The indefensible decision for the Supreme Court to hear Trump's bullshit immunity case in late April rather than yesterday (if at all) means that the most consequential case facing Trump - Jack Smith's January 6th case - will not go to trial before July at the very earliest. This is really bad news, as the ability to prevent a nakedly dictatorial caudillo from winning the election sure seems to hinge on a felony conviction. The reason that this is so is...insane, but here we are.
Which brings us to the two state cases against Trump. At the moment, of course, Trump has been found guilty of fraud in three separate incidents: Trump University, the Trump Foundation and now the Trump family business. He has been found by a jury to have committed sexual assault and defamation. Colorado and possibly Illinois are trying to kick him off the ballot for being an insurrectionist. The Supreme Court's decision to short circuit the trial about his attempts to launch a coup means that there are three remaining cases.
One, the Georgia case, is tied up in the poor judgment of Fani Willis, but that one could go to trial sooner rather than later. The classified documents case is under the supervision of Trump's de facto defense attorney, Judge Loose Cannon. Sneaking under the radar is the NY case that Alvin Bragg brought.
The case drew some harumphs from various legal scholars, because it has a novel theory at the heart of it. Basically, Trump falsified financial documents to hide his hush money payments to Stormy Daniels (and I think others). This constitutes a violation of federal campaign finance law, but by falsifying documents in New York to cover up a federal felony, Trump committed a felony under NY law. This mixing of federal and state law is now being evaluated by the judge.
Providing the prosecution can prove that Trump falsified those records (and there's some worry that Michael Cohen is too central to their case), and the legal theory holds up, then Trump could be convicted before Memorial Day.
However, it IS the weakest of the three felony cases, because of the somewhat novel legal doctrine. Bragg is stretching a bit.
This is like putting Al Capone in jail for tax evasion, but on the other hand, they really did put Capone in jail.
The most hilarious result would be a Trump conviction, but with a minimal prison sentence of 6 months. This would put him in jail through the election, releasing him just in time to face the more serious charges.
Ideally, the Georgia case gets fast tracked and attains a conviction, but Bragg's case has the clearest route to a trial. In fact, Trump's team is hoping to win an acquittal, which would be be damaging to the overall message that Trump is a massive crook. Hopefully, a New York jury can find a way to overturn the disastrous decision of the Supreme Court to effectively preclude a federal trial before election day.
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