Martin Longman Is Bummed

 He points out that he (and others, including yours truly) predicted that governing with the "trifecta" was still going to be difficult, because of the filibuster and Joe Manchin. Right. In fact, I think the problem is that Biden actually DID accomplish quite a bit, but his recent efforts on BBB and voting rights have failed. That erases whatever memories we have of his remarkably successful first few months.

I've argued that specific legislative victories are not the key to winning elections, and I stand by that. Biden's approval ratings are low because the pandemic won't go away, and people are generally bummed. The economy is actually pretty good right now and likely to stay strong. There is the possibility of Ukraine blowing up, I guess, but I feel like this is more Putin's brinksmanship than a prelude to full scale war.

In short, I remain bullish on the midterms for two reasons.

First, it's a long way to November. I anticipate that - barring new variants - Covid will become largely endemic by spring. We are already treating it as an endemic disease here on campus, because we are entirely vaccinated. Kids get sick, they go home. Just like with the flu. If the pandemic truly wanes away into background noise, people will feel better about things and they will have six months to change their minds.

Second, the GOP's gerrymandering and turnout advantages might be tapped out. The electoral maps do not appear to wipe out Democratic hopes to hold the House. It still is the most likely outcome, but see point #1. I think we will see major indictments up and down the ranks of former Trump Administration figures. Trump will explode and that - combined with the perverse incentives created by GOP vote suppression - could be enough to drive Democratic voters to the polls. To do this, Biden and Democrats will need to secure those suburban votes that they won in 2018 and 2020. The Senate map looks decently favorable, again if the pandemic can recede. 

Will a GOP wave happen? Possibly. But to capitulate now is bad.