Hell Yeah, Joe

 Biden says the Equal Rights Amendment has been ratified. Lays down a marker. Now the GOP has to explain why they want to "repeal" it.

Biden's Valedictory

 Biden's Farewell Address last night consciously echoed American history. There were nods to Washington's Farewell Address, Eisenhower's and the entire Progressive Period. Biden's stabs at oligarchy are accurate and important, and I think it's important as an historical document and a "marker" against future action.

The text of his remarks - I didn't watch it - is good. He accurately lays out the perils of the new "malefactors of great wealth." I think similarly, Josh Marshall and Will Norris are onto something when the note that Democrats should become more vocal champions of the "Gig Economy."

However, my choice not to watch it isn't just a facet of my long standing aversion to "political theater." Biden is a shitty speaker at this point in his career, and that has to be part of the discussion of his legacy and the 2024 election. During his presidency, we were able to see actual results that pointed to a pretty impressive grasp of the legislative process and the dynamics of Congress. He got a lot done. However, during that same period, he was simply unable to be a forceful advocate for those policies.

It's always risky to be saying that the economy is in great shape, if people think the economy is in bad shape; you look "out of touch." However, the real accomplishments of the Biden Administration never really become tangible to people. Biden lacked the easy wonkish explanatory ability of Bill Clinton or the soaring rhetoric of Barack Obama, even on his best days.

When Harris took over in July, opinions about the economy had largely been locked in place. I don't think she could do much about that. Having the bully pulpit more or less unoccupied from 2021-2024 wasn't a big help though. Again, I'm skeptical that rhetoric would have saved the day. Ultimately, it was the slow movement of the Justice Department to move against Trump that could doom us. And even if they had prosecuted him more vigorously, Biden or Harris probably lose to some creature like Ron DeSantis, given the anti-incumbent moment we are in.

Still, Biden's invisibility during much of his presidency was helpful to get stuff through the "Secret Congress" but it was bad politics, and it should be acknowledged as such.

Facts And Narratives

 Democrats - indeed most incumbent parties in the past few years - labored under the gulf between the actual facts and what the narrative was in people's minds. "Everyone knew" the economy was bad, and in fact it was bad for about 16 months, with inflation really punching people in the guts. One of the usual targets of post-defeat circular firing squads is to focus on "message" which I think is sort of besides the point, as message won't counter the priors that people hold. "Republicans are good for business and therefore the economy" is one of the most pernicious falsehoods that people cling to. Trying to argue against that is tough.

Still, Democrats need a "message" and it sure seems like attacking the new broligarchy is a great start. The first Progressive Era targeted the "malefactors of great wealth", as middle class Americans made common cause with more radical actors to reshape American governance. With space travel becoming the provenance of two multi-billionaires and the Billionaires Boy Club increasingly sucking up to Trump, a populist anti-billionaire message would work. People already associate the Republicans with business elites, the point is to make the business elites the problem. The fact that Obama had to bail out the banks muddied those waters. 

Time to make them clear.

California Aid

 The wildfires that struck - and continue to strike - residential areas of Los Angeles are already becoming a political football for the atrocious people making up the Republican Party. Routine threats are now attached to relief bills. As Paul Krugman points out, Red States are the ones on the receiving end of most federal tax dollars and an unusually large percentage of federal disaster relief. At no times have Democrats threatened NOT to give disaster relief to Florida for all the hurricanes it faces, even as Florida and southern Republicans threaten to withhold aid from California.

The point Krugman makes is not to say that Red States shouldn't get aid. The point is that California is the main source of federal revenue and what's more, providing aid to fellow citizens is exactly what a national government does. It's not wrong to provide aid; it wrong to withhold it. It tears at the fabric of our common national project.

But isn't that the point of withholding aid? To sic Americans at each others' throats? Isn't that the heart and soul of MAGA?

Republicans Won't Be Able To Legislate

 Martin Longman has done good work explaining why the GOP's legislative strategy of using reconciliation to enact their agenda and do all sorts of sketchy stuff is unlikely to pass.

The margins in the House and the deals that Mike Johnson has made with some of his more rabid members have really boxed him in. Also, Trump has said he won't cut Medicare, because even that tapioca brained buffoon knows that's political suicide. Even if the GOP could find the votes to kill Medicaid, I have my doubts that the Senate will go along with that. Medicaid is hugely important to millions of Americans - many of whom voted for Trump. 

