The Riddle Wrapped In A Mystery Inside An Enigma

 Churchill's famous description of Russia largely holds true today. Because decision making in the Kremlin - whether tsar, general secretary or president-for-life - is so centralized, it is effectively opaque. We have no idea what Putin wants, because he's very careful to avoid giving clear clues as to what he wants.

At this point, Putin clearly needs some sort of concession or apparent victory. Could it simply be a variation of North Korea's PAY ATTENTION TO ME foreign policy? Putin has got the West scrambling, ha ha, look at the West scrambling. Made you look! It's not impossible that he will declare that he has won and go home.

Or perhaps he needs something more tangible. He has effectively annexed some of eastern Ukraine with paramilitaries and no so covert support. He could formally annex those territories. Or he could move into the provinces of southeast Ukraine and create a "land bridge" to the Crimea, which he annexed a few years ago.

If Putin attempts to march on Kyiv and install a puppet government, I think that it could go very poorly for him and Russia, and not just because of sanctions. Ukrainians are not interested in being ruled by Moscow. The history of oppression is not limited to the Holodomor. Neither is that bleak moment forgotten in Ukraine. Ukrainians are a real pain in the ass to invaders, and we need to remember a fundamental truth: wars are fought between economies as much as they are fought between armies. The Russian economy is not terribly strong. However powerful it's military is, their ability to sustain an army of occupation - which is what will be necessary - will be hampered by the overall weakness of their economy. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a similar moment of exporting violence to cover economic weakness and it is one of the primary factors in the collapse of the Soviet system. What's more, I think Putin is aware of this.

The problem with authoritarian decision making is that Putin might not be aware of this. He could easily have talked himself into his own bullshit about Ukrainians not really wanting to fight for their national survival. This is the Russian equivalent of the Bush Administration creating an "information silo" that suggested invading Iraq would be a cakewalk and we would be "greeted as liberators."

The question is simply whether Putin has an exit strategy for war. There is also the matter of the "Olympic Truce," which is supposed to dissuade countries from attacking each other during the Olympics. Putin used the last Beijing Olympics to attack Georgia for many of the same reasons he's threatening to attack Ukraine.

In the end, I fear Putin has created a situation where he has to do something. Whether that's a wise decision or not is secondary to the logic of trying to be a regional bully.