up within the comforts of apartheid South Africa to the son of a wealthy emerald mine owner. That's not his "fault" but we've seen repeatedly recently - with Trump the Platonic Ideal of this - that wealthy people, especially men, are just wired differently because they have been so insulated from the typical consequences most of us have to face.

So, we have Trump - a pampered scion of a wealthy slumlord - becoming a celebrity despite running multiple business into bankruptcy who decides this is sufficient life experience to become president. The resulting shitshow may yet break American democracy. 

Musk, meanwhile, has bought into his own hype about being the next Nicola Tesla. In fact, he's the next Thomas Edison, a man who had a few good ideas, but mostly stole the hard work of those who worked for him. Edison, however, never made as bone-headed a move as buying Twitter. That Musk thought he could somehow make Twitter "work" is a prime example of Wealth-Induced Hubris.

Maybe his fanbois are right and this enfant terrible will make Twitter something glorious and profitable. Or maybe human nature remains human nature and he will fail, because he does not understand people much at all.

Good News?

 "Lula" (Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva) has beaten Jair "Trump With an Actual Tan" Bolsonaro. The election was far too close (50.9% to 49.1%) and that only means that Bolsonaro can embrace a Trumpist rejection of the election results.

On January 6th, there were too many members of law enforcement and the military who were either too slow to respond or too slow to take the threat seriously, but for the most part, senior law enforcement and military figures were on the right side of history. Brazil's democracy is far newer and more fragile and Bolsonaro has closer ties to the military than Trump ever did.

Hopefully, the Brazilian military does the right thing and keeps this vile man from usurping power.

Worth keeping an eye on.

What My Students Just Taught Me

 Every year, I have my Comp Gov students write a paper on the electoral systems of either France, South Africa or Japan. They are basically asked to see if these elections are democratically legitimate and functioning as intended by their design. Short answer: France and South Africa are democratically legitimate and Japan's elections are kinda sketchy.

I just read the papers on France and the students overwhelmingly argued that France's elections weren't democratically legitimate because when two unpopular candidates - like Macron and Le Pen - advance to the second round, people are pissed about their choices. Typically, the French vote FOR someone in the first round of their elections and AGAINST someone in the second, but in that first round, they get to choose from a robust slate of candidates - usually over 10. So, you can vote for the Green Party in round one, but then compromise and vote for Macron in the second.

The mindset that people might not like the result is an interesting one, and it was not a position students took even a few years back. On some level, this is politics as retail activity. I ordered a specific item and if I don't get a specific item, I get my money back. The idea that I might have to compromise doesn't enter in to modern consumerism. You can find just about anything online and have it at your door in a few days. 

That's not how politics works. 

Here's the thing: I like Joe Biden well enough. I think he's a decent president and pretty good guy with some very human flaws. That Obama fellow - great guy, great politician, decent policy chops. But I will never have a Biden or Obama flag displayed in front of my house. That's just...weird AF. 

You see the opposite of this, of course, with the Trump cultists. His flaws don't exist and supporting him becomes a litmus test. However, you can also see it when you talk to young people about Biden running again in 2024. He's an old fogey (true); he's not a charismatic communicator (true); he doesn't address things young people care about (false). The first two are "vibes" the last is a misconception that arises from those vibes.

Biden isn't a consumer brand. He's just an old school Irish pol. And that's fine, unless you need him to be your best friend and messiah. And that's just weird.

The Attempted Assassination of Nancy Pelosi

 Paul Campos is right that the media framing of the attack on Paul Pelosi is better understood as an attempted assassination of the Speaker of the House and calling it an attempted murder hides what's really going on here. It will be natural for GOP leaders to dismiss the guy who did it as a mentally ill person, and there is no doubt that he is not 100% rational or mentally stable. The problem is that the constant ad hominem demonizing of Democrats finds really fertile soil among the conspiratorially minded fringes and brings them into the GOP fold.

GOP leaders have (for the most part) condemned the attack, but they will deflect from their role in creating the conditions that led to it. The GOP's transition to the GQP seems pretty complete.

Campos notes Robert Paxton's definition of fascism in his piece:

A form of political behavior marked by obsessive preoccupation with community decline, humiliation, or victimhood and by compensatory cults of unity, energy, and purity, in which a mass-based party of committed nationalist militants, working in uneasy but effective collaboration with traditional elites, abandons democratic liberties and pursues with redemptive violence and without ethical or legal restraints goals of internal cleansing and external expansion.

That's pretty much the GOP. 

If there is a hidden reservoir of Democratic voters who aren't being picked up in the polls, and Democrats overperform next week, the GQP will say that this was a "false flag" attack to bolster support for Socialists. Bank on it.