Meanwhile, even tax cuts - the one unifying idea between MAGA and what remains of normal Republicans - will be hard to pass, with many GOP members wanting to bring back SALT exemptions. 

Over all of this hangs the debt ceiling. Traditionally, Republican Speakers have relied on Democratic votes to raise the debt ceiling. Traditionally, that has led to some horse trading. The question is: What should Democrats demand in exchange for a debt ceiling increase? I would think something significant.

If there is a debt ceiling crisis, though, I would imagine the Trump-friendly courts will simply decide that the 14th Amendment applies and the debt ceiling is unconstitutional. In the interim, that will screw up world markets quite a bit. A debt ceiling crisis, followed by eliminating the debt ceiling would be a perfect outcome for Democrats, as the debt ceiling is a loaded gun that Republicans routinely waive around.

In the end, the horrors that are coming will be coming from the White House and the various idiots and crooks Trump is going to staff the government with. It's going to be very hard to actually pass legislation, including budgets.

Bootlickers

 Recently, Mark Zuckerberg decided to end Meta's "woke" policies of being nice to its employees and respectful of the truth. Marshall says this decision won't age well. These companies that have bent over backwards for Trump and MAGA are making a pretty risky gamble that Trump's plurality of the popular vote represents some sort of trend, rather than a last gasp of some culture war crap. Yes, the identity politics of the left got out of hand, but that message seems to have been actually received.  Meanwhile, the GOP seems hellbent on doing some crazy shit.

Now, much of that won't wash, but even trying to do it will elicit a backlash. Again, if Trump does what he says he wants to do, he will wreck the Goldilocks Economy.

What's more, all this Real Murica bullshit evades the fact that the coastal elites are what make America great. It is, in fact, America's constant work at trying to become a better version of itself that makes us the dynamic power in the world. It's also why some of the most egregious examples of "woke" are likely going to go away. 

The general gestalt of America - namely that we are a really nice people - isn't going away. With Trump "cruelty is the point" but that's why he's been largely unpopular, despite the partisan advantages he enjoys. 

Companies that decide to be cruel to their employees - and that's at the heart of what a lot of these companies are doing - will find it hard to retain those employees. Car companies don't have LGBTQ people in their ads to be "woke", they do it to sell cars. 

What's more, I certainly hope if Trump follows through on his vindictiveness and punishes his foes, that the backlash is immediate and sincere. Even more so, though, I hope that Democrats don't fall into the Merrick Garland trap in 2028, should they regain power in the face of oligarchic support for Republicans.

As these techbro libertarians pick a side, let's remember that when we hold the levers of power again.

Trump's Terrible Four

 There are four terrible nominees that Trump has put forward: Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, Kash Patel and RFK, Jr.  The first three are the most immediately dangerous, as they will have a large voice in national security matters at a time of international unrest.

That doesn't mean that RFK isn't really dangerous, too.

Equilibrium

 As we come to the eve of Trumpistan 2, I think it's important to maintain one's emotional and psychological equilibrium.  Let's be clear: Things are going to get worse for quite a few people, though probably not as bad as a worst case scenario might suggest. But, no, Trump is not going to invade Greenland or Canada.

What's more, the only reason he drops this illiterate and illogical rants is to drive the narrative. He's not going to reduce prices, like he promised. (If prices fall, it's because we will be in a depression.) If you are talking about his latest stupid utterance, you are playing his game. What's more, the news media are totally banking on you watching their shows as they breathlessly report on the latest shit to dribble from Trump's piehole. "What could this mean?"  It means you're a dupe.

This also, most likely, applies to the horrible things Trump and Republicans want to do via Project 2025 and other malefactors. Will they try and deny health insurance to millions of Americans? Yes, they will. Will they succeed? I think Martin Longman is correct when he points out that the Republican legislative strategy seems hopelessly naïve. This is not a functional legislative majority, especially in the House. The current House is 219-215. There will be an election to replace Matt Gaetz, and it will almost certainly be a MAGA idiot. However, Stefanik and Waltz will leave soon for the Executive Branch, and that gets you to 217-215, before the special elections. 

Mike Johnson has almost no leeway to lose votes, and he will certainly lose votes. The cross pressures on the GOP caucus are legion. Read Longman's summary, as it covers the important stuff. 

