The Slow Drumbeat Of Doom

 Obviously, one of the drumbeats of doom is for Democrats with a lot of early public polling showing a dead heat with a slight Trump edge. However, the predictive power of polls this far out is historically weak. There's also the trend for shitty GOP pollsters like Rasmussen to flood the zone and warp the polling averages. Lots of polls have Biden losing huge amounts of ground to Black and Gen Z voters that seems...dubious. 

Still, it remains sadly possible that Trump wins in November. I can't believe that's true, but the data suggests it is. I don't think it will happen, but it could.

One other thing that looks very likely is that Democrats should gain control of the House. In fact, that could happen sooner than you think. Ken Buck's retirement next week was done for two reasons. The first was that this will lead to a special election in his district that a Republican will likely win, but that will create an incumbency advantage for whomever wins over feral howler monkey, Lauren Boebert who is switching to his district. Basically, he's retiring to fuck over Boebert, who he understandably loathes as an avatar of the chaos and idiocy of the Republican House. 

TL;DR: Everyone in the House GOP hates each other and doesn't even want to be around each other.

Buck's retirement also further reduces the razor thin margins in the House. Right now, there are 218 GOP members and 213 Democrats. There is a special election coming up that could boost Democrats to 214. Still, the House GOP caucus is a Covid outbreak from losing their majority. As Chip Roy (R-TX) put is, there is no reason to reward the GOP with control of the House. 

If there was some way for the Democrats to have control of the House for a few weeks this spring you could get the Ukraine package passed, a new budget and maybe a Roe bill (which would die in the Senate, but whatever, it would lay clear stakes for November).

The topline story of Trump possibly being reelected is depressing as hell. It's depressing because of how manifestly unfit he is for dogcatcher, much less president. However, the GOP itself is pretty toxic, too. Hopefully, that will seep in before the real polls open.