As you hear of the next horrible thing "Republicans are planning to do" take a deep breath. Yes, it might come to pass, in which case, things will get worse, people will get upset and Democrats re-take the House in 2026. Or just as likely, it fails. They hammer together some tax cuts, screw over the budget and deregulate some business and it's 1990 again. Breathe.  It's going to be a journey.

What Happened?

 I've been reluctant to weigh in on the "Why did that asshole win again?" debate, because the data can be messy for a long time. My operating theory of the election was that there were no or few Biden>Trump voters. So, how does 2020 compare to 2024?

Arizona
Harris got about 100,000 fewer votes than Biden. Trump got 100,000 more than 2020. 

Georgia
Harris actually got more votes than Biden. Roughly 60,000 more. Trump got 200,000 more than 2020.

Michigan
Harris got about 70,000 fewer votes than Biden. Trump got about 150,000 more than 2020.

Nevada
Harris got about 2000 more votes than Biden. Trump got about 70,000 more than 2020.

North Carolina
Harris got about 30,000 more votes than Biden. Trump got about 120,000 more than 2020.

Pennsylvania
Harris got about 30,000 fewer voter than Biden. Trump got about 160,000 more than before.

Wisconsin
Harris got about 35,000 more votes than Biden. Trump got 85,000 more than 2020.

Write me a tidy narrative about that. Harris matched or improved Biden's numbers in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin. You can argue that Georgia and North Carolina share demographic similarities, but Nevada and Wisconsin are more similar to Arizona and Michigan, respectively. 

Meanwhile, some DNC delegate on Twitter says that the following numbers of Democrats stayed home:

Arizona: 282,000 Georgia: 269,000 Michigan: 312,000 Nevada: 35,000 North Carolina: 234,000 Pennsylvania: 363,000 Wisconsin: 159,000

But I'm not seeing that in the raw data. 

The fact is that Trump improved on his 2020 numbers. He also improved on his 2016 numbers.

The American electorate looked at Trump's felony convictions (or didn't); they looked at his felony indictments; they looked at January 6th; they looked at the debate debacle...and they came out to vote for him in ways they hadn't before. A campaign without a normal GOTV operation absolutely got out the vote.

The good news is that low propensity voters seemed to make up Trump's victory. If - or more accurately when - things go sideways, they will blame Trump, the same way they "blamed" Biden for an almost comically good economic recovery. When Trump exits the stage, especially if it comes on the heels of some sort of economic or other catastrophe, it's tough to see the next generation Trump. 

Silicon Death Valley

 Josh Marshall uncovered what might be the genesis or at least the feedback loop of Trump's Greenland nonsense. As you might expect, it has some link to his new friends in Muskylvania. The techno broligarchy is now calling so much of the tune, because of Musk's corruption of Twitter (and potentially Zuckerberg's corruption of Meta). With Musk now the Grima Wormtongue of Donald Trump, the whispers of this idea of stateless living now has a proponent - I guess - in the White House. My guess is that Trump really has no interest in creating a libertarian non-state state. 

This really brings us back to the techno sociopathy of Silicon Valley. Let's go back and remember that Musk, Peter Thiel, Peter Sacks and the like are not engineers, though they likely understand more engineering than most. They are venture capitalists who have made a killing off the "next" technology. This has created a massive, billionaire fueled Dunning-Kruger effect, whereby they think because they acquired Tesla or built PayPal that they are the finest humanity has to offer. 

It's Social Darwinism with ones and zeroes. 

Like Social Darwinism, this movement if fundamentally un-democratic. Since most states at least give a façade of democratic legitimacy (the People's Republic of Korea), the norm of democratic government is fairly hard to escape, and if you wanted to escape it in 2025, that means, well, Russia or North Korea, which isn't a great place to be.

As a result, you have these techbros masturbating to fantasies of creating their own states. Or, again, anti-states. Musk doesn't want to be the Neil Armstrong of Mars, he wants to be the Cortez. He wants to live on Mars, surrounded by sex robots and other drones who will keep him alive in a simulacrum of imperial splendor, without having all those pesky human slaves to keep an eye on. 

Look, states were created in Europe as a successor to empires, then exported that idea through their own imperialism. The reason why the rest of the world kept states even as they expelled Europeans, was because states just work. 

I do hope that these tech weirdos go off and live in their libertarian non-state somewhere. 

The rest of us would be better off.

Carter's Eulogies

 Heather Cox Richardson does her usual eloquent job of summarizing the words of those who said goodbye to Jimmy Carter yesterday. The striking contrast was, of course, to Donald Trump. Trump has ultimately been "more successful" than Carter by virtue of his re-election. However, it is difficult to imagine the same homilies being delivered at his funeral. I don't think Dubya Bush or Obama will speak on his behalf. It will be closed affair that signal the end of the degraded politics of his era. Carter will instead remain that "road not taken" when it comes to compassionate leadership, especially on matters of energy and peace: two issues that drive the world today.

As Trump tweets out slurs and insults towards California, even as it burns, there can't be a starker reminded that "character is destiny." Carter's character could not overcome his circumstances as president, but it shown afterwards. Trump's character has facilitated his "will to power" but it will also lead the country into an orgy of corruption and self-dealing. When he finally dies, that will be his legacy.

Important Persepective

 Josh Marshall is 100% right about this. All this Greenland/Panama/Canada stuff? It's not going to happen. It could conceivably happen, in the same conceivable way that Korea and Japan go to war over shipping lanes. Possible? Yeah. But very, very unlikely. Koreans and the Japanese don't love each other, but they aren't going to go down this road to Crazytown. 

Trump is already in Crazytown. He's the mayor. He says this crap to get us to react to it. Marshall is very astute that this bullshit is bullshit for bullshit's sake. He wants you to react to the next outrage. 

The proper tone to adopt for this is mocking, not alarm. Don't let Grampa Shoutypants live in your head. He poses a threat to many things, but Canada isn't one of them.

Which is a shame, because annexing Canada would make it impossible for Republicans to win elections anymore.

America Has A Christian Problem

 This is a good explanation of why those who consider themselves the most devout Christians have consistently backed a man of literally no morally redeeming qualities.

And, yes, it's terrifying.

The Hidden Realignment

 A lot has and should be said about the movement of the college educated into the Democratic Party. It is "bad" if you get people engaged in what James Carville called "Faculty Lounge Politics" about land acknowledgements or whether feminism can properly include trans women. 

However, the hidden strength of this is that Democrats are now the party that votes, regardless of the election. The most important question about 2028 - aside from whether or not we have a free and fair election - is whether a non-Trump MAGA can mobilize his voters. It's a cult of personality and those are very tricky to transfer. It's also another reason why, if American democracy truly dies under Trump, Merrick Garland's fecklessness will be among the leading causes of death.

How Crazy Is He?

 Paul Krugman asks that question of Trump, and it's the central question in global politics right now. Yes, there was the batshit insane presser he had yesterday. I'm sure the media is thrilled to have "content" to cover.

Trump's threats to invade - in no particular order - Greenland, Canada, Mexico and Panama are most likely just his usual bloviating bullshit. He probably feels that attention has not been lavished on him in adequate tonnage, so he's started saying crazy nonsense so that people will start talking about him.

Krugman, however, looks at his economic statements and the central conflict between the Republican Economic Daddies who just want some tax cuts, eviscerating the regulatory and welfare state and maybe some pardons, because why the hell not and the MAGA hordes. The Republican Daddies want a few targeted tariffs, maybe a few symbolic deportations to keep the rubes happy and then let the Biden Economy hum along in it's very prosperous traces.

Trump is having none of that, at least rhetorically. The Greenland nonsense is likely just nonsense, so that makes it plausible that he will, in fact, acquiesce to the Daddies in Wall Street. However, he's increasingly coming under the influence of the Tech Broligarchs, and they have some weird economic ideas.

What Krugman notes is that bond markets - the sober older brother of the wastrel gambler that is the stock markets - have basically looked at his statements and said, "Yeah, he's going to deport people and have huge tariffs." Now, those tariffs will almost certainly be for sale. If you grease Trump's palm, he will exempt your supply chain, while punishing your rival's. That's why so many companies are supplicating themselves before Trump; it's why the Washington Post is going to go into the shitter soon. Bezos can't afford to anger Trump.

We will see if Trump actually goes Full MAGA on his tariffs and deportations. Again, the "best" outcome is that he does so and tanks the recovery, from which his reputation and popularity never recover. The bond markets seem to think that's what's going to happen.

UPDATE: I do like how the more social media savvy Dems, like Eric Swallwell and Chris Murphy have greeted all this imperial bluster with a refrain of "How does this make eggs cheaper?" Keep hammering